Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. I’m pleased to say we’ve passed 100 subscribers in the past week. It may not sound a lot, but building this from zero has been a journey! Thanks to both those who’ve signed up recently, and those who’ve been reading for longer - your support keeps me writing these every week! And now, to the week in news:
COP25 is continuing in Madrid, although many are becoming frustrated at the lack of meaningful progress - Greta Thunberg spoke out to say that effectively, the school strikes have achieved nothing - despite huge shifts in public sentiment, leaders are still not taking climate change seriously. Here in the UK, as we approach what is likely to be decisive election, XR are continuing to protest, with protestors shutting down a road over air pollution, and hunger strikers outside the Conservative Party HQ now entering their 4th week without food.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 411.07 ppm
This time last year: 408.47 ppm
This week saw the publication of a paper validating climate models back to the 1970s - researchers found that nearly every major climate model has been accurate in predicting the effects of temperature rises with respect to CO2. This flies in the face of decades of repeated criticism of such models, claiming that they’re inaccurate or flawed. It doesn’t undo the damage already caused, but may help annul similar concerns going forward.
Alaska’s glaciers are melting at an unprecedented rate, after record temperatures this year, making Alaskan ice one of the main contributors to sea level rise currently. Droughts across southern Africa have caused Victoria Falls to almost completely dry up. Some 45 million people in the region are currently suffering from food shortages from drought-induced crop failures.
Australia is continuing to burn, with Sydney blanketed in smoke after a number of bushfires have converged north of the city. The smoke is reported to have spread as far as New Zealand, 2000km away. Analysis of forest fires in Indonesia shows that this year they have released 22% more CO2 than those in the Amazon, releasing emissions on par with the entire of Canada. This is one reason that overall human-caused CO2 emissions are up 1.3% this year - emissions from land-use (including deforestation) are up 5% from last year, despite fossil fuel emissions increasing less than previous years.
The oceans are also not faring so well, with a new report highlighting drops in oxygen levels in many sites - some areas are seeing a 40% loss. This is due to a combination of climate change and ocean run-off, and will likely hit the largest fish first - sharks, marlin and tuna. 14 seafaring nations have looked into the effects of climate change on fishing, and suggest that unchecked climate change could devastate fisheries and reef tourism, as reefs die off and fish migrate to cooler waters.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation is from CarbonBrief once again, and shows CO2 emissions by fuel over time. Whilst we should celebrate the slowing of emissions growth this year, this chart shows that we’re not out of the woods yet by a long way.
A commercial path to decarbonisation?
This week has a lot going on on the news department, so I’ll keep things short here. A story that caught my eye this week was an announcement by Repsol that they’re aiming to become a net zero emission company by 2050. This on its own would normally not be that unusual - such declarations are becoming more common as consumers become more savvy - but for a couple of details. Firstly, Repsol is a fossil fuel company, and secondly, they actually seem to mean it.
Now, I’ll happily admit to not being a fan of fossil fuel companies. They’ve lied, deceived and actively fought against climate change science, and continue to try and greenwash and obfuscate the issue to this day. However, they’re also huge companies with an enormous amount of power, so if they do genuinely commit to changing, they can move the needle significantly. So why do I think Repsol are any different in this case?
The important thing about their announcement is that they’ve tied senior staff pay to their decarbonisation targets. This means if they don’t meet their targets, they’re going to end up with a lot less money. And as we’ve discussed in the past, the world as it is now revolves around money, so tying such incentives to pay seems like the most concrete way to change.
Is it perfect? Heck no, but we’re in a place now where we need whatever we can get, and if we can get fossil fuel companies to change (even if for entirely selfish reasons) then I’ll take it - we can sort out blame after we’ve stopped the planet from melting. It’ll definitely be worth keeping an eye on Repsol and seeing how things work out once the immediate media spotlight has passed on.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The White House has been blocking investigations by the EPA’s attorney general into a controversial decision by ex EPA administrator Scott Pruitt to push through a decision easing regulations on older, more polluting heavy trucks.
US states have cut some 4400 environmental agency jobs in the past decade. 30 states have cut budgets, and 40 have cut staff, with only California having made significant increases in both.
The US has become a net exporter of petroleum for the first month in 70 years, with production likely to outpace primary energy demand by 30% by 2030.
The revolving door continues, with an ex-Ford lobbyist taking over the mantle of Energy Secretary. The previous appointee, Rick Perry, has stood down after being caught up in the ongoing impeachment proceedings.
Michael Bloomberg’s America’s Pledge has released a report suggesting that even without federal support, the actions of individual cities and states could still reduce US emissions by 37% by 2030.
The US has sent a delegation to COP25, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirming ‘we are still in’. However, the US has also been trying to negotiate away its commitments on climate damages to poor countries.
Washington State Ferries, the world’s second largest ferry operator, has committed to switching its fleet to battery electric from diesel. Their annual fuel consumption is currently on par with that of a ‘midsize airline’, and as such, the change will pay for itself relatively quickly.
A former advisor to Trump says the President wanted to start a public clash over the accuracy of climate science, but was talked down by White House officials.
Other News
Denmark has adopted a binding law to cut emissions 70% by 2030, versus 1990 levels. It also binds Denmark to international climate engagement - they will provide reports on the international effect of Danish policy, as well as how the country is driving international climate action.
The EU is likely to miss its 2030 emissions reduction target. It’s currently likely to reduce emissions by 30% versus 1990 levels by 2030, against a target of 45%.
BNEF have published their 2019 Battery Price Survey. Battery prices have fallen nearly 50% in 3 years, and look likely to hit $100/kWh in 2023 - an oft-touted tipping point for widespread electrification.
China has raised its targets for electric cars to 25% of all new sales by 2025. The Chinese EV industry has been hit hard by cuts in subsidies as the government tries to wean it off subsidies. On a global scale, the move to EVs is causing car makers to cut 80,000 jobs as they race to retool and change skill sets.
Lumos Global BV, a Dutch provider of off-grid solar power, has announced plans to power 1 million homes in Nigeria. The country only has 60% electricity access, and Lumos have already fitted more than 100,000 homes with their systems so far.
South Korea is to shut a quarter of its coal-fired power plants over winter to reduce air pollution. The country is struggling to tackle dust levels, with some blaming China for air pollution over the Seoul area.
A new study links unseasonably hot weather to premature births, potentially linking climate change to a number of infant health problems.
Europe is planning to expand the Copernicus system with a new network of satellites to track CO2 levels in more detail than was previously possible.
Saudi Aramco has raised $25.6bn in the world’s biggest IPO, valuing the firm at $1.7tn.
Long Reads
A dive into the murky world of e-waste recycling, and those who track down what really happens to your old electronics after you hand them over.
A look at passive investment funds, and how they make it harder to divest from fossil fuels, and what alternatives are out there.
The Arctic is changing, and shifts there could have knock-on consequences for much of the rest of the world.
SUVs have hit the headlines recently for their impact on the environment. But what does the future hold for such vehicles?
Spain’s left-leaning government is one of the first in Europe to endorse a Green New Deal, but the structure of the EU makes it difficult in practice to pull off such a feat.
The NYT has an interactive feature demonstrating what different levels of air pollution look like. A recent paper highlighted how risks from air pollution decrease within weeks once pollution levels drop.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and give yourself a pat on the back if you made it all the way to the end! If you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com), and if you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it! See you next week,
Oli