Crisis is never Fair
Forge the Future #42 - oil prices plummet, the economy falters, but the climate continues to warm
Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. This week’s news has, well, been dominated by events other than the climate, but the world carries on, and so shall I!
Oil prices have continued to plummet this week, and are now down over 50% this year. Oil demand is also dropping like a stone due to the effects of coronavirus on the world economy, particularly transportation. It’s looking ever more likely that many smaller oil companies may not be able to weather the storm, and could go out of business. Whilst that is mostly good from a climate perspective, what is more concerning is the thousands of oil wells in the US that are currently in ‘idle’ status. Studies have discovered that many are not covered by cleanup bonds, with around $100m in bonds posted for wells with cleanup costs of over $6bn. Unfortunately, as is often the case, the burden for this will likely fall upon the taxpayer.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 414.11 ppm
This time last year: 412.57 ppm
It’s official - the world had its second warmest winter on record, with December-February clocking in just slightly under the record. Russia had an even hotter winter than elsewhere, averaging up to 12°C above average, and experiencing it’s warmest winter ever. After repeated temperature records over the past few years, it’s sadly becoming the new normal for temperature records to be exceeded.
The most thorough analysis yet suggests that polar ice caps are melting six times faster than in the 1990s, tracking the worst case scenario set out by the IPCC. Without change, it could leave 400m people exposed to coastal flooding each year by 2100.
Africa is still experiencing its worst locust swarms in decades. CarbonBrief examined the complex link between the outbreaks and climate change. Whilst they are likely correlated, as with many climate-related events, it’s hard to point a finger definitively at climate change as the root cause of the current infestation, which has decimated crops and is pressuring food supplies across East Africa.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation shows the change in temperature across the world this winter versus the average.
I was originally planning not to focus on coronavirus too much - it’s all over the news, and this newsletter is about climate, after all. But ultimately, it’s another major global situation, affecting nearly everyone, and the parallels are easy to draw. I consider myself very fortunate - I’m young and healthy, and financially secure enough to weather the storm - I’m likely to come out just fine. However, there are many who are far more vulnerable, either from a health or a job perspective (or both!).
One of the most stark realities of this current situation has been the divide between rich and poor, fortunate and those less so. Whilst some are griping about the difficulties of newly working from home (not to diminish struggles there, especially for those with families), many are facing redundancy as entire industries scale down to survive. As is often the case, those let go are often those at the bottom of the chain, who are most likely to suffer in the current situation. Transportation and services are particularly badly affected, but the effects are rippling across the economy. Gig economy workers are sometimes facing the choice of isolating (as recommended by government) and losing their jobs, or continuing to work, risking themselves and those around them.
There are also those who can’t work remotely, but must carry on regardless - from healthcare workers to police, supermarket workers to garbage collectors, and so many more. They are the unsung heroes, ploughing on despite the risks, because society needs them to. And yet will they be rewarded for their efforts? Unlikely.
So how does this relate to climate? The timelines may be different, but once again, the priviledged will have the luxury of adaptation, of mitigation. We can afford to change, but many cannot. This current crisis is terrifying, but it is also a warning - of what could come if we do not advocate for a fair and more egalitarian society. We need to build a better world, one where all of us can live and thrive, in the good times and the bad.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
The White House is considering offering loans to the oil and gas industry as the impacts of the oil price crash hit home.
In the wake of the oil price crash and plummeting demand, Trump is considering buying up to 92m barrels ‘at a very good price’ for the Strategic Reserve, to save the faltering oil industry.
Indiana is pushing through a bill to make it harder for utilities to shut down coal-fired power plants, and create incentives for them to buy more coal.
A nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania, scheduled to close in 2021, may stay open thanks to the state’s pledge to join the RGGI cap-and-trade scheme.
An Alaskan judge has ruled against the Trump Administration’s plans to open up 1.8m acres of the Tongass National Forest for logging. The now familiar reason? Lack of consideration of environmental impacts.
A new Republican commissioner has been confirmed to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Normally, this would be accompanied by a Democratic pick to maintain balance, but not this time. The new commissioner is already under investigation for bad ethics advice and conflicts of interest.
Oregon’s Governor is fighting back against Republicans who’ve repeatedly run away to block a cap-and-trade bill, by passing a bill establishing emissions reduction goals via executive order.
LA is to replace a 1.9GW coal-fired power plant in Utah with a gas powered plant, that will ultimately run on green hydrogen.
Other News
A new report from the Carbon Tracker Initiative suggests that new wind and solar plants will soon be cheaper than running existing coal-fired power plants in every major global market.
BMW is planning to cut up to 50% of its ICE vehicles from 2021 as it shifts majorly towards electrification.
Only four countries have submitted stronger climate plans for 2020 as part of the Paris Agreement, and three are tiny nations - The Marshall Islands, Suriname, Norway and Moldova.
The EU has published its Taxonomy for sustainable finance this week, laying out a solid framework for green investing in Europe over the coming years. This should help to fix the lack of standards that has plagued green investing in recent years.
The president of the EC has promised to suspend rules requiring airlines to run 80% of flights or lose airport slots, which may put an end to coronavirus-induced ‘ghost flights’ - empty flights run entirely to avoid losing landing rights.
BNEF has released a new report which highlights some of the impacts of the coronavirus situation on the renewables industry. Additions of solar power could fall for the first time since the 1980s, but wind so far isn’t as affected.
Major meat producers could face huge losses from climate change unless they change their business models. One scenario showed that a 2°C rise in temperatures by 2050 would cut profits at 5 of the biggest firms by at least 30%.
The UK budget sees a continued freeze on fuel duty. CarbonBrief have estimated that if duty had continued to rise from 2010, when the freeze began, transport emissions could’ve been lowered by up to 13%. The UK did, however, commit to continuing a carbon price scheme after Brexit, with plans to link their scheme to the EU ETS.
The EU is pushing for a ‘right to repair’ law to force companies to move away from planned obsolescence and reduce waste.
Young climate activists in Asia are changing tactics as coronavirus prevents in-person protests. They are moving towards coordinated online strikes and lawsuits to continue their action.
Long Reads
An exploration of how the skiing industry is adapting to climate change, but only for those willing to pay the higher prices of the elite resorts.
The Indus river basin is under increasing strain from climate change, and rather than working together, the countries in the region are increasingly in conflict over the changes.
A long read on how plastics came to rule the world, and why recycling is not the solution you might think it is.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thanks for reading, and if you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com). If you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it. Finally, with coronavirus growing ever more serious, stay safe out there - these are scary times for all of us.
See you next week,
Oli