FtF News #106 - 16th June 2021
All talk, no action at the G7 summit, Keystone XL is no more, and can supersonic flight be green? (spoilers, but no, it can’t!)
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Last week I touched on the recent milestone reached with atmospheric CO2, with levels exceeding 50% above pre-industrial levels for the first time. Whilst the numbers sound meaningful, I’ve often found it hard to explain their significance to those less versed in the ways of climate change. Fortunately, this week saw a new post from Climate Matters that explains why it’s so important in clear, simple terms. Climate change often gets messy and muddled with so much going on, so having references that cut through to the core of the matter are super useful!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
The Pine Island glacier in Antarctica, already one of the fastest melting glaciers in the world, is accelerating. The glacier is the largest contributor to sea level rise in Antarctica, but has been mostly held back by an ice sheet at its foot. The ice sheet however has been rapidly breaking up in the last five years, losing ⅕ of its mass, and the glacier is already flowing 12% faster since just 2017.
Lake Mead, the reservoir behind the Hoover dam, is now at its lowest level since it was first filled in the 1930s. The lake not only supplies hydroelectric power but water for Arizona, Nevada, California and New Mexico. If the level continues to fall (which is predicted to happen through to 2023), more water restrictions will come into place throughout surrounding states, further exacerbating the effects of the current drought.
The impacts of climate policy are often hard to quantify, but a recent paper analysed over 2,000 climate laws and found that on average, they reduced the carbon intensity of GDP by 0.8% in the first three years after introduction, with the effect increasing to 1.8% in the long term. In more real-world terms, this has meant climate laws implemented by the G7 nations alone led to 1.3bn tonnes of CO2 reductions in 2019. Whilst nowhere near sufficient, it suggests that policies are having real, meaningful effects, highlighting the importance of political support and action.
Speaking of policy, a joint report between the UN IPCC and the Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (try saying that one fast!) found that whilst policies protecting biodiversity had a positive impact on climate change, the reverse was not true. The findings highlight the close links between biodiversity and climate change, and show the need for climate policies to address biodiversity as a priority rather than an afterthought.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
No more Keystone XL
It’s been a long time coming, but the Keystone XL oil pipeline in the US is finally dead – the developers of the project pulled the plug this week after a key permit was revoked in the first weeks of the Biden administration. Attention is now shifting to two other contentious pipeline projects – the Dakota Access Pipeline and the Line 3 project. Both have strong parallels to the Keystone XL project, but the Biden administration has been silent on their future. The Line 3 pipeline in particular was the subject of a huge protest this week, which saw over 2,000 people blocking access to the site, swiftly followed by riot police and mass arrests.
Ever more EVs
BNEF has released its latest Electric Vehicle Outlook this week, and generally, the story is looking positive. EV sales are growing extremely fast, particularly in buses and 2-3 wheelers, where trends suggest electrification is on track for net-zero by 2050. However, more policy is required to bring overall vehicle electrification in line with a 2050 net-zero scenario, in particular for heavier vehicles. Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are starting to electrify, but could benefit from a policy boost, whilst electrification of medium and heavy duty commercial vehicles (we’re talking trucks here) is near non-existent currently.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
G7
The G7 summit wrapped up this week. Despite a planned focus on climate action and environment, very little concrete came out of the conference, bar a reaffirmation of previous pledges to phase out coal power and to fully fund a previous pledge of $100bn/year to help developing economies adapt to climate change. The latter is a particularly sore point – it was announced to much fanfare back in 2014, with the sum promised by 2020. Unsurprisingly, once out of the spotlight, the money has been much slower in appearing.
Just prior to the summit, a study on the impact of the climate crisis on the global economy found that G7 nations will lose $5tn per year by 2050 if temperature rises reach 2.6°C – not a far-flung idea given current trajectories. That sum amounts to 8.5% of GDP on average, although other nations will be hit much harder – India would lose a quarter of its GDP, Australia 12.5% and South Korea nearly 10%.
Supersonic != Green
United Airlines announced a partnership with aircraft startup Boom Supersonic to bring back supersonic aircraft. However, one part of the announcement is of particular note – they claimed that this would be net-zero through the use of SAFs – Sustainable Aviation Fuels. This is a questionable claim at best, given the current state of SAF production (tl;dr there’s not enough, and it’s really expensive), but especially so given we’re talking about supersonic flight. Supersonic aircraft burn 5-7 times as much fuel as subsonic flights and, in the case of Boom, also emit pollutants and water vapour higher into the atmosphere, where they take significantly longer to disperse. This would have a vast impact on the non-CO2 climate impacts of flight, already thought to nearly match the carbon-based impacts.
Speaking of airlines, European carriers are dragging their heels on climate measures. The EU is planning to bring aviation under the EU ETS, whereas airlines would much rather stick to the ICAO’s CORSIA scheme, which is initially voluntary, relies on offsets, and is generally considered rather lax on meaningful targets. The airlines are also complaining about EU moves towards enforcing use of SAFs, claiming it will hurt competitiveness.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Exploitation of natural resources, particularly mining, is often at the forefront of the climate crisis. Often small groups of indigenous people are pitted against large multinational corporations with vastly superior resources in a David vs Goliath battle. However, sometimes the locals win out against the odds – the island of Wagina in the Solomon Islands has seen a fierce battle over mining rights, with islanders protesting a plan to mine 60% of the island for bauxite, but for now, the mine is on hold. Let’s hope it stays that way.
The systemic nature of the climate crisis is a topic I return to again and again – climate change exacerbates all manner of existing inequalities in society. A good example can be found in FEMA, the US emergency disaster relief agency. A study of payouts found that on both an individual and community level, more money is consistently going to white communities than black, despite efforts to redress the balance. However, the reasons go to the heart of systemic inequality in the US – redlining, bureaucracy, existing racial divides in education, income and support. Fixing issues like this means more than reducing emissions, it means repairing long-lived divides in our societies.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
UK businesses have demanded the government produce substantive climate policies before COP26 – currently there’s no concrete plan for heating, hydrogen or transport.
Polish citizens, from youth activists to farmers, are suing their government over its failure to address climate change.
Shell is considering selling its stake in the US Permian Basin shale oil field as part of efforts to reduce emissions.