FtF News #125 – 27th October 2021
The UK has a net-zero plan, behind-the-scenes comments at the UN, and some unlikely climate commitments
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
After a seemingly endless build-up, COP26 is nearly upon us, with all the hopes and promises that that entails. Personally, I’m not holding my breath for anything spectacular to be unveiled at the conference itself (though I wouldn’t complain!), but I think the real work happens now, in the flood of commitments and reports piling in ahead of the event. It seems like even world leaders aren’t immune to the pressure of a good solid deadline!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Flooding and landslides in India and Nepal have continued into this week, with the death-toll rising to 150 people. Uttarakhand province has suffered the heaviest rain it has seen in over 100 years, with significant rainfall this late in the year extremely unusual.
California has recorded its driest year in a century, with experts fearing that next year could be even worse. In the 2021 water year, a total of 11.87 inches of snow and rain fell in the state, barely half the average of 23.58 inches.
A study of the impacts of diesel trucks in the US has found that they largely fall on low-income and non-white communities. Such communities are exposed to 28% more nitrogen dioxide than wealthier white areas, largely due to routing – both warehouses and freeways are often cited in poorer areas, with freeways in particular having been deliberately placed through and around non-white communities. Sadly, this looks like yet another example of systematic environmental inequality. Speaking of…
A spate of UN reports have emerged this week, but one in particular has highlighted the disproportionate climate impacts faced by people in Africa. Over 100m people are threatened by climate change on the continent, despite African countries being responsible for just 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. In sub-Saharan Africa, climate change could lower GDP by up to 3% by 2050, further impoverishing the region.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
A plan emerges
The UK has unveiled its net-zero plan, just days before COP26. Whilst the UK was one of the first countries to commit to net-zero, it has come under repeated criticism for lacking a concrete plan, especially whilst hosting the upcoming climate conference. That has now changed, with a comprehensive plan being released at last. Experts are still weighing up the plan (the plan was released along with around 20 other documents totalling over 1,800 pages!), but most reactions have been positive. As James Murray from BusinessGreen put it:
“[O]ne of the world’s pre-eminent industrialised economies – the crucible of the first industrial revolution – [now] has a detailed plan to fully decarbonise within 30 years. It is a flawed and incomplete plan, but it is a plan. On the eve of COP26 it does provide a workable template for the rest of the world to learn from.”
There are definitely still gaps and flaws in the strategy (see Carbon Brief’s usual thorough breakdown here), but as with many other elements of the crisis, having a flawed plan is better than no plan at all, and could help in negotiations with those nations still reluctant to take decisive action.
Conference catalysis
The COP26 effect is in full swing this week, with two more net-zero goals emerging from unlikely sources – Saudi Arabia and Australia. Both are definitely in the ‘paper target’ corner, but setting a goal is a (small) first step that would have seemed unthinkable for both countries not long ago. China has also released some guidelines clarifying its intentions for 2060, when it plans to have at least 80% of its energy consumption from non-fossil sources.
There have also been minor negotiating wins, including some progress on talks around Article 6 – the section of the Paris Agreement still not locked down, that would lay the groundwork for a global carbon market. It has remained stubbornly out of reach since 2016, but key nations including Brazil have indicated they may be willing to concede on key points. An agreement to phase out coal power is likely to be off the table sadly, and the US is already playing down expectations for its own commitments (see Adverse Circumstances for more).
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Behind closed doors
Anyone who’s read one of the major UN reports has probably noted the very precise language they are couched in. This is because each and every sentence is subject to an intense scrutiny and negotiation involving UN member nations, corporations and other key bodies before it is signed off. A major leak of 32,000 of these comments this week has revealed how a number of countries have been lobbying to water down key climate findings.
Whilst the majority of the notes were constructive, several nations, including Saudi Arabia, Australia and Japan wanted to remove or downplay text urging a rapid move away from fossil fuels. Wealthy nations also questioned paying developing nations to help them transition to green technologies, and several key bodies, including OPEC, wanted the removal of mentions of lobbying against climate action. The full analysis from Greenpeace has more, but it’s a damning statement of what goes on behind the scenes of international climate politics.
Don’t hold your breath...
The saga of the major US climate bills continues. After continued opposition from Joe Manchin, the bill is being reworked to remove the Clean Energy Performance Program, a $150bn program of subsidies and penalties designed to clean up the nation’s grid. Whilst not yet a fatal blow for the whole bill, the program has been seen as a key part of rapidly reducing US emissions. Joe Manchin’s own state of West Virginia was recently found to be more exposed than any other to worsening floods as the climate crisis continues to escalate.
With other Democratic senators threatening to veto the bill if the CEPP is removed, this could stall or kill the bill entirely. As a result, the US is becoming very much more bark than bite as COP26 looms. A net-zero pledge and grand goals of cutting emissions are all well and good, but given the country’s chequered past with climate action, especially on the international stage, the rest of the world is increasingly regarding such talk with caution.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
China often comes under the spotlight due to its huge emissions footprint, but Chinese firms less so. As Bloomberg covered this week, the sheer scale of Chinese industry means the nation is home to many companies whose emissions are larger than entire countries. Details still remain sparse both on many major companies in the country, as well as the route China may take to reach carbon neutrality, but it’s looking like the shifts there will be unlike anything seen elsewhere in the world.
Methane has flown under the climate radar for a long time, but with several firms launching satellite monitoring service in recent years, more and more is being understood about where the problematic gas comes from. One major source that has emerged is the ageing oil and gas infrastructure of Turkmenistan, which is sitting on one of the world’s largest gas reserves. However, the country is a secretive dictatorship, and is so closed off from the outside world that enacting change is near impossible. A fascinating look at a poorly understood nation and the unique challenges that that brings to reducing global methane emissions.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
California has just signed off on a law banning petrol powered mowers and leaf blowers, signalling the end for the incredibly polluting devices in the state.
The OED has made a climate-related revision ahead of COP26, incorporating terms such as ‘eco-anxiety’ and ‘climate crisis’ to reflect the growing climate lexicon.
The Global Cement and Concrete Association has produced a roadmap to net-zero concrete by 2050, a major step for such a key polluting industry.