FtF News #107 – 23rd June 2021
Offsets take another hit, the (western) US melts, and the UK’s climate policy comes under fire
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
I’ve mentioned before that working through each week’s news can be a bit of a rollercoaster ride at times. I try not to shrink away from stories, but some weeks can be seemingly an endless barrage of negative news. This week definitely leant in that direction – there are another half dozen or more stories on the cutting room floor that fell on the negative side of the balance in one way or another. So I was happy to hear that CAT, a climate community I’ve been part of for the past couple of years, has published the second edition of its Branch magazine this week. I’ve only had a chance to skim it thus far, but there’s some excellent looking pieces in there this time. It’s a small thing maybe, but it gives me hope when I see a bunch of folks putting together something as polished as this purely as a volunteer effort, as a passion project.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
One of the founding concepts behind carbon offsets was called into question by a new study released this week. It’s generally been assumed that if a quantity of CO2 is released into the atmosphere and an equal amount removed, then overall CO2 levels will not change. However, the study modelled large emissions and removals and found that as amounts grew larger, an asymmetry emerged, with increased CO2 levels even after an equal amount was removed. It’s too early to say what the exact results are for real world scenarios, but the main message is that preventing emissions trumps even fully removing existing emissions. Where removals are the only option, it may well be the case that more CO2 will need to be removed than was initially emitted to prevent atmospheric CO2 levels rising further.
The western US is cooking this week, with a massive heatwave arriving on top of the existing drought conditions. Nearly 40m people could see temperatures above 100°F (38°C), with some areas peaking at 120°F (49°C). The heat is unfortunately highlighting how poorly prepared many cities are for such extremes of temperature, with the worst impacts falling on poorer households and the homeless. The heatwave and drought are likely exacerbating each other, creating a feedback loop that will only get worse. Whilst conditions may seem bad this year, it’s likely that things will only escalate in the coming years.
The amount of heat that the planet traps has roughly doubled since 2005, contributing to the continued warming of the oceans, air and land. The quantities of energy involved are enormous, equivalent to every person on Earth running 20 kettles each, simultaneously. Due to the complex intertwining of natural and human energy interactions, it’s not clear how much of this change is directly due to human efforts, but it seems likely to be linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Cancelling coal
Much attention has been given to China’s enormous bank of domestic coal fired power stations, as well as to its continued funding of coal power abroad. However, a study this week found that of 52 announced coal power projects with Chinese backing, only one has gone into operation, with over half cancelled or shelved in the past six years. It’s thought that many of the cancellations are due to increased loan prices and higher risk attributed to coal, alongside the ever declining costs of solar power. The value of the cancelled projects totalled over $65bn, with a large portion of those cancellations coming in just the last year.
Running out of road?
The Welsh government plans to freeze all new road building projects as part of plans to reduce emissions. All proposed schemes will have to run through an external review panel before they can be approved. It’s hoped that money saved by the scheme will go towards the addition of new bus and cycle lanes, and sustainable transport infrastructure. Whilst the UK isn’t as car centric as the US, roads often take priority in planning decisions, so this is excellent news. However, it does need to be backed up with more funding for alternative transport means, such as trains, which are extremely variable and often wildly overpriced.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Hot Air
I’ve written before about how the UK talks a good game on climate, but seems to lack meaningful policies to back that up. Well, it seems the Committee for Climate Change (CCC), the official body which advises the government on climate, agrees. This week saw the release of a thorough and strongly worded report, that said the UK government is failing to protect people from the rapidly rising risks of climate change. They describe a ‘willful reluctance’ from ministers towards factoring adaptation into their policies, and ultimately say the UK is at risk of missing its crucial 2050 net zero emissions goal if it fails to take rapid corrective action. The full report is very thorough, compiling over 1,500 pages of evidence from a wide array of bodies, but if you want a more concise overview, Carbon Brief have their usual excellent coverage.
Waste not, want not
An investigation of an Amazon warehouse in Scotland has found that the company is destroying millions of items of stock each year. Lorry-loads of items, 50% of which are still unopened in their original shrink wrap, are carted off to recycling centres and landfill. The company played down the volume of waste, but interviews with a manager at the site showed 130,000 items destroyed in a typical week, and little option for employees to direct spare stock elsewhere.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Big Oil companies have by now become well known in climate circles for their propaganda, famously sowing uncertainty and muddying the waters of climate science for decades. Now, with the boot on the other foot, those same companies are instead fighting for social licence to operate. To do so, a number of them are turning to influencers, making use of the unique hold social media stars have on their audience to convince the public that oil companies are really a force for good in the world.
Net zero targets are everywhere these days, with everyone from small businesses to blocs of nations promising to reach net zero by some point or other. Whilst a good move in the right direction, many of these promises have come under fire for being essentially paper-thin. So what’s the alternative? Dr Jonathan Foley, the Executive Director of Project Drawdown, suggests a five point plan, prioritising actual emissions reductions, addressing historic impact, and incorporating climate justice into every action.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
New South Wales is to scrap tax on EVs as part of aggressive measures to accelerate EV adoption.
Australia has rejected plans for a green energy hub… on environmental grounds.
A Louisiana court has blocked the Biden administration’s suspension of oil and gas leasing.