FtF News #122 – 6th October 2021
EVs are here to stay, the dubious economics of lab-grown meat, and UK power pledges
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
The UK Conservative Party is having its annual conference this week, and as always, it’s seen its fair share of wildly ambitious declarations. Boris Johnson announced that all UK electricity will come from renewable sources by 2035, which is laudable, though possibly ambitious to the point of delusion. Some are suggesting either gas with CCS or more nuclear power as solutions, but neither is cheap nor quick. Still, the new Norway-UK power interconnect is up and running now, so that will help green the UK grid significantly.
On the flip side, they’ve also decided that climate protesters are too disruptive, and are pushing forward plans to issue 6 month prison sentences and unlimited fines for activists who block roads (like the ongoing Insulate Britain protests). It seems that you’re allowed to protest, but woe betide those who cause disruption!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
The seemingly ever-present fires in the Amazon are starting to fade, with the rainforest likely to record about half the fire points it did last year. Similarly the Pantanal wetland, which saw huge fires last year, has seen about a third as much this year. Unfortunately, now the Brazilian caatinga, a desert-like biome, is now on fire, with the most severe blazes since 2003. The biome is unique to Brazil and contains thousands of endemic species, found nowhere else.
A pipeline has burst off the coast of California, leaking at least 126,000 gallons of oil into the Pacific ocean. Worryingly, the exact source of the leak has yet to be identified, though the company responsible says that it has shut down the pipeline at fault, and says no more oil should leak. Nevertheless, this is one of the worst spills in the state for years.
A study of urban heat stress has found that half of all people vulnerable to life-threatening urban heat live in India. The researchers analysed over 13,000 cities worldwide, looking at wet bulb temperatures – when the measure rises above 30°C, humans can no longer cool themselves. 17 of the 50 most affected cities lie in India, highlighting just how vulnerable the country is to urban heat stress.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
EVs imminently everywhere
Global EV investment is booming, with car-makers likely to exceed $500bn in total funding for next-gen vehicles by 2030. Tesla leads the pack, but Ford and VW are not far behind, with the former announcing 4 new factories this week. The $11.4bn investment with SK Innovation is apparently the largest single investment in Ford’s history, and will result in 3 battery factories and a truck plant, paving the way for the company to produce over 1m EVs per year in the second half of the decade.
Norway has long been ahead on electric vehicle adoption, but the latest figures suggest it’s on track to reach 100% electric new car sales by April 2022, well ahead of its 2025 ban on ICE vehicles. Cars without any form of electrification were just 10% of new car sales, down from 21% last year. It’s likely that the last few percent will be slower, as a few key niches hold out, but with most of the country electrifying, the momentum has shifted firmly to electric as the default.
Buy now, benefit later
A new report by the European Central Bank has reaffirmed that addressing climate change will cost less than letting it run amok. They’ve just wrapped up their first economy-wide climate stress test, looking at three scenarios – keeping warming to 1.5°C, a messy and late decarbonisation to 2°C of warming, and finally a ‘no new policy’ approach. In the 1.5°C world, businesses will see less profit and higher risks of default for the next 4-5 years due to green policy, but much better long term outlooks. Meanwhile, for both the other two scenarios, firms will see significantly reduced profits and higher risks of defaulting.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Appearances are deceptive
The massive US climate bill(s) have split opinions of many in the country and beyond, and almost as soon as they appeared, lobbying groups sprang up to try and stop them passing. Analysis of the groups has found that they are backed by many of the world’s largest corporations, many of whom have professed their dedication to tackling climate change. Companies linked to the groups include Amazon, Apple, Disney, Microsoft and many, many more. It seems that for most corporations, climate action is only skin deep, and easily shed at the prospect of slightly reduced profits.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Grist are producing a few good deep dives on climate tech, and this week’s article on decarbonising cement, steel and ammonia was no exception. All are complex and massive industries, together producing a fifth of all global emissions. Reducing or eliminating emissions from these sectors will be tricky, but there are solutions out there, including the oft-vaunted green hydrogen and CCS.
Vice produced a timely reminder of the intersectional nature of the climate crisis this week. It can be easy for those of us a bit further away from the front lines to forget that climate change has been a daily reality for many for decades. They interviewed a selection of activists who highlighted the crossovers with racism, lgbtq+ rights, ableism and more. All of these problems are massive, complex and systemic, but tackling them together will enable us to create a better, more equitable world.
Cultured meat, like nuclear fusion, has been hovering on the sidelines for some time, always ‘a few years away’. A new deep dive suggests that however much funding the technology gets, it may never scale, due to fundamental constraints on the techniques being used. In my view, the more choices there are to replace animal meat, the better, but with limited funding available, there’s a danger lab-grown meat sucks the wind out of the sails of other, more proven approaches like plant-based proteins.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
The European natural gas shortage has pushed up both European and UK carbon credit prices to record levels.
Austria is to implement a CO2 tax of €30/tonne, in addition to the costs imposed by the EU ETS.
Zimbabwe has increased its GHG emissions reduction target to 40% by 2030, up from 33%.
The EPA has removed gas-powered heaters and clothes dryers from its top Energy Star rating following pressure from environmental groups.