FtF News #102 – 19th May 2021
A realistic global net-zero scenario, plastic waste, and the nuance of the climate debate
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
I’ve been thinking a lot about nuance lately. Maybe it’s modern media with its penchant for soundbites, but so many major arguments are reduced to black or white simplicity. Climate is a sea of grey, of ‘well kinda’. You may well have seen coverage of John Kerry’s interview on the BBC, where he talked up future technologies and how there’d be little to no need for Americans’ consumption habits to change. On the other side you have the doomers, those who believe we should cut back everything, and even then, the planet is likely still toast.
I’m not sure which is more damaging – wild optimism, or complete nihilism – but I do know that the world is a vast and complex place, and climate change a still more complex change overlaying that system. We will see damage and destruction alongside some incredible positives. Focusing on one extreme or the other ignores the myriad possibilities that lie between. To be human is to be messy, and though it’s tempting to bundle climate change into a simple binary, to do so would be to deny the fundamental nature of both ourselves and the planet on which we live.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
A new study has found that the stratosphere is actually thinning due to the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. The effect has been known about for some time, but this study is the first to link it to CO2 rather than other origins. The stratosphere is around 400m thinner than in the 80s, and could thin by another kilometre by 2080, potentially affecting satellites, radio and GPS.
A survey of the cities most vulnerable to environmental issues has found that 99 of the most at risk are in Asia. The report looked at pollution, water shortages, extreme heat and natural hazards, and found that globally, 1.5bn people in 414 cities are at high risk from at least one factor. 37 of the top 100 cities are in China, and another 43 are in India, highlighting the scale of the challenges both countries face in the coming years.
Land use may have affected as much as a third of the world’s terrain since 1960 – around four times that suggested by previous estimates. This new study has combined modern high resolution satellite imagery with existing long-term inventories of land use to create one of the most thorough estimates of how land use has changed over the past 60 years on a highly granular level. Land use is both a key source and sink for carbon dioxide, but is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate, so studies such as this may help increase understanding of how humanity is changing the world around us.
The economic impact of droughts on the UK and EU is already severe, clocking in around €9bn per year, but could rise massively in coming years. The key factors are how much warming occurs and how much countries adapt to the changing conditions. If warming is limited to 1.5°C and nations adapt, losses would rise to €12bn per year by 2100, but in the worst case, where warming rose to 4°C and nations fail to adapt, the bill could be as much as €65bn a year – a cost borne primarily by the poorest countries in the region.
India is dealing with the after-effects of a massively powerful cyclone which struck the north west of the country over the weekend. At least 19 have been killed, and 200,000 were evacuated as the storm struck, bringing heavy rain and cutting power to many. The storm comes as India is reeling from the impact of a vast outbreak of COVID-19. So far, authorities are reporting that hospitals are largely unaffected, but authorities are prioritising reopening routes for urgent medical supplies.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
No Shortage of Ambition
The IEA has published its long-awaited 2050 net-zero scenario report. The agency has become increasingly vocal about the need for climate action, but until now has not published a concrete scenario and goals to achieve net-zero by 2050. That has now changed, with a huge report detailing over 400 key milestones that would lead to not only net-zero emissions, but keeping warming under 1.5°C (with a 50% probability), boosting global GDP, and creating millions of jobs. It is not the only pathway that could limit warming, but shows the likely direction the world must take to change direction. The report is designed to inspire more concrete action at the upcoming COP26, and hopefully close the yawning gap between current commitments and where the world needs to be.
As always, Carbon Brief has covered the scenario in great detail, but there are some interesting take-aways. The IEA envisages fossil fuel exploration halting immediately, and fossil fuel usage ramping down sharply in all but a few sectors. They also foresee enormous deployments of renewable energy to support a huge growth in electrification, with 630GW of solar and 390GW of wind being deployed per year by 2030. To put that in context, 2020, a bumper year for renewables, saw 280GW total renewable capacity added. The solar alone would be equivalent to adding the largest current solar park in the world in capacity more or less every day. The changes required are sweeping, and will only come if countries work together – the IEA estimates that a low cooperation future would delay net-zero emissions by as much as four decades.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
The Proliferation of Plastic
An investigation by Greenpeace alleges that up to 40% of the UK’s plastic waste is being sent to Turkey, where much of it is illegally dumped and burned. The volume of UK waste processed by Turkey has risen 18-fold since 2016, and given that the UK has some of the highest per-capita plastic usage in the world, this is a non-trivial problem. Since China’s ban on plastic waste imports in 2017, much of the developed world has started shuttling their plastic debris to a variety of other nations in a bid to delay the inevitable reckoning.
A new report dives deep into single-use plastics in particular, and found that a mere 20 companies produce 55% of the world’s single-use plastic waste. The worst offender is our old friend Exxon Mobil, producing 5.9m tonnes a year, with Dow Chemicals and Sinopec not far behind. 130 million tonnes of single-use plastic was thrown away in 2019, with just 10-15% of that recycled. Australia is the worst per-capita user of single-use plastics, at a massive 59kg per person per year, with the US, South Korea and UK not too far behind.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Uber and Lyft have a messy history with environmental measures. Both companies have talked big on promoting EV usage, but neither have really put their money where their mouths are, often failing to follow through on initiatives. With the heavy footprint of ride-hailing services coming increasingly under the spotlight of late, can they get their act together and go green as they promise?
The history of fossil fuel extraction has often followed colonial lines, and those patterns are still visible today. National Geographic covers the story of Canadian company ReconAfrica’s exploratory drilling in Namibia. Its operations in the country have followed an age-old pattern of ignoring community and local interests, and the company appears to be operating without permits in at least some regards. Profit looks to be winning out over concerns over water and wildlife in a very vulnerable part of the world.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
Spain has passed a major new climate bill banning new oil and gas exploration, and winding down all oil and gas concessions by 2042.
Paris is planning to ban through traffic from the city centre in 2022, potentially removing over 100,000 cars a day from the roads.
Macquarie has become the third of the Big Four Australian banks to announce an end date for coal financing.