Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. Merry Christmas, to those of you that celebrate such things - hopefully you’re enjoying a well-earned break for at least a short while, because this year has definitely been a long and tiring one. I’ll try and put together a bit more of a review of the year as a whole for next week, but for now, there’s still plenty of climate news - climate change doesn’t have a festive break (although I’ll forgive you this once if you want to look away from the worst of things!).
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 411.89 ppm
This time last year: 409.32 ppm
Australia’s weather continues to break records, with this week seeing the hottest day on record - with an average max temperature of 40.9°C across the country. The country’s fire risk is also at record levels, with every single state and territory experiencing dangerous fire weather at some point over November and December. The country’s bushfires have now emitted CO2 equivalent to almost half the country’s annual emissions. Even in normal conditions, it would take decades for forest regrowth to reabsorb this, but given current drought conditions, experts think it unlikely that forests can regrow and mitigate the emissions from this years’ fires.
Meanwhile, in Europe, a pair of massive storms have raged across Spain, Portugal and France, bringing high winds and heavy rain. Thousands of homes have been left without power, and 9 people have been killed.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation from the Guardian shows the Forest Fire Risk Index in Australia for every spring since 1950. This year’s enormous peak highlights the intensity of conditions there right now.
I’m going to keep things brief this week, given it’s the festive period, so there’s no focus feature today, but there’s still plenty that’s gone on in the climate world in the lead-up to Christmas.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
Congress has passed a new spending bill increasing clean energy funding by 14% versus last year, allocating $5.5bn across five sectors. The same bill extends 30% tax credits for wind projects by a year, although solar projects will see cuts in similar credits from next year.
A coalition of Eastern US states are planning an ambitious cap-and-trade scheme to cover tailpipe emissions from the transport sector. The scheme would cover more than 20% of the US population, and money raised would go towards clean transportation infrastructure.
A mining company has been secretly collaborating with the governor of Alaska to lobby the Trump administration to push ahead with a mining project that the EPA has warned would decimate the world’s most valuable wild salmon habitat.
The Trump administration is blocking a rule designed to phase out incandescent bulbs in favour of more energy efficient lighting, a move that some have estimated will cost consumers $14bn in extra energy bills annually.
A study of a large oil well blowout in Ohio in 2018 found that the methane emitted was far higher than previously thought - equivalent to about ¼ of Ohio’s reported annual oil and gas methane emissions.
During Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the Texas state environmental agency shut down air quality monitors to protect the equipment, missing numerous chemical incidents that occurred in the following week. They then declared air quality safe, despite not having the data to conclusively tell.
The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has told the largest US grid operator to force state-subsidised solar and wind electricity providers to raise prices. Environmental groups have labelled it an attempt to protect fossil fuels.
Mike Bloomberg has unveiled his plan to tackle natural gas and coal power in his bid for the Presidency, focusing on measures that wouldn’t require the backing of Congress, and that could be passed in a single term.
The bankruptcy proceedings for Murray Energy have revealed the amount founder Robert Murray donated to climate denial organisations, once again highlighting the links between fossil fuel companies and denial of climate science.
The much lauded emissions bill announced by the New York governor a few months back has yet to be signed off, and due to wording in some parts, if it is not signed off before January, it may not take effect for another year.
Other News
A landmark Dutch Supreme Court decision determines that people have a fundamental right to be protected from climate change. Aside from forcing the Dutch government to stick to emissions targets, it also could inform other similar cases across the EU and beyond.
Renewable energy became the UK’s largest source of electricity for the 3rd quarter of 2019, narrowly beating out gas (38.9% versus 38.8%). This also marks the first quarter where offshore wind produced more than onshore, although both were upon the same period last year.
German domestic air travel has dropped by 12% over the past year, mirroring a similar trend in Sweden, potentially signalling a shift from air to rail for domestic journeys.
A 40MW solar farm in Bedfordshire has just come online, becoming the UK’s largest subsidy-free solar farm. UK solar installations have been hit by cuts in subsidies, but prices have dropped far enough that plants are going ahead regardless.
Goldman Sachs has committed to not funding Arctic oil and gas drilling or exploration, becoming the first major US bank to do so. It joins European banks such as RBS and Barclays who have already made similar pledges.
Oil and gas is expanding in South America, with Guyana outputting its first oil ever, and Brazil looking to expand drilling in a huge area off its coast. Brazil’s energy minister has said the country ‘could not release its grip on hydrocarbons’.
London is to get the UK’s first ‘emission free’ street - Beech street on the Barbican Estate will undergo an 18 month trial banning petrol and diesel vehicles.
Long Reads
Many First Nations people in Australia fear becoming the country’s first climate refugees as temperatures rise and water supplies dry out.
The NYT uses the Energy Policy Simulator to work out how much investment would be required to clean up the US electricity grid.
Michael Liebreich offers up some reasons as to why peak emissions may be closer than we might think.
Vox looks at a few of the key tree species found in forests in Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and why saving them and others is vital to helping the climate.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it! See you next week,
Oli