Climate Iniquities
Forge the Future #57 - blue-lining, multi-generational water debt, and unequal energy expenditure
Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate.
A quick update on the two tech stories I touched on last week - HEATED and Popular Information dove into more depth on the Facebook fact-checking story, and how climate-denial stories are completely side-stepping the official fact-checking process. Meanwhile, another side of the Amazon story I missed last week was that the company’s emissions rose 15% from last year (this is the first year they’ve released year-on-year data). The climate fund is good, but they’ve got a lot of work to do.
Another big announcement came from BP, who are selling off their petrochemicals business. Whilst great for BP’s image, it unfortunately doesn’t result in meaningful change, as the business will simply continue running under a new owner - it’s just creative accounting.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 414.68 ppm
This time last year: 413.65 ppm
A new study on Chile’s multi-decade tree planting program found that it actually reduced biodiversity, and did little to boost CO2 uptake. It provides a note of caution to other ambitious tree planting programs that trees alone are not sufficient. Another study, covered this week by CarbonBrief, looked at the impact of land purchases by private companies of tropical forest. It found that such purchases accelerate tropical deforestation, and suggests that companies are currently being incentivised to invest in activities that require the destruction of primary forest.
A recent paper links the warming of the South Pole (which has warmed at more than 3 times the global average) to variability in tropical wind patterns. It also found that there are weather patterns in the interior of the continent that induce local changes in climate, which masked warming signals until now.
Visualisation of the Week
A new study by First Street Foundation has found that the number of properties in the US at risk of flooding this year is 70% higher than government estimates. These government estimates don’t account for rain or river flooding, nor climate-change induced storm increases, which result in vast swathes of the US at risk by 2050.
Whilst much is made of rich homeowners in the Hamptons getting taxpayers to shore up their ultimately doomed McMansions, many of those most affected by the First Street flooding study are the poorest and most vulnerable - many communities are in flood zones because it’s the cheapest area. More concerningly, banks and investors are abandoning mortgages and loans to areas in such flood zones - a behaviour dubbed ‘blue-lining’, after the infamous redlining policies where communities (usually black inner-city neighbourhoods) were denied many services, from stores, healthcare, to loans and insurance. Now the same is happening to those that live in flood-prone regions. And unlike the billionaires in the Hamptons, these folks can’t afford to move.
As if this weren’t enough, a study released this week found that there are massive energy expenditure differences between races in the US - black households pay around 15% more, largely because they live in poorer quality housing stock. Housing communities are still largely segregated, and for a variety of reasons, black folks generally end up in worse communities, with lower quality housing.
In another blow, water bills are rising rapidly, due to a complete failing of the US water system. Combine this with punitive measures for those who can’t pay, and you end up with multi-generational water debt, crippling families for decades. Those affected? Those with low incomes - again, often racial minorities. Running water shouldn’t be a luxury.
To top it off, another study from this week found that women exposed to high temperatures or air pollution are more likely to have premature, underweight or stillborn babies - those that survive are more prone to health problems. Who’s most affected by this? Poor, marginalised communities. Seeing a pattern?
These problems are starkest in the US, where wealth and race iniquities run strong, but similar forces are at play around the world. If it were just one factor, it’d be easier to dismiss, but seeing all these stories (and the countless more that pile up) - our society has some deep systemic wrongs. Climate change and COVID-19 are merely the lenses that have revealed these problems, but we owe it to everyone this time to not just paper over the cracks, but to build a fairer, more just society going forward. How? Well, that’s the trillion-dollar question.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
California is to ban sales of heavy diesel trucks and vans by 2045, with increasing quotas for zero emissions vehicles for manufacturers from 2024.
Democrats are unveiling a plan for 100% clean cars by 2035. Given Republican control of the Senate, it’s mostly a wishlist, but gives some indication of what might be expected if Democrats win in November.
A majority of Americans think that the government should do more on the climate. However, there are still significant partisan splits, with particularly older Republicans still not acknowledging the need for climate action.
PG&E is the first major gas utility to come out in support of California’s plan for all new buildings to be electric only. Gas industry groups are heavily fighting the idea.
The Trump administration has approved rail shipments of LNG, despite opposition from environmental groups and 15 states, who are concerned about safety and potential environmental damage.
Ford has announced that it will be carbon neutral by 2050 - the first US carmaker to align itself with the Paris Agreement goals.
A new program by the EPA is allowing the donation of stoves deemed too dirty to sell to tribal nations and Appalachian communities. They could be replacing worse alternatives, but are still potentially putting more pollution burden on already vulnerable communities.
New York has announced $10.6m in grants to help low-income households and communities install solar energy.
Other News
The French President Emmanuel Macron has promised €15bn for a greener economy, the day after his party was soundly trounced in local elections by the Greens.
The Committee for Climate Change has warned the UK government that they risk ‘egg on their face’ if they don’t step up efforts to meet the country’s 2050 net zero goal. CarbonBrief have analysed their report in depth and summarised the key findings.
Battery industry insiders have warned that a shortage of lithium could be ahead, though caused by a lack of companies able to refine the necessary chemicals rather than a deficit of the raw mineral itself.
An Icelandic aluminium company has successfully tested a new CO2-free smelting technique that, if rolled out universally, could cut 30% of the country’s emissions.
Long Reads
The story of Norway’s efforts to implement large scale carbon capture and storage - an expensive gamble that could make the country a carbon storage hub.
A look at the EV charging landscape, and how the pandemic recovery could accelerate their roll-out worldwide.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it!
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli