Corporate Commitments and Ocean Heat
Forge the Future #34
Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. Given the volume of climate news I’ve had to sift through upon my return, it looks like the world has been a busy place during my week away. Last week saw the UN unveil a draft plan to avoid a sixth mass extinction, which calls for the protection of nearly ⅓ of the world’s surface, along with controls on plastics and invasive species.
Greenwashing has come up again, as a new campaign by oil companies has been unveiled recently. 5 major US oil companies have spent $3.6bn over the past 30 years on advertising, with another $2bn spent on lobbying Congress between 2000 and 2016. This comes on the heels of the revelation that Imperial Oil, a subdivision of Exxon, also knew about climate change in the 1960s, and systematically covered it up and campaigned against it. This Twitter thread gives some excellent perspective on the stance of oil companies, and how we should never truly trust them.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 412.82 ppm
This time last year: 410.66 ppm
The Australian wildfires are still making headlines, with huge dust storms seen in NSW, and players in the Australian Open having to play despite conditions being so hazardous that residents were advised not to go outside, let alone play sports. The Brisbane Times ran a piece pointing out the culpability of the media in the current crisis, and James Murdoch, son of the infamous Rupert, called out his father’s media empire for its role in denying climate science. CarbonBrief produced an excellent in-depth summary of the media reaction to the bushfires, and this NYT article has a number of excellent visualisations comparing this year to previous years.
Elsewhere, one of the biggest stories was the confirmation of 2019 as the second hottest year on record, by the NOAA, NASA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. 2019 was 0.95°C hotter than the average for the 20th Century, and just 0.04°C cooler than 2016. The five warmest years have all occurred since 2015, and 9 of the 10 warmest years since 2005.
Ocean heat content also hit a new high in 2019, according to a new NCAR study. The oceans generally aren’t affected by more changeable weather events that affect land temperatures, so offer a more even measure of global temperatures. The past 10 years have been the 10 warmest on record for the oceans, which absorb over 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases.
An ocean heat wave between 2014-16 on the Pacific coast of North America has been implicated in the deaths of an estimated 1 million common murres (a type of seabird). Scientists have spent years studying the various effects on the ecosystem that led to the die off, and have linked it to the higher ocean temperatures at the time.
Puerto Rico has been hit by the most powerful earthquake in a century, leaving some 97% of the island without power. At least one major power plant is likely to be offline for at least a year. The island is still struggling to get back on its feet after Hurricanes Maria and Irma, and has struggled to obtain the funding it deserves from the US government.
Visualisation of the Week
CarbonBrief produced this graph of the CO2 produced by the Australian bushfires, as compared to the 116 lowest-emitting countries, as well as other major sources of CO2.
This week saw a huge announcement from Microsoft - they are to invest $1bn into carbon reduction technologies. This is interesting for a few reasons. One - the sheer scale of the sum proposed - it’s vastly bigger than any similar previous monetary pledge. Microsoft is huge, so $1bn isn’t going to break the bank, but never the less, it’s not pocket change either.
Two - what they’re planning to do with it. Microsoft have had an internal carbon price for some time, and has been carbon neutral through the use of offsets. However, this time, they’re planning to do it properly, through the use of a swathe of carbon negative measures, including DAC, tree planting, better soil management, and BECCS. This means that they’re actually removing carbon equivalent to their operations, as well as investing in much-needed carbon negative technologies.
Three - they’re not only planning to offset their current emissions, they want to negate all their historical emissions since 1975, by 2050. This is big - they’re going to try and erase their carbon impact from history - something that’s not been done by many, if any, major corporations.
It’s really amazing to see big companies step up to the mark like this, and make grand gestures like this. Is it (at least partially) a PR stunt? Of course. Does it negate other negative aspects of the company’s behaviour? Certainly not. But regardless of how you feel about the company as a whole, $1bn towards carbon negative technologies over the next 4 years will move the needle in a big way, and will hopefully inspire other tech companies to front more of their vast stockpiles of cash towards the climate.
It’s also part of a larger trend of companies starting to take sustainability and the environment seriously, as a result of pressure from customers. This week also saw an announcement from BlackRock that they’d be joining the Climate Action 100+, bringing the total managed by the group to $41bn. They long resisted calls to be more active with their huge investment portfolio, but it seems that they’re finally listening, and starting to shift to a more responsible position.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The Trump administration is putting in federal limits on truck pollution. However, this is to preempt states who are considering harsher regulations of their own.
New oil and gas emissions are likely to offset improvements made by the decline of coal in the US. New research suggests that by 2025, US emissions will be up 30% from 2018.
A new investigation has shown that the US Department of Justice is helping oil companies to fight the lawsuits against them.
The Juliana climate case brought by young people against the US federal government has been thrown out. However, the judges’ ruling showed strong support for the viewpoint, and the lawyers for the plaintiffs are planning to appeal.
The rollback of vehicle fuel efficiency increases has gone to the White House for final review. The changes would see annual efficiency increases dropped from 5% to 1.5%.
The NYT runs through the anti-environmental stance of the Trump administration. Of the 20 most powerful people in environmental US government jobs, 15 come from oil, gas, coal, chemical or agriculture, and another 3 come from state governments that have spent years resisting environmental regulations.
Lawmakers in Richmond, California, have voted to ban coal exports from its port, which handles around 25% of all coal exported on the US West Coast.
Other News
The EU has laid out a €1tn green investment plan to fight climate change, which would dedicate around ¼ of the EU budget to the cause.
Total renewables investments were up 1% in 2019, after a sluggish start. China still dominates, but the country’s investments were the lowest since 2013.
The WEF has labeled climate action failure and extreme weather as the top risks facing the world ahead of the Davos conference of world leaders. Greta Thunberg is planning to challenge world leaders at the conference to divest from fossil fuels immediately.
Germany has set a date of 2038 to phase out coal power entirely. It currently produces around 30% of its power from coal, and the deal involves around €40bn in compensation to power plants and mines for the early closures.
Both Barcelona and Spain as a whole declared climate emergencies. Barcelona wants to cut emissions in half within a decade, and Spain is aiming for net-zero by 2050.
Barcelona is to open southern Europe’s largest low-emissions zone, covering the entire metropolitan area, along with some satellite towns.
The UK had 137 days where renewables outproduced fossil fuels in 2019 - a new record. However, overall, low-carbon electricity output (wind, solar, nuclear, hydro and biomass) rose just 1% in 2019 - the smallest increase in a decade.
A report by campaign group Avaaz claims that YouTube is ‘actively promoting’ climate disinformation videos. HEATED has covered this in depth, and The Guardian noted that 100 top brands have adverts on climate disinformation videos on the platform.
Greenpeace and XR were included in a UK counter-terrorism list, alongside neo-nazis and white supremacists. A similar document that included XR recently was described as a mistake by police. Similarly, in the US the DHS listed activists engaged in non-violent protests against the oil industry alongside violent white supremacists.
Long Reads
The last two of CarbonBrief’s articles about the MOSAiC Arctic expedition have been released, covering ‘Atlantification’ and Arctic storms.
An exploration of what it’s like to raise children in an age of climate crisis.
Two pieces exploring the benefits and tradeoffs of mass timber, a potential replacement for steel and concrete in buildings.
An exploration of the measures Australia is taking to prepare for more and more extreme wildfires.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it! See you next week,
Oli