FtF News #117 – 1st September 2021
Cleaner shipping, CO2 pipelines and a look back at Captain Planet
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Somehow, we’re in September already – perhaps I’m getting old, but it seems like 2021 has flown past (and yet simultaneously seems to have lasted forever!). Maybe it’s the seemingly unending nature of the past two years, where we’ve stumbled from one overwhelming situation to the next. Alas, it doesn’t seem likely to slow down any time soon, so I guess it’s up to us to carve out the time we need to breathe and take stock when we need.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Another week brings its increasingly usual panoply of extreme weather. Much of the coverage has been of the US, for better or worse, as it struggled between fire on one coast and a hurricane on another. Wildfires continue to burn across the western US, with the Dixie Fire continuing to grow, and the Caldor Fire now threatening the popular resort town of South Lake Tahoe. The Dixie Fire only a week or two ago became the first fire in California history to cross the Sierra Nevada mountains, but this week saw the Caldor Fire perform the same feat, suggesting that this may be a new normal for California wildfires.
Meanwhile, Louisiana has been dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, which struck New Orleans 16 years to the day after Katrina, one of the worst natural disasters in recent US history. Fortunately, the storm produced a smaller storm surge than Katrina, and beefed-up flood defences seem to have proved adequate to prevent the catastrophic flooding seen in 2005. However, Ida saw incredibly powerful winds of up to 150mph, which have wreaked havoc on New Orleans’ power grid, with over a million homes without power, possibly for weeks to come. Ida was notable not only for its strength, but how rapidly it intensified, becoming a Category 4 storm barely an hour after reaching Category 3 status.
In the latest addition to the research base on air pollution, a study involving 13,000 people in London has found a link to increased severity of mental illness. A small increase in nitrogen dioxide exposure led to a 32% increase in needing community-based treatment, and an 18% increase in the risk of being admitted to hospital.
To wrap up on a more positive note, a study has modelled the impact of the Montreal Protocol on the globe. The agreement was responsible for a global ban on CFCs, and without it, the world would likely have seen skyrocketing temperatures, potentially with an additional 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century, and 40-50% more CO2 in the atmosphere. Whilst things often seem bleak, it shows that global agreement can occur, and whilst a CFC ban seems minor, the impacts have been enormous.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Sense prevails
The Biden administration came under fire soon after coming into power for reaffirming approval for the vast Willow oil drilling project in Alaska. The project was approved under Trump, but the Biden administration’s reaffirmation, whilst possibly politically sensible, was seen as a betrayal of their environmental platform by many. Fortunately for those opposed to the project, a federal judge in Alaska has blocked construction permits, specifically citing environmental concerns.
They noted that the Bureau of Land Management excluded greenhouse gas emissions from their analysis of environmental impacts – an omission they deemed ‘arbitrary and capricious’. The project, if it goes ahead, would produce 100,000 barrels of oil per day for the next 30 years. No doubt there will be some form of appeal in the works, but this will certainly delay the project somewhat.
Money on methanol
Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, has just put in an order for 8 new ships, with an option for 4 more. However, what is notable is that the ships will be capable of running both on traditional bunker fuel and on methanol – a capacity for which Maersk is paying a 10-15% premium. The firm has previously committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, and with a $1.4bn ship order, it seems that they’re following through on that commitment. Currently, carbon neutral methanol is twice the price of bunker fuel, but Maersk are hoping that their order will spur a wider shift in the industry, bringing prices down.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Business as usual
A recent assessment of global power sector emissions has found that they have now climbed back above pre-pandemic levels, now sitting 5% above the same period in 2019. Much of this is due to increased electricity demand, also up by 5%. Wind and solar are taking up an increasing amount of new electricity demand, but were only able to absorb just over half of the new capacity, with the rest being met by coal power. Global power demand is only going to increase, with rising populations, increased demand from developing nations, and a worldwide push towards electrification across many sectors.
It’s definitely encouraging to see renewables meeting an ever larger share of new power demand, but at the moment they’re not even keeping up with new demand, let alone shifting the needle on existing capacity. The accelerating trends in the growth of solar and wind give hope, but the scale of the change required is vast, and it remains to be seen if the power sector will shift fast enough.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
The Huffington Post covered the fascinating and grim story of a major leak in a CO2 pipeline last year, near the town of Sartartia in Mississippi. With huge amounts of CO2 pipeline infrastructure planned as the US and other countries scale up efforts to capture and sequester the gas, the incident highlights that CO2 pipelines present a poorly understood risk. The aftermath was a mess of misinformation and misunderstanding, with few grasping the true cause or the side-effects. CO2 is likely to become a major part of infrastructure worldwide, and there’s a real need to understand and assess the risks involved before scaling up.
I enjoyed this look back at Captain Planet, the 90s eco-centric cartoon that was well ahead of its time. It’s hard to say what the influence of such stories really was on the children (and adults) that watched it back in the day, but I feel like the role of story-telling and media is often downplayed in the climate sphere. Stories have a way of captivating and enthralling that is more important now than ever in an era where we all exist in our own personal bubbles of information and experience.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
England is to ban single-use plastic plates and cutlery, although no firm date has yet been announced.
The Dutch advertising watchdog has ordered Shell to pull an ad campaign telling consumers they can offset the emissions from purchasing fuel.
Concern in the UK over the climate crisis is at a 30 year high following the recent publication of the latest IPCC report.