FtF News #126 – 3rd November 2021
Climate success or cop-out? Either way, it’s all about COP26 this week
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Almost everything in the climate news sphere (and beyond) this week is linked to COP26 in one way or another. It’s definitely good to pull the spotlight onto the climate crisis, but given the likely trajectory of the conference, it does seem like a lot of hot air. The general sentiment seems to be that not much of note is likely to be agreed, but you never know. Equity is a big concern in the run-up, with many of the nations most vulnerable to climate change struggling to reach the summit. Quarantine restrictions, lack of vaccines and more have made it very hard for many delegates and politicians from such countries to make the trip, likely ensuring that their crucial voices, often ignored already, will be even less heard than usual.
A side note: Bloomberg Green have taken down the paywall on their articles during COP26, so if you usually find you can’t access Bloomberg articles I link to, you should be good until November 12th!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
In an appropriate start to COP26, the UN WMO has said that 2021 will likely fall in the top seven warmest years ever, all of which have occurred since 2014. The year has seen new records for atmospheric CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. The NOAA also put out its winter forecast this week, and is predicting that the La Niña weather pattern will emerge for a second year in a row. This is not unprecedented, but for the US in particular it will likely mean a continuation of the severe drought seen throughout the south west, although the Pacific Northwest will likely see cooler temperatures and more rain.
One of the most thorough studies yet has confirmed that the colonisation of North America resulted in near total loss of lands for Indigenous peoples. In the continental US in particular, tribes lost close to 99% of their combined historical land bases, and what land they have left has a high level of exposure to climate change risks and hazards. The general patterns and impacts of colonisation were understood before this work, but it is more systematic and rigorous than any before it, and hopes to open up the data for further study.
On a more positive note, a new study concludes that the Chinese high-speed rail network has reduced both the number of passenger and freight vehicles on highways parallel to the new rail lines. This has reduced total Chinese transport emissions by 1.75%, a small but notable amount. The study’s authors note that the impact was limited by high grid emissions, but as that becomes greener, the CO2 reduction from HSR will likely increase.
Good COP
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
A little more action please
COP26 is still producing a few pleasant surprises politically, with Israel this week announcing its own 2050 net zero emissions target ahead of the conference, and Nepal and Thailand brought their net zero targets up to 2045 and 2050 respectively. Meanwhile, the global methane pledge started by the EU and US, to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030, has now signed up 80 countries, although it is missing key emitters such as China, Russia and Brazil. Unfortunately, US and EU efforts to persuade Australia to sign were in vain.
The first days of the conference have also seen India, the world’s 3rd largest emitter, commit to a 2070 net-zero target. India is one of the last major emitters not to have made such a pledge, though rumours suggested they were evaluating such a target. Whilst the date seems late compared to other targets, experts say it is still sufficient to avoid catastrophic warming.
Many countries have also pledged to end deforestation globally, in what could be one of the most significant outcomes of the conference. It’s hard to tell exactly how impactful the pledge will be, as concrete details are sparse, and similar efforts in the past have fallen flat, but this time the signatories include key forested nations such as Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Papua New Guinea, alongside major economies such as the EU, China and the US.
Accountability for Big Oil?
This week saw the appearance of a number of key fossil fuel executives before a US House committee. The hearing has been compared to a similar hearing of tobacco industry executives, although so far, has been less incriminating. The executives dodged all the key questions, whilst Republicans heaped praise upon them. However, the hearing was followed with a subpoena for key documents, which the oil companies have repeatedly avoided handing over. In an apt move for a hearing investigating fossil fuel-funded climate misinformation, the firms also ramped up advertising in key Washington publications to try and win goodwill from political figures ahead of the hearing.
Bad COP
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Alongside the more positive news and announcements leading up to COP26, there’s also sadly been the usual array of underwhelming announcements and missed targets. The G-20 meeting in Rome, which was hoped would lead to dates to phase out coal power and reach net-zero, ended with no real agreement – the final statement issued made no firm commitments of any kind.
China has formally declared its new NDC, but has not deigned to come forward with any major new targets or commitments. It will peak CO2 emissions before 2030, and aims to generate 25% of its energy consumption by that date from renewable sources, up from a 20% commitment previously. Unsurprisingly, Xi Jinping has decided not to attend the conference.
The US has also been rather a damp squib – President Biden was hoping to come to COP26 and announce the biggest US climate measures ever, but the climate bill remains firmly stuck in limbo. A huge raft of measures have now been dropped as a compromise to voting holdouts, including the clean energy plan mentioned last week, free community college, paid family leave, and higher tax rates for corporations. It leaves Biden back to the usual US climate position of trying to persuade others to act, whilst bringing no serious domestic action of his own to the table.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
As I mentioned at the start, a key topic leading into COP26 has been inequity, and trust between developed and developing nations. In particular, focus has been on a $100bn/year pledge to help less wealthy countries adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change. Carbon Brief have dived into the murky world of climate finance to explore how and where the finance flows have fallen short, how the money breaks down, and other complexities involved behind the headline figures.
The transition to a cleaner economy is going to involve change on a near unparalleled scale. Bloomberg took a look at the impacts on the US car industry, which is starting to wake up to the coming EV boom. The move to electric vehicles will mean changes not only in manufacturing, but parts, servicing and much more, and the changes coming will affect a large proportion of the nearly 5m people who work in the car industry in the US right now. Whilst many talk of retraining or new jobs emerging, the reality is rarely so simple, and the transition is going to change a lot of people’s lives in a big way.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
The UK Chancellor has elected to halve taxes on domestic flights in his latest budget, just days before COP26 is due to begin.
Hertz has ordered 100,000 Tesla Model 3s in what has been called the biggest single EV purchase ever, propelling Tesla to a valuation over $1tn.
Over 1,100 McKinsey employees have signed a letter calling on the company to drop its most polluting clients, which include 43 of the top 100 most environmentally damaging companies.
Dutch pension fund ABP, one of the world’s largest, is to divest from its fossil fuel investments.