Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. This week saw the Doomsday clock tick to 100 seconds from midnight, the closest it has ever been, in part due to the ever-growing issue of climate change. In the wake of the Davos conference, which saw verbal spats between Greta Thunberg and both Trump and his treasury secretary, Bloomberg published a list of the 10 billionaires who’ve made the most from fossil fuels (it’s worth noting that their combined wealth of $537bn is about 9 times that of the richest 10 clean energy billionaires).
I mentioned in my bonus post this weekend that I’ve been working on options to support this newsletter financially. After some encouraging feedback, I’ve decided to launch subscriptions at the end of February, at a price of £5/month, or £50 for a year. Right now, the main thing that buys you the fuzzy warm feeling of supporting the project, but going forward you’ll start to receive extra content around 3-4 times a month, such as the piece that went out this weekend (there’ll be a couple more of those over the course of February).
I should make it clear, that for those of you that just want to read the core newsletter (such as the one that you’re reading now) - you don’t have to do anything - that will continue to be free. However, I hope that a few of you will join me in exploring where we can take this project! As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this change (good or bad!). Thank you for supporting Forge the Future already, through subscribing, reading and sharing - I really appreciate it.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 413.65 ppm
This time last year: 412.19 ppm
Major flooding has hit southeast Brazil, killing 46 and displacing 25,000 people, in the heaviest 24 hour period of rain since records began, 110 years ago. It comes exactly one year after floods in the same region, Minas Gerais, triggered a dam collapse that killed 250. Further north, the Panama Canal is suffering from a lack of water, with low rainfall and increased water demands from Panama City limiting the rates of ship traffic.
In Bangkok, high levels of pollution have caused nearly 450 schools to be shut, with PM2.5 levels at twice that deemed unhealthy. A new investigation has found that levels of the potent greenhouse gas HFC-23 have increased at record rates, despite the main sources of the gas, India and China, both claiming to have all but halted emissions in 2017.
CarbonBrief published the latest of their ‘State of the Climate’ reports, summarising just how much the world is changing, and how fast. The Met Office also published their forecasts for CO2 levels in the coming year, and it’s grim, albeit unsurprising, reading. They estimate that CO2 levels will potentially peak over 417ppm, and this may be the first year where levels will remain above 410ppm year round. A new report puts the total cost of natural disasters over the past decade at $3tn, over $1tn more than the previous decade. Whilst many of the largest disasters were the usual suspects (earthquakes, hurricanes, and similar), what were previously considered ‘secondary’ perils (such as wildfires, floods and drought) are becoming more frequent and more costly.
Visualisation of the Week
In a report covered by The Guardian, it was announced that world material consumption has passed 100bn tonnes per year, growing 8% in the last two years, whilst reuse of resources has fallen.
To CCS or not to CCS - that is the question
Cicero published an interesting post recently about the need for CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) in meeting the Paris Agreement targets on global warming. CCS is one of those groups of technologies that seems to polarize many in the climate change space - some love it, and others loathe it. However, the point made by Cicero is a very valid one - the sheer scale of the decarbonisation problem we face might mean that we have to embrace CCS, regardless of how we feel about it.
CCS is definitely not without its flaws. It comes in many forms - capture could consist of Direct Air Capture (pulling CO2 directly from the atmosphere), enhanced weathering, good old fashioned trees, whilst storage can take the form of pumping CO2 into old oil wells, injecting it into rock formations, and more. Each has different pros and cons, and some are decidedly riskier than others, and most are unproven at large scale. It’s also seen by some as a tacit licence to pollute - if we remove emissions from the atmosphere, then that means we don’t have to push as hard to limit new emissions.
It’s not an invalid argument, but ultimately, what it comes down to is a question of time and scale. We have a relatively short timeframe in which to reduce net emissions to zero, in order to limit global warming to 2°C (or 1.5°C, though that is looking less and less likely). That’s already a huge task, requiring massive, widespread change and global coordination. Complicating things further are a number of industries that are just plain hard to decarbonise - aviation, long-distance shipping, cement, steel. Yes, we can reduce our needs for some of these. But realistically, the world will stop functioning without them, so we need another way to mitigate these emissions. CCS isn’t perfect, but it might be the only way we can mitigate these hard-to-decarbonise industries in the time we have left. It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to decarbonise them over a longer timeframe, it just gives us more options. And right now, with the planet warming around us, we need all the options we can lay our hands on. Climate change is a hugely complex challenge, and solving it means solving many sub-problems.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The Trump administration has finalised its rollback of protections for wetlands, streams and groundwater, in what is seen as a huge victory for farmers and fossil fuel companies, and a massive blow for environmentalists.
The EPA has been letting cities delay or otherwise diminish plans to upgrade their sewer systems, many of which are aging, and dump raw sewage into waterways in heavy rains, which are only growing more frequent.
New documents suggest that the recent weakening of environmental federal oversight on major infrastructure projects was put in place after lobbying from BP.
Senior figures in the Interior Department tried to play up pollution from wildfires to promote more logging in California’s forests.
A new report puts levels of PFAS in US drinking water far higher than previously thought. The chemicals do not break down in the environment, and the EPA has failed to set enforceable limits on them, despite knowing about the issue since 2001.
Massive plans to protect NYC from storm surges have come under fire as the plans don’t take into account rising sea levels, which could make the project redundant before it is even complete.
Arizona’s largest utility has committed to producing 100% carbon-free power by 2050, and will remove coal from its portfolio by 2031. This follows similar announcements by a number of other utilities across the US over the past year.
GM is to spend $2.2bn converting one of its Detroit plants to produce entirely electric vehicles.
Other News
China is halving its subsidy budget for new solar power projects for the coming year, to $216m, as part of an ongoing effort to remove subsidies entirely for renewables. Finalising the budget earlier in the year reduces uncertainty, which is thought to be behind some of the massive drop in new Chinese solar projects last year.
Carbon emissions from China’s aviation industry could quadruple by 2050. Whilst per-capita emissions are way lower than in the West, China’s size makes them the second largest aviation emitter, and growing fast.
China is to ban many single-use plastics in major cities by the end of the year, with a ban everywhere following in 2022, as the country tries to sort out an enormous waste problem.
The EU is looking to legally lock down its commitments on climate change, and make its Green Deal laws irreversible. It’s also working on measures to force companies to report how they’re preparing for climate change, to improve the environment for green finance.
Low gas prices are likely to hasten Europe’s move away from coal this year, with Dutch gas prices down 50% on last year. Spain’s coal-fired electricity generation has dropped to a four decade low as the utilities plan to quit the fuel entirely.
The UK has started its first climate ‘citizen’s assembly’ consulting the public on climate change. The recommendations from those taking part will be fed into MPs decisions on how to hit the UK’s 2050 net-zero target.
The Philippines is trialing using unrecyclable plastic as fuel for cement production, as well as combining it with asphalt for laying roads, as the country gears up for a $157bn infrastructure push over the next 3 years.
Long Reads
A couple of deep dives from Grist, one on why fertilizer isn’t regulated (but should be) and one on the mess that is regulations on oil waste water disposal (both US-focused).
An exploration of how rapidly permafrost is thawing, and the consequences for the Arctic (and the world).
A podcast featuring Emily Atkin (of HEATED fame), discussing whether it’s irresponsible to have a child as the climate crisis intensifies.
A thought experiment by Saul Griffiths, exploring the idea of low-interest loans to finance rapid decarbonisation.
The BBC travelled with an expedition to survey the Thwaites Glacier, a massive Antarctic glacier which is melting much faster than expected.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it! See you next week,
Oli