FtF News #120 – 22nd September 2021
COP26 looms, coal’s rapid decline, and a dose of positive climate futurism
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
I’ve been a big fan of Grist’s climate reporting for some time, but this week, they announced the results of another initiative I really love. Their Imagine 2020 project was a prize for climate fiction imagining a better world 180 years in the future, with a focus on writers from a wide variety of backgrounds. The day to day of climate news can often be quite dark, so this promises to be a welcome uplift, a reminder of what the world could become. I’ve not yet had a chance to dive in, but I’m looking forward to doing so this weekend!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
The latest numbers in from the Copernicus Climate Change Service show that Europe has just had its warmest summer on record – something those in the Mediterranean will not be surprised about! The summer came in at nearly 1°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 0.1°C above the previous hottest years, 2010 and 2018.
A new study has found that tropical ‘cloud’ forests in Africa are more concentrated stores of carbon than the Amazon. Tropical forests in Africa are not well understood due to their remoteness as well as ongoing political tensions, but recent studies have found that both lowland as well as higher mountain tropical forests are key stores of carbon. However, they are also being felled at a high rate and are poorly protected – many lie in some of the least developed countries on the planet, and unless their preservation can be monetised, it’s hard to see a way to keep these key ecosystems intact.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Coal dwindles ever further
One of the key goals being chased by COP26 president Alok Sharma is an agreement to phase out coal power entirely. He’s met with limited success thus far, but as Carbon Brief reported this week, even without formal agreements, progress on eliminating coal is progressing rapidly. The pipeline of proposed coal projects has shrunk by over 75% since 2015, and 44 governments have committed to end construction of coal plants entirely, with almost the same number in a position to make such a pledge should they choose. Of the remaining coal projects, the majority lie in just six countries – China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey and Bangladesh – with virtually all scaling back their coal plans massively in the past five years.
Recycling reassurance
California is proposing to ban recycling symbols on all items that aren’t actually recyclable, in what could be a significant step up in recycling clarity. This sounds like something that should already be the case, but as my recent plastic recycling post discussed, the ubiquity of the ‘chasing arrows’ symbol combined with wildly inconsistent recycling standards means many products are recycled when they shouldn’t be, contaminating waste streams and reducing the material that can be reused. The bill would allow the symbol only on items which can be recycled in most California communities and used to make new products.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
COP26 – climate key or a damp squib?
Much has been made of COP26, due to be held in just over a month – various figures have pronounced it the last major chance to make significant global progress on climate change policy. However, as it draws closer, it’s looking less and less likely to proceed as hoped – even the normally over-optimistic Boris Johnson this week warned there was only a ‘six out of ten’ chance of getting countries to sign up to key targets ahead of the conference.
In many respects China has been seen as the linchpin, but thus far the country has played its cards close to its chest, and has been very cagey as to what degree it will participate at all. Chinese premier Xi Jinping has yet to confirm his attendance, and if he decides to pass, it’s likely to scupper chances for major agreements.
Another key topic is a pledge made by developed countries to pony up $100bn per year to help developing nations decarbonise and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The target was meant to be met by 2020, but has not been reached. In fact, progress has slowed, with funding reaching $79.6bn last year, just 2% more than that pledged in 2018. Oxfam has suggested the shortfall could add up to $75bn from 2020-25, and with ⅔ of the money coming as loans, the pledge could simply add to the already enormous debt burden these countries carry. Not pulling together the funds is widely seen as a breach of trust and it’s likely to make negotiations even more tense.
More effort needed
One of the reasons many see COP26 as so crucial is that thus far, the world collectively has not done nearly enough. A new UN report suggests that the likelihood that we will miss 1.5°C is growing, despite the economic slowdown from COVID-19. Climate Action Tracker released a similar report that showed the only nation globally on track to take Paris Agreement-compatible levels of climate action is the tiny country of The Gambia. Amongst developed nations, only the UK is even somewhat close.
However, amidst this doom and gloom, it is always worth bearing in mind that there is no ‘make-or-break’ date for the climate. Any action is good, and so even if COP26 fails to impress, there’s still plenty that can be done. Only this week, the EU and the US signed up to an agreement to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030. It’s not perfect, but it’s progress, and progress is good.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
I’ve touched on ESG more than a few times in this newsletter. The premise is good – wrap up environmental, social and governance goals alongside profit, allowing the engine of capitalism to push towards better as well as more profitable. However, Tariq Fancy, ex-CIO of Sustainable Investing at BlackRock, published a scouring 3-part disassembly of sustainable investing this week. He describes as ESG and similar measures as largely a marketing tool over business as usual. Moreover, the system in which companies operate is explicitly designed to reward profit over all else, so any other objective will, when push comes to shove, be left by the wayside. The solution? Stronger policy and regulation, though that’s definitely easier said than done.
‘Sustainable’ jet fuel has been touted as a potential solution to the environmental impact of aviation for some time, and token flights running partly on fuels made from used cooking oil have generated headlines as recently as this week. President Biden recently made an announcement that all US flights will be fuelled with sustainable aviation fuels by 2050, but as the NYT explores, sustainable fuel is often anything but, and the devil is in the details. The best fix right now for aviation is simply to fly less, but unfortunately that’s a little harder to sell.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
A global survey suggests nearly 60% of young people are very or extremely worried about climate change.
Harvard is to finally divest its $42bn endowment fund from fossil fuels, after a decade-long campaign by activists.
London is moving up its plans to electrify its bus fleet by 3 years to 2034.