FtF News #108 – 30th June 2021
A stern warning from the IPCC, improvements to the EU ETS, and a mellowing the US’s new-found climate ambition
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
A friend sent me a link to a ‘place-based’ carbon calculator as I was putting together this week’s newsletter. I’m generally a little wary of carbon calculators, but the creators of this UK-focused one instead focus on the impacts of communities, reasoning that groups have more power to effect change. Impact aside, the tool is also a well-made means to explore a wide variety of climate-relevant information by area across the UK. I’ve quite enjoyed poking into the ins and outs of my local area as I’ve edited this week’s edition together!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Many news outlets this week reported the leaking of a draft of the next major IPCC report. Focusing on climate impacts, it is set to contain some of the IPCC’s strongest warnings yet. A number of their previous reports have been cautious in tone, but this latest publication pulls no punches, gathering a vast array of portentous findings, and unambiguously driving home the need for rapid action. In particular, the report focuses on various key environmental tipping points – major shifts in entire ecosystems or areas that, whilst uncertain, could have huge effects. The report itself is to be published in stages over the next year, meaning much of it will not be available before the crucial COP26 summit in November.
The World Food Program has warned that South Madagascar is facing a massive starvation event, as back-to-back droughts have brought over a million people into food insecurity, with 14,000 in catastrophic conditions. Importantly, the WFP have also emphatically linked the event to climate change, stressing how little the region has done to contribute to the problem whilst suffering some of the worst impacts.
Meanwhile, Taiwan has finally seen rains to ease its own long-running drought. In a full reversal, planning has now switched from managing ever decreasing water levels to preventing flooding as heavy rains envelop much of the island. Ministers are preparing for more of both extremes in future as Taiwan faces ever worsening climate impacts.
The western US is still facing massive heat, with California seeing a fresh wave of extreme heat this past weekend. The temperature is the immediate threat to many, hovering 20-30°F above normal, but an additional threat is that of blackouts as the grid struggles to cope with demand for cooling. Texas is similarly bracing for rolling outages, as the same problems that spelled disaster in the cold snap this spring have yet to be tackled.
UNESCO has recommended that the Great Barrier Reef be listed as ‘in danger’, due to the increasing threat of climate change. The reef has suffered three major coral bleaching events since 2015, but Australia claims the recommendation is a political move by China, the current UNESCO chair. Australia has previously lobbied successfully to keep the reef off the danger list, but it remains to be seen if it will prevail this time.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Moving Markets
A draft of planned EU changes to their ETS has leaked this week. The changes are to be unveiled on July 14th, and will see the shipping and aviation sectors brought under the scheme in the next couple of years, as well as a revision of how emissions permits are handled that has been described as the biggest overhaul since the ETS launched. The changes will increase the rate at which the overall emissions cap falls to support the new lower EU 2030 emissions target, as well as an overhaul of how free allowances of permits are allocated. There are also talks of a parallel emissions trading market for heating and road transport being introduced.
China’s ETS is also finally launching, immediately becoming the largest in the world. It has been in the works since 2010, but has at long last arrived after numerous revisions and modifications. The initial scheme only covers the power sector, but even that adds up to 12% of global emissions. It’s hard to say what the impact of it will be, as the initial version seems limited and rather lax, but it seems likely that after an initial adoption period, rules will be adjusted and tightened to help direct emissions downwards.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Climate Concern
President Biden came to power in February on a platform focused heavily on tackling the climate crisis, promising bold action. Since then, there have been many big announcements, new emissions targets, but backers are starting to express concern that the new administration has more bark than bite. This was compounded this week by the first official proclamation on the contentious Line 3 pipeline. The administration advised the courts to throw out legal challenges brought by tribal and environmental groups against the project, to the dismay of many.
There has also been concern over a pair of major bills that the administration is trying to push through. The process of getting the bills moved forwards has been a political dance of compromises and persuasion, and after finally getting some bipartisan support for the first bill, senior Democrats are threatening to revolt if more climate policies are compromised. It highlights the delicate state of US politics, where it is becoming increasingly hard to pass major pieces of legislation. Whilst climate action has been promised, can it actually be delivered in the current environment?
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
So much of the causes and solutions to the climate crisis are tied up with politics, a process that can often seem complex and intractable. Ezra Klein this week chatted with four environmental thinkers on the role politics can play in tackling climate change, and what barriers prevent us from acting more decisively on a political level to address the environmental challenges we face.
Shipping sits alongside aviation as a global sector underpinning the world’s economy, but faces similarly massive challenges when it comes to decarbonisation. One idea that many are considering seems like a throwback to the past – using wind power to reduce or eliminate the emissions from large cargo ships. There are a surprising variety of potential designs, although with huge capital costs and long timelines, few have made it beyond the drawing board as yet.
The rise of renewables and batteries has placed a renewed emphasis on supply of metals such as lithium. This has led to a revival of past ideas to mine the seabed – a rich and as yet untapped source of mineral wealth. However, the deep sea is a poorly understood environment, and the implications of mining it are even less certain. That’s not stopping startups from jumping in and hailing themselves as the saviours of the green transition whilst preparing to wreak havoc on the seafloor.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
Building and running large-scale renewables is now cheaper than running existing fossil-fuel power plants in nearly half the globe.
India’s largest power company has doubled its renewable ambitions to 66GW of capacity by 2032.
Honda will go all-electric by 2040, the first Japanese manufacturer to make such a commitment.
The Brazilian Environment Minister Ricardo Salles has resigned, and is facing criminal investigation over obstruction of a probe into illegal Amazon logging.
Japan has restarted its first nuclear reactor since 2018 after massive hurdles including local opposition, reams of new safety requirements and court battles.