FtF News #66 - 2nd September 2020
Wild weather, cheap renewables, and why we still can’t trust the oil industry
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Somehow we’re in September already - 2020 seems to have simultaneously rushed past, and yet moved at a glacial pace. So much of this year has been accompanied by the words ‘unprecedented’ or similar adjectives, and I’m sure I’m not alone in not wishing another 2020 on anyone. However, COVID-19 aside, much of what 2020 brought is, for better or worse, here to stay - the extreme weather, the changing state of our world. As much as we may wish for it, the past is gone, and it’s up to us to make the best of the new, harsher world we now face.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
This has been a week of wild weather the world over. In the US, Hurricane Laura smashed into Louisiana, causing somewhere between $8-12bn in damage, and killing a dozen people. Given it was the most powerful storm to hit the state in 164 years, it could’ve been much worse - it fortunately passed right between Houston and New Orleans, although smaller towns in its path were completely flattened. The area it ran through is one of the major petrochemicals and refining centres of the US, and just shutting down all the facilities and restarting them after the storm had passed emitted around a year’s worth of toxic emissions in just a couple of days. To top it off, the region, which now is largely without power and water for the foreseeable future, is being hit by a massive heatwave, seeing temperatures up to 44°C.
A new study of Atlantic hurricanes suggests that a warmer world could lead to a five-fold greater likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall, with so-called ‘hundred year’ storms happening with far greater frequency across the Caribbean. The average cost of climate-related disasters in the US has already gone up from around $18bn per year in the 1980s to around $80bn in the 2010s - a four-fold increase.
Whilst the US receives most of the attention, there have been severe weather impacts elsewhere as well. Flash floods in Charikar, Afghanistan, just north of the capital Kabul, have killed around 80 people and injured many more. Such floods are not uncommon, but this was severe, and hit at night, heightening the impact. More than 17,000 people in the country have been affected by heavy flooding and rains since the start of the year. To the south, in the Pakistani financial capital of Karachi, unprecedented heavy monsoon rains have flooded large parts of the city, killing at least 15 people.
The latest data from the Copernicus Programme has shown that Arctic wildfires have emitted 35% more CO2 so far this year than the whole of 2019 (which was already a record-breaking year). The peak number of active fire observations hit 600 in late July, versus around 400 in 2019, and an average of 100 between 2003 and 2018.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Plummeting prices
The UK government released a report this week, covered by Carbon Brief, that puts the levelised cost of wind and solar at 30-50% cheaper than previous estimates. This report hails the first time the UK government has publicly admitted that the price of renewables has dropped so fast. The price predictions put the price of electricity from onshore wind or solar at half that of gas-fired power in 2025, with solar coming in at 50% cheaper than the government’s 2013 figures, and offshore wind at 47% cheaper than figures published in 2016. It’s also notable that the price predictions of nuclear are entirely unchanged - given the unpopular and pricey nature of nuclear power in the last couple of decades, it could be that the government is finally capitulating. The report also puts in favourable predictions for gas with CCS (carbon capture and storage), suggesting that it sees this as a viable option for the future.
Quartz dived into the impact of Apple and Google on the Taiwanese renewable energy market this week. Apple’s recent green pledge relies heavily on suppliers improving their own energy, but Taiwan lacks large amounts of renewable energy to buy. However, the company helped push through regulatory changes allowing a market for renewable energy certificates, which in turn allows some of their suppliers, including major chip makers like the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, to buy up power from new wind farm developments.
Concrete carbon
If you’ve dived into the sources of CO2 around the world, you may well be aware of concrete’s role as one of the most difficult emissions sources to decarbonise. However, its place as one of the world’s foremost building materials means that we still need to figure out ways to reduce its impact. The New York Times dived into a few of the ways that might be achieved, and the companies attempting to do just that. As with so much of the climate crisis, there’s likely no one silver bullet technology that will remove all the emissions impact, but there are some approaches that look promising, from injecting CO2 as concrete cures to replacing some of the cement used with lower carbon alternatives.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
The Heat is on
Heat is a recurring narrative in this newsletter, much as it is around the world, as the planet warms and more and more places experience temperatures far beyond the norm. A study from 2013 concluded that higher temperatures could be linked to conflict, and it’s possible we’re seeing some of that at play in Libya right now. The country is in a delicate state after the toppling of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and the once solid power grid is struggling amidst a civil war and now a heatwave, which is seeing temperatures over 40°C. Ordinary citizens are taking to the streets in unprecedented protests about the lack of power, which means few can use air conditioning or fans to escape the blistering heat. The whole situation is balanced on a knife edge, and the heat could well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
In another side to heat, the New York Times dived into the heat effects of racist redlining policies on neighbourhoods in a number of cities. Redlined communities are 5-20°F warmer on average than non-redlined communities as a result of a host of policies linked to redlining. The areas generally did not receive parks or trees, and were largely paved and concreted over, leading to ‘heat island’ effects. These neighbourhoods often ended up being the sites for industrial developments like highways, which removed yet more community space. Some efforts are underway to redress the balance, but undoing decades of neglect and underinvestment is a struggle for cities already hard-hit by COVID-19.
Plastic not so fantastic
Leaked documents suggest that the chemicals industry is trying to influence trade negotiations between the US and Kenya. Kenya has some of the strictest plastics policies in the world, enacted after widespread plastic pollution became a huge problem in the country. However, the US chemical giants want to use the negotiations as a lever to repeal those bans, and flood both Kenya and the rest of Africa with plastic that is proving less and less popular at home. Similar tactics in trade negotiations with Mexico and Canada led to massive concessions for industry, and the fear is that Kenya, keen to secure a deal, may end up acquiescing to terms largely created by the plastics industry.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli