Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. This past week saw the Conservatives gain a decisive lead in the UK elections. Aside from the (many) non-environmental concerns, it’s hard to see this being a net benefit for the environment - the Conservatives have a poor record on climate, and with the UK now set to leave the EU, it seems likely that Brexit related negotiations will trump environmental promises.
I’d like to address something that came up from last week’s issue. A reader kindly noted that Repsol’s net-zero strategy relies on carbon credits, and only covers their scope 1 emissions, which is a pretty major caveat, which I failed to clarify at the time. I do still think linking executive pay to decarbonisation targets is a valid means of helping with corporate compliance, but I’m by no means suggesting Repsol is a saint here - they’re still very much a fossil fuel company through and through!
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 411.32 ppm
This time last year: 409.22 ppm
New data suggests that Greenland’s ice sheet is melting 7 times faster than in the 1990s. The new study suggests that sea levels will be 7cm higher by 2100 as a result versus IPCC-predicted numbers. The data was published by a team of 96 scientists, and is the most comprehensive survey yet of the ice sheet. Another study has found that systematic meanders in the northern jetstream have a strong correlation with heatwaves in multiple major food-producing areas. The patterns can cause hot weather to persist for far longer than normal, and this pattern poses a previously unquantified risk to global food production.
The NOAA has released its 2019 Arctic Report Card. I’ve not had a chance to read the full report yet, but broadly speaking, the Arctic is being hit harder than ever by global warming, with ecosystems and communities increasingly affected by rising temperatures and declining sea ice.
In a rare positive note, 10 species have bounced back after dedicated conservation efforts, including the previously extinct Guam Rail. It once again demonstrates the ability of nature to recover when given the opportunity to do so. Unfortunately the same report highlighted that a further 73 species are declining despite conservation efforts, and more than 30,000 of the 112,432 known species are on the brink of extinction.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation is this excellent ‘carbon bucket’ demonstration from Glen Peters on Twitter, and shows just how little of the 1.5°C carbon budget we have left to use.
COP25 - Lots of talk, little action
Well, COP25 is finally over - the talks dragged on until Sunday lunchtime, making this the longest COP yet. But what really happened there? For a thorough analysis, I as always will refer to CarbonBrief, who have an excellent in-depth run-down of the good, the bad and the ugly. To summarise though: not much happened, and pretty much everyone left unsatisfied.
As mentioned previously, one of the major hopes for this COP was to resolve ‘Article 6’ - the last unresolved part of the Paris Agreement, and the one concerning international cooperation and carbon markets. Unfortunately, despite some progress, a final agreement still wasn’t reached, with countries disagreeing on many major and minor details. Along the way, a consistent theme was that of richer countries trying to shrug off their responsibilities, from the US trying to renege on payments to poorer countries for climate adaptation, to Australia trying to use Kyoto era carbon credits to fulfil its (unambitious) Paris Agreement NDCs.
Many noted a high corporate presence at this year’s COP, with many companies advertising, as well as courting delegates in both public and private meetings throughout. This year marked another first as protestors were forcibly ejected from the meeting halls, with some reports of harsh treatment. Overall, the gap between public sentiment and political will seemed higher than ever, with huge protests taking place outside, whilst inside, delegates squabbled over petty differences and did their best to wriggle out of as many commitments as possible.
Greta Thunberg was prominent at the event, once again cutting through much of the infighting with cutting comments that dove right to the core of the issue:
I still believe that the biggest danger is not inaction. The real danger is when politicians and CEOs are making it look like real action is happening when in fact almost nothing is being done, apart from clever accounting and creative PR.
Finding holistic solutions is what the COP should be all about, but instead, it seems to have turned into some kind of opportunity for countries to negotiate loopholes and to avoid raising their ambition.
In a well-deserved turn, Ms Thunberg was named Time’s Person of the Year, much to the chagrin of a certain US president. It’s ironic in a way, given her repeated disdain for prizes and fame over concrete action, but nevertheless, it highlights just how much she’s helped push the global climate movement forward.
In a way, COP25 was a microcosm of the climate movement as a whole over the past year. 2019 has seen climate awareness rise in the public consciousness like never before. People care, and want change, but thus far it has yet to permeate politics and business fully. Hopefully 2020 will bring a shift in attitudes in these spheres as well.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The US is likely to produce more oil and gas over the next 5 years than any other country in the world. CO2 emissions from oil and gas in existing fields is enough to push the world past 1.5°C, even if coal use stopped overnight and cement emissions reduced.
US flaring and venting of natural gas is at an all-time high, driven by increased fracking, particularly in Texas.
Exxon Mobil has won the case against it in New York. It may set a precedent for other ongoing fossil fuel lawsuits, although this one was strictly about the company misleading investors, rather than the wider impacts of climate change.
California has banned insurance companies from cancelling policies in the state after the recent wildfires. Homeowner insurance is now wildly unprofitable in fire-prone regions, but California is too big a market for the companies to walk away from entirely.
10 of the leading investor-owned US utilities have used more than $1bn of charitable giving to systematically influence policy, politics and regulation in their favour, often at the expense of low-income communities.
The US Forestry Service is allowing a Canadian mining company to write its own environmental report on its mining efforts in Idaho after a lobbying campaign from the firm.
The US’ first steel mills powered by renewable energy are coming online. The steel industry has a lot of decarbonisation to do, but this is a promising first step.
Water company officials knew of lead problems in Flint, Michigan, months before city officials made the first public announcement, according to internal company emails.
Other News
To align with COP25, the EU has unveiled a massive bloc-wide ‘Green Deal’, with sweeping green policies to cut emissions and enable a carbon-free transition. Details are sketchy currently, as the deal was put together in only 10 days, but this push the EU to the fore in tackling climate change.
The EU has approved a €3.2bn battery project, with another €5bn from private sources, in a bid to boost EU battery manufacturing expertise. Another similarly large project is up for approval later in the month.
The world’s first fully electric commercial aircraft has flown in Canada. The converted seaplane has been retrofitted by Harbour Air, who hope to switch over their entire fleet. Two years of testing are required, and the range is only 160km, but there are many applications that could benefit from this.
Chevron have taken a $10bn charge against their holdings in the face of falling oil and gas prices. Oversupply in the market has hit many major companies, including Exxon Mobil, BP and Repsol.
Wind spiked to provide nearly 50% of UK power, driving electricity prices negative for a record length of time. This once again shows the growing market for demand shifting and flexible pricing structures as renewable capacity grows.
BlackRock has raised $1bn for its latest clean energy fund. Clean energy investments are expected to hit $322bn/year by 2025.
500 B-Corp companies have publicly committed to net-zero emissions by 2030. This is just words right now, but given the sustainability/public good focus of many B-Corps, this is a good sign.
An open letter in the Lancet calls for countries to set a deadline for ‘peak livestock’ to limit emissions from animal farming.
The shipping company MSC has leapt into the top 10 emitters in the EU for the first time. Until this year, the list was entirely made up of coal plants, but both Ryanair and MSC have joined the list in recent months.
Long Reads
The NYT dives into the murky world of methane emissions, using a specialist camera to track and visualise methane emissions at various sites in the US.
A look at fire modelling, and efforts to create a new more comprehensive model of how wildfires spread to help in an era increasingly dominated by large fires.
The second part of CarbonBrief’s dive into MOSAiC - the year-long scientific expedition to study the Arctic. If you missed it, find the first part here.
A look at melt lakes in Peru, many of which are potential disasters waiting to happen, due to increased glacial melting and risk of ice falls.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and give yourself a pat on the back if you made it all the way to the end! If you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com), and if you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it! See you next week,
Oli