Welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly guide to all things climate. Here in the UK, everything is ramping up towards a general election in just over two weeks time. There’s plenty going on around the election, from shifting party dynamics to misinformation, but on the climate front, all the major parties’ manifestos are significantly greener than they’ve ever been. Channel 4 is even hosting the first ever leaders debate on climate change (although Boris Johnson has refused to attend). Whilst much of UK politics has been sucked into the ever-widening vortex of Brexit and polarising left- and right-wing splits, there is at least hope that the climate might not suffer as a result. If you want to dive into the differences between the parties on green policies, take a look at CarbonBrief’s interactive grid.
State of the Climate
CO2 levels this week: 410.19 ppm
This time last year: 408.52 ppm
Australia’s bushfires are continuing to rage, with over 400 homes destroyed and at least four killed by the blazes. Smoke from the fires hung over Sydney this week, briefly propelling it into the top 10 most polluted cities in the world, as visibility dropped to less than 100m at times and residents were warned to stay inside. The fires have now decimated more than 80% of the Koala’s natural habitat, and killed more than 1000 individuals, causing some to question the future of the species. Activists are pressing the Australian government to pass the Koala Protection Act, which would protect habitats and prevent hunting of the animals.
In the US, a new study has indicated that all bar one of the 459 endangered species in the country would struggle to adapt to climate change. The Federal Government currently considers 64% of endangered species at risk from climate change, and just 18% have protection plans in place. In Europe, a new review of insect loss points the finger at light pollution as a major cause. Unlike many other issues, such as climate change, pesticides and habitat loss, light pollution is relatively easy to fix.
Visualisation of the Week
This week’s visualisation comes from analysis of future fossil fuel production, which suggests that we are on track to produce over double the amount of fossil fuels required to stay under 1.5°C of global warming.
The Future of Flying
This week, easyJet announced that they will be offsetting all jet fuel emissions. It’s a bold and welcome move, given that the aviation industry is growing year on year, and currently has done little to tackle its emissions problem. Hopefully it will encourage other airlines to follow suit, although I’m not holding my breath. easyJet has in many ways got off lightly - they bulk-bought offsets at less than £3 per tonne of CO2 - a ridiculously low price - but it’s a start.
It does open up the wider question of what will happen to the aviation industry in the coming years. Aviation is growing fast enough that the non-trivial efficiency gains made by better engines and lighter airframes are completely negated by increased passenger numbers. Indeed, some are reckoning that the industry is reaching the technical limits of what can be done with turbofans, with manufacturers running into reliability issues as they push performance bounds in search of extra efficiency.
There are efforts to look at both electric aircraft and ‘clean’ fuels, but most efforts are likely at least 10 years off given the need for serious testing and scaling of such new technologies. So what does the future look like for aviation? I suspect governments will start to incentivise alternate forms of transport as net zero targets roll ever closer - Germany’s new climate budget calls for incentives for trains and taxes on aviation, for example. I don’t think flying is going away, but I hope that patterns of flying will change. In Europe, with decent pricing and ticketing options, trains can be a good alternative for many short-haul flights.
For long-haul flights, options are more limited, but do we really need to fly long haul that often? Before flying became so cheap and ubiquitous, such long distance trips would be a special affair, maybe once a year at most. Would it really be so bad to return to such a state? I am in no way against travelling - I think it’s vital that people travel and experience other cultures - but given the outsize impact of frequent fliers, I feel there’s definitely room to cut down on the frequency of long haul flying. Sure, there’ll always be a few who genuinely need to fly more often, but for many, it’s about moving away from the mentality that long haul flying is cheap and without consequence.
News Highlights
US vs the Climate
California has experienced yet more blackouts, as PG&E continue their preemptive power shutdowns to try and reduce the risk of wildfires.
US utility NextEra has become the world’s first $100bn utility company, powered largely by clean energy investments.
The Keystone crude oil spill has affected an area of land nearly 10 times larger than originally estimated, although the volume of oil spilled is still thought to be the same.
California has locked down all high-pressure oil extraction, after leaks in Kern County. The announcement also follows an investigation which found that oil regulators in the state had investments in some of the oil companies to whom they were granting drilling rights. The California governor has fired several of the regulators and is pushing for a deeper investigation.
California has quietly changed the rules for buying government vehicles: it will now only buy from manufacturers that supported its bid for stricter emissions. All new government sedans will also have to be either hybrid or electric.
Wisconsin has passed a bill making it a felony to trespass on or damage oil or gas pipelines, which has angered Native Americans who worry that it infringes upon their ability to protest the pipelines which often run across Indian territory.
A large climate protest disrupted the well-known Yale-Harvard football match. 42 were arrested, including actor Sam Waterson, as activists called for both universities to divest from their extensive fossil fuel investments. Support for the activists has been strong, and included Democratic Presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Other News
Clean energy investments dropped significantly in the developing world last year - $133bn was invested in 2018, versus $169bn the year before. The biggest drop was in China, which cut renewable subsidies heavily, but India and Brazil also cut renewable investments heavily.
Climate Change could take up to 3% off world economic growth over the next 30 years. Most of the damage is concentrated in the most affected countries - Africa, South America and the Middle East, but the US could also see a 1% hit.
Two Australian billionaires are building a giant solar farm in the Northern Territory to supply Singapore with electricity. The plant is planned to have a capacity of 10GW, with 22GWh of batteries.
VW is canning all non-electric racing programs as it focuses on electric vehicles. The news comes as F1 announces a plan to be carbon-neutral by 2030.
Goods returns, particularly of online purchases, are on the rise, and their environmental impact is enormous. Aside from the return shipping, only around 10% of the goods are resold, with the rest sent to charities, recycled or simply landfilled.
Psychologists from more than 40 countries have signed a proclamation to use their expertise to combat climate change and its psychological impacts.
China is still building coal plants, despite a move towards scaling back the use of coal. This may be in response to slowing growth, as regions are approving projects to create jobs without oversight from the central authorities.
Germany has passed its new climate legislation into law, with more than $60bn in spending, a fee for carbon emissions and a tax on flying. However, environmentalists say it doesn’t go nearly far enough.
Fast food companies are looking to remove toys from kids meals in a bid to lower plastic use. Campaigners have been trying to get rid of the toys for years, as they encourage unhealthy eating in children, but it seems environmentalism has succeeded where health could not.
The world is on track by 2030 to produce more than double the fossil fuels required to keep under 1.5°C of warming.
The band Coldplay are pausing touring until they can find a way to make the activity more sustainable. Live music was estimated to generate 405,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions last year in the UK.
Long Reads
The New York Times explores the ways that cities have tried to tackle cars, from congestion charges to numberplate schemes.
A look inside the MOSAiC expedition, a year-long Arctic mission to better understand how the Arctic is changing from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
Vice talks to the few scientists still denying climate change, and the organisations that support their work.
The End Times
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and give yourself a pat on the back if you made it all the way to the end! If you’ve any feedback or suggestions for me, I’d love to hear them (you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com), and if you feel like sharing this, I’d massively appreciate it! See you next week,
Oli