FtF News #111 – 21st July 2021
Wild weather, grand new EU climate policy plans, and the UK makes more transport targets
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
It’s been sweltering this week as I’ve put this edition together – it seems climate change impacts are once again paying a visit to my usually sheltered part of the world. It’s only reached around 30°C, but even in a modern building like mine, there’s little accommodation for heat – A/C certainly isn’t standard as it is in many other countries. Hopefully this heatwave is short-lived, but it likely won’t be the last this year. I certainly hope more heat-friendly building designs become common here!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
This week is another that has been dominated by the weather for many, particularly in Europe. Unprecedented rain caused widespread flooding across Western Europe, including Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria. Over 120 people have been killed and many more are still missing in some of the worst floods in living memory. Flooding also struck London, just days before the UK was plunged into a heatwave, prompting the Met Office to issue its first ever extreme heat warning, with temperatures expected to top 33°C.
Floods have also impacted many other places across the world, with ‘unprecedented’ rains in Mumbai causing a landslide that killed at least 30, as monsoon rains become steadily more unpredictable. There have been flash floods in Oman and Lagos, and torrential rainfall in China has overwhelmed cities across Henan province. A study has found that China’s most important cities could face both higher temperatures and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century, with parts of Beijing potentially up to 2.6°C warmer by 2100.
The Western USA is still battling fires amidst the continuing drought conditions, with 80 large wildfires burning across 13 states. The Bootleg Fire in Oregon has now burned 340,000 acres, and is so extreme that firefighters in many cases are simply unable to contain the blaze. US wildfires have already burned three times more land than the same period last year, which was a record year. Over in Russia, fires in Siberia have been burning for months in the worst ever wildfire season, with over 3.7 million acres of land burned so far.
A wide-reaching study has confirmed that the Amazon is now emitting more CO2 than it is able to absorb, emitting around a billion tonnes of CO2 per year. Most of the emissions are from fires, but hotter temperatures and droughts are turning the south-eastern Amazon into a carbon source rather than a sink. The study is a first of its kind, using regular flights across the Amazon to sample CO2 levels up to 4,500m altitude for nine years to accurately assess emissions.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Progressive Policy
This week saw a massive climate policy package unveiled by the EU. Entertainingly called ‘Fit for 55’, it sets out a wide range of initiatives to back up the EU’s emissions target of a 55% reduction by 2030. It includes a carbon tariff on imports to the bloc, along with a hefty revision to the EU ETS, with more sectors coming under the scheme, and a faster drop in the number of credits available each year. It also pushes for significantly more renewable energy, and aims to eliminate fossil fuel car sales by 2035. In addition, it includes a €72bn social fund to help support the transition away from fossil fuels, and a focus on reducing emissions from buildings.
Overall, the policy package looks extremely hopeful, with ambitious and wide-reaching policies that could make a real difference if implemented. However, some have said that it doesn’t go far enough given the EU’s historic contribution to the climate crisis and relative wealth. There’s also the matter of getting the policies passed – the package could take up to two years to be approved, and there is likely to be strong pushback from member states on many of the measures. A key part of the package is ensuring an equitable transition – many of the measures could inflict outsize costs on poorer states and communities, and if handled incorrectly, there could be a wide scale repeat of the yellow vest movement that arose in France in response to increased fuel tariffs.
This week also saw the UK unveil more detailed transport policies, with a number of key headline targets. The biggest is a phased elimination of fossil-fuel powered HGV sales, with all new trucks under 26 tonnes needing to be carbon free by 2035, with heavier vehicles following suit in 2040. However, once again, the plans lack a lot of key details on supporting policies to assist in achieving the various transport goals, from changing flying behaviour to reducing road building or improving public transport.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Paper victories
The last couple of years has seen a real sea-change in how companies and countries talk about the climate, with pledges and plans being published and updated on a near weekly basis. However, many of them have felt more symbolic than meaningful, and so far the evidence is strongly leaning that way. An analysis of companies in the S&P 100 found that whilst nearly all have a plan to reduce emissions, only 40% have actively lobbied for climate policy, and many have done the opposite, either directly or through membership of trade bodies fighting climate positive legislation.
Another study released this week looked at the financial impact on companies responsible for major controversies and disasters. Whilst investors had a small but noticeable response to companies being implicated in disasters, credit ratings agencies paid no heed, pointing to a continuing need for better links between environmental and social impacts and financial impacts. Regulation and structure will likely come with time, but it is unclear whether such measures will be closing the door after the horse has bolted.
At the global level, analysis of the $17tn in COVID relief has found that only 10% went to cutting emissions and restoring nature. A majority went to emergency measures, but of $4.8tn with a clear environmental impact, only $1.8tn supported measures with a climate positive impact.
Similarly, many are now reassessing their opinions of the Biden administration as it passes six months in office. Despite strong climate rhetoric on the campaign trail, results have been lukewarm thus far. For example, despite a suspension of new oil and gas drilling on public lands, approval of drilling bids is on track to reach the highest levels since the Bush administration. US politics is undoubtedly a complex environment, but there’s a palpable feeling that the Biden administration isn’t pulling its weight.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Chicago’s complex relationship with water is something I’d only stumbled across in late night Wikipedia deep dives, but this week the New York Times explored how the city came to be, and its evolving relationship with the swamp on which it was built, Lake Michigan, and the Mississippi River Basin. It exists in a delicate balancing act, but with a rapidly changing climate, those previously stable relationships are eroding, causing chaos. Whilst Chicago’s situation is unique, many cities around the world are facing similar issues as climate change threatens to overwhelm situations barely held in check.
The discussion around climate-centric policy in the US (and elsewhere) often focuses on support for or opposition to the Green New Deal. However, as the Atlantic points out, the Green New Deal is not a concrete concept, but rather a grab bag of different ideas, and means very different things depending upon who you ask. This nebulous nature not only makes it hard to argue for or against, but in many ways also reflects the complexity of tackling climate change – there are many approaches, and they often differ fundamentally in their core philosophy. And of course, there’s no right answer.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
Chinese authorities have reclassified the giant panda as vulnerable rather than endangered, after programs have brought their numbers up to 1,800 in the wild.
A long term cycle in the moon’s orbit could combine with climate-change induced sea level rise to produce record floods in the 2030s, according to NASA.