FtF News #115 – 18th August 2021
Second hand EVs in Russia, heatwaves and wildfires continue, and the dangers of climate delay
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
The climate news sphere is still dominated by the IPCC report release this week, which I guess is a good thing – it does seem to have been a wake-up call for many. I’ll be honest, I still haven’t really dived into it, as it is mostly a summary of research that has been appearing for the past few years, though this Carbon Brief summary is good if you want to know what’s what. The real test will be whether the report inspires a meaningful boost in climate commitments and policy, most notably at COP26, which is rapidly drawing closer. I’m cautiously optimistic, but not holding my breath – meaningful change will take more than just this report I think.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Southern Europe continues to wither under scorching temperatures, with a new record of 48.8°C recorded in Sicily this week. Fires continue to rage across Greece, with over half of Evia, the country’s second largest island, now burned to the ground. Northern Africa is similarly toasty, with Tunis seeing 48.9°C, and Kairouan, in the south of Tunisia reaching 49°C. At least 65 people have been killed by wildfires in Algeria, including a number of soldiers drafted in to help control the blazes. Siberia continues to burn, with smoke from wildfires there now having reached the north pole (over 3,000km away) for the first time. Around 3.4m hectares are currently on fire, including many remote areas, and 14m hectares have burned so far this year.
Floods have returned to Turkey’s Black Sea coast, with dozens killed, and hundreds unaccounted for after torrential rain hit the area. Haiti is bracing for over 30cm of rain as a tropical depression passes over the island just two days after a devastating earthquake killed over 1,300 people. The rain is likely to bring flooding and landslides, further complicating rescue efforts.
July 2021 has now been confirmed as not only the hottest July ever, but Earth’s hottest month ever. 2021 as a whole is looking cooler than previous years, but is still likely to rank amongst the 10 warmest years on record. Part of the reason for those cooler temperatures is the La Niña effect, which may well return again next year, exacerbating drought conditions in the US west. The Colorado River system has implemented restrictions on water use in several states for the first time ever as reservoir levels dip ever lower, with no end in sight as yet.
Analysis from Greenpeace East Asia has found that high temperatures are becoming much more frequent across the region, with hot weather arriving earlier in the year for more than 80% of the cities studied. Heatwaves are also on the rise, with such events occurring nearly three times more frequently in Beijing between 2001 and 2020 versus the previous 40 year period.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Russia’s surprising EV boom
In a surprising turn of events, EVs are taking off in eastern Russia, thanks to an unusual set of circumstances that make electric far cheaper than combustion cars. More than a fifth of all EVs sold in Russia are sold in the far east of the country, despite the area being home to just 4% of the population. The region is not particularly wealthy or environmentally conscious, but rather has higher than average fuel prices, cheap electricity and a ready supply of second-hand EVs from Japan. A single EV can save 10,000 roubles a month in fuel costs, making them a popular choice.
This is encouraging news for elsewhere – fuel prices are rising in many parts of the world, and as battery costs (and thus EV prices) decline, more and more will start to choose EVs not just as an eco-friendly option, but because they make more economic sense than ICE vehicles. That’s likely a few years out, but it bodes well for the future.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Climate delay is the new denial
A concerning backlash is brewing in the UK against climate action, fueled by many of the same figures who stoked divisions over Brexit. A number of politicians and others on the right are exploiting the lack of clear climate policy by the government to play up concerns about the cost of climate action, particularly in areas like heating and utility bills. Climate denial is no longer the order of the day, but they are seeking to present climate change as a division between out-of-touch elites and working people, much as was done around Brexit, only here massively downplaying the impacts and costs of not taking action.
This is not just a shift occurring in the UK, however. Climate delay is the new climate denial, and it is just as dangerous, pushing the narrative that either climate impacts are over-hyped, or that climate change is just too big, and nothing can be done. The classic ‘Four Stage Strategy’ can be seen playing out yet again, with the end goal of continuing business as usual.
That’s not to downplay the very real difficulties of implementing climate policy – many environmental policies can end up hurting those already vulnerable in the current system, and populist backlash to well-intentioned but harmful climate policy has been seen in France, Australia and even previously in the UK.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Major oil companies are realising that they need to adapt to a climate-conscious world, but many still primarily make their money from selling fossil fuels. Some have come up with a novel solution – ‘carbon neutral’ fuels, where fossil fuels are offset using carbon credits. However, the offsets chosen are usually the cheapest possible, often less than $6 per tonne of carbon, and whilst the projects supported are worthwhile, the emissions benefits are minimal. The problems faced here are reminiscent of the complex issues faced by offsets more widely – the projects supported are meaningful, but the credits are often used by polluters to avoid real change.
China has a complex relationship with hydropower. I must admit I was mostly aware just of the massive megaprojects such as the Three Gorges Dam, but the country has tens of thousands of hydropower projects, a legacy of decades of trying to control its rivers. The Yangtze alone has 24,000 hydropower stations along its various tributaries. However, this massive infrastructure boom has come at a heavy environmental cost, and now the country is attempting to rectify the situation by shutting down up to 40,000 plants. This is no simple matter though – whilst removing turbines is relatively simple, tearing down dams is slow and expensive, but leaving the crumbling structures in place is a recipe for disaster.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
Brazil is passing a law to legalise squatting on public lands that could supercharge Amazonian deforestation.
The White House is calling for OPEC+ to increase oil production, in an apparent contradiction of its climate ambitions.
An oil spill in the Black Sea has spread over nearly 80sq km, despite being initially reported as a mere 12 cubic meters of oil.