Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. This week’s edition is back to normal after the holiday period, although I should note: next week, there will be no newsletter! That’s right, there’ll be a one week break, as I’m taking my first holiday in nearly a year. Hopefully you’ll be able to survive without climate news for a short while!
Over the past few weeks, I've been considering the future of this newsletter. I want to keep it free in its current form, as I feel that climate news is not something that should be paywalled, but I also need to pay rent! As such, I'm exploring options for a paid subscription where I can examine climate topics such as the switch to renewables, transport, energy storage and more, in greater depth. What do you think? Would you be interested in an extra article every week or two that explores topics in more detail? What would you like to see covered? Let me know!
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 413.09 ppm
This time last year: 409.55 ppm
Australia’s wildfires have absolutely dominated the climate news feed this week. They’re so dramatic, I’m actually going to dedicate this week’s feature to them, so I’ll run through the other climate stories first. A paper released this week showed that climate change is now detectable from any single day of global weather. This is another nail in the coffin of naysayers who use arguments along the lines of ‘the planet can’t be warming, as it’s cold today’.
Jakarta has suffered catastrophic flooding, killing over 60 people, and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. The cause? The most intense period of rainfall since records began, over 20 years ago. More heavy rain is predicted in the coming days, so this situation may well get worse. Around 40% of the city lies below sea level, and areas of the city are actively sinking as groundwater is being pumped out faster than it can replenish. The Indonesian government is already planning to move the administrative capital to a new site on the island of Borneo.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation comes via Bloomberg, and emphasises that despite the push for lower targets and more aggressive climate policy, we’re currently on track to hit 3°C of warming by the year 2100.
An Apocalyptic Vision of the Future
Australia is on fire. Really on fire. This current fire season has seen record temperatures across the country, and combined with drought conditions, much of the country has become a tinderbox. Some 5 million hectares have burned since September, and the fire season still has several months to go. Ash has spread as far as New Zealand, blackening glaciers there, and an estimated half a billion animals have been killed. News feeds everywhere have been filled by photos of apocalyptic skies painted various shades of red, orange and yellow.
New South Wales has been particularly hard hit, with a high risk of continued burning this week causing the third enactment of a state of emergency in as many months, and the largest peacetime evacuation of people in the country’s history, as locals and tourists alike are rushed out of affected areas. At least 20 people have been killed so far, and thousands of homes destroyed, with the likely costs spiralling into billions. In some places, the fires are so intense that they’re generating their own weather, causing ‘pyrocumulonimbus’ clouds, which can lift smoke and ash into the stratosphere, and spread fire even further.
Many have called this out as a sign of things to come - whilst this year may well be an outlier, it fits a general trend seen around the world of such events getting more extreme as temperatures rise and the world changes. Wired even suggested declaring a new era - the ‘pyrocene’.
Another marked trend in the Australian disaster has been the mismatch between the political response and that of those on the ground. Australia’s PM spent part of December on holiday in Hawaii, only returning as he realised that it might not be the best look. Heading to fire-struck areas for a photoshoot, many refused to engage with him, openly calling him an idiot. Morrison has been repeatedly challenged over his refusal to admit a link between the fires and climate change, although that may change with the pressure of recent events. The previous PM, Tony Abbott, was on Israeli talk radio this week, claiming that the world was ‘in the grip of a climate cult’.
Australia has also struggled with the response to the fires. Whilst fire-fighters have battled valiantly, they are largely volunteers, and are drained after fighting such huge fires for weeks. The PM finally gave into calls to give them some compensation, finally allocating a token amount after weeks of protests. Celebrities seem to be doing a better job of raising money than the PM, although many are calling for the bill to be laid at the door of fossil fuel companies. Emergency services have been calling for additional funding for years, but have been ignored until now, when it’s largely too late to make major changes.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
Total US emissions dropped 2% last year, almost entirely due to a significant drop in the use of coal for electricity production.
FEMA’s annual National Preparedness Report, detailing the greatest threats and hazards to the country, has been released, and it makes no mention of climate change, drought or sea-level rise.
The Trump administration is to remove consideration of climate impacts from environmental reviews for major projects such as highways and pipelines, making it much harder for environmental groups to challenge concerning projects.
The Trump administration is likely to approve a huge new solar farm near Las Vegas, that would be the largest in the US at 690MW. They may also approve a 3GW wind farm in Wyoming, which would be the largest wind farm in the US if built.
Ships docked at port are rapidly becoming one of the largest sources of emissions in southern California. Regulations are being tightened to force ships to use shore power, but both ports and ships have been fined for violating rules in recent years.
2020 may be the year of court cases against pipelines, with many pushing back against the use of eminent domain rights by pipeline companies to acquire both private and state-owned land.
Federal agencies, despite being required to consult with tribes over large projects such as pipelines, have been neglecting their responsibilities, and some tribes are being consulted minimally if at all.
Trump went on a bizarre tirade against wind turbines over Christmas. The arguments were unclear, but at least we’re clear that he knows windmills very much.
Other News
Norway is about to open a huge new oil field in the North Sea. Despite not officially being open, it is already the largest producing field in western Europe.
The Kremlin has released a report looking at how Russia can adapt to climate change, but also highlights the advantages to the country. Russia is currently warming around 2.5x faster than the world as a whole, with temperatures predicted to be 16°C warmer than typical this week.
Germany has cut rail fares for the first time in 17 years, as Deutsche Bahn passes on VAT reductions on rail travel put in place as part of a wide-ranging package of climate measures. The company expects around 5 million additional passengers this year.
Amazon has threatened to fire workers who have spoken out about the company’s environmental impact. Whilst the rules against speaking out are not new, this is one of the first times that they’ve been actively enforced.
The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are launching the 'Earthshot' prize to support efforts to tackle climate change.
An Oxfam project has shown that the average Briton will emit more CO2 in the first two weeks of this year than average citizens of any of seven African nations will in an entire year.
Long Reads
The New York Times profiles a number of people from families that worked in the fossil fuel industry, who’ve chosen to move into renewables as the winds of change beckon.
A look at some of the satellites used to measure the environment and provide detailed tracking of climate change as it happens.
The Guardian imagines what the world of 2050 could look like, and it’s not a pleasant vision.
A quick dive into how geopolitics may change as the world moves away from fossil fuels towards other energy sources.
A look at the impact on the German economy of the coming shift to electric vehicles.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it! See you next week,
Oli