FtF News #131 – 8th December 2021
Overshoot scenarios, Albatross divorce and a look at the most polluted city on Earth
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
I know I say this a lot, but it really feels like the climate movement has gained a massive momentum in the past couple of years, and really become part of the mainstream conversation in a way it never has before. One facet of this is climate books – the sheer number of climate-related books published recently is impressive – this list from Eric Roston provides good reading list fodder if you’re in need of something environmental!
This week’s newsletter is a long one, with a lot of stories to cover, and even more left on the cutting-room floor. That’s in part due to the fact I now have some assistance with the newsletter, which is greatly appreciated, and means I can cover more news than I could alone!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Copernicus Climate Change Service has published a summary of wildfire impacts in 2021, and it’s dire reading – this year resulted in the highest estimated emissions ever. In fact, 2021’s wildfires emitted an estimated 6450 mt of CO2, nearly 2.5x the emissions of the entire EU in 2020! Amongst the most severe were fires in Siberia, where wildfire emissions more than doubled as huge swathes of the region burned for months.
Increasingly, modern climate scenarios are including the possibility of a temperature ‘overshoot’ when reaching a given level of warming, where temperatures are allowed to rise past the desired level, decreasing back over time. Two recent studies have examined the impact of such overshoot scenarios, and find that they are distinctly more damaging than keeping temperatures below the desired margin outright. One noted that an overshoot increases the risk of heatwaves and extreme weather impacts, whilst the other suggests that whilst the faster emissions decrease of a non-overshoot scenario is more economically taxing in the short term, it is outweighed by longer-term economic benefits.
In a more unusual climate impact, scientists have discovered that Albatrosses are ‘divorcing’ at increased rates, likely because of climate change. The birds normally mate for life, but may split if they fail to raise a chick. It appears that warmer ocean temperatures may behind the rising numbers of pairs splitting, as they make it both harder to find food as well as to successfully fledge a chick.
Climate Visuals
A picture tells a thousand words…
Greenpeace are known worldwide for their environmental activism, and a big part of that is photographing and documenting their activities, which they’ve now done for 50 years. The Greenpeace media archive is well worth a browse for some really striking images.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Greek climate ambition
Greece is to introduce a major climate bill, prompted by the devastating wildfires the country experienced over the summer. The law promises bold action for a country not normally known for strong climate policy, including stopping production of lignite coal within six years, and aiming for a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. The Greeks also propose a total ban on new ICE car sales by 2030, five years ahead of the EU as a whole.
Whilst this new-found climate ambition is certainly welcome, the targets are ambitious, especially on the vehicle front – Greece has just 0.1% of the EU’s charging points, and a very limited number of EVs are on the roads at present. As always with such laws, there’s much to like, but much equally comes down to implementation – time will tell.
Cambo come, Cambo go
Activists are celebrating after Shell pulled out of the controversial Cambo Field oil project in the UK. The project, whilst small on a global scale, clashes significantly with the UK’s avowed climate ambition, and has been criticised by senior figures including Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Shell said it is quitting the development as it no longer appears financially viable, leaving the project close to dead in the water.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
All bark, no bite
Over the past year or so, an increasing number of investors and retailers have threatened to pull funding or operations from Brazil if the country didn’t tackle its growing deforestation problem. However, since then, Brazilian deforestation has only increased, and the vast majority of those entities have not followed through on their threats. This unfortunately emboldens Bolsonaro and those like him to call the bluff of any who make similar demands in the future, which is the opposite of the intended effect.
One of the issues exacerbated by deforestation in Brazil, particularly in the north-east of the country, is desertification. Growing swathes of the region are turning to a barren wasteland, where high temperatures and drought combine with deforestation and over-farming to leave the soil parched and devoid of nutrients. Farmers in the north-east are growing increasingly desperate following years of drought, exacerbated by a growing clay tile industry which further strips both water and vital nutrition from the area.
A tree is for life, not just for Christmas
Tree planting is once again under the spotlight after an Instagram stunt went awry. A group promised to plant a tree for every pet picture posted on the platform, but after the pledge went viral, the group suddenly faced the task of planting some 4 million trees. In the process, more attention has been drawn to the often symbolic nature of tree planting, which is lauded by many as a climate solution, but often acts as a greenwash solution that hides the complexity and cost inherent in afforestation.
In a similar vein, this week Carbon Brief dived into ‘nature-based solutions’ (of which tree planting is one), examining both the history of the term as well as what’s covered and the complexities of the topic. Nature-based solutions were originally seen as a means of climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation, but in recent years have seen adoption for mitigation of emissions as well, with the rise of the ‘net-zero’ target. However, as with tree planting alone, this risks reducing all nature-based projects to their carbon value, rather than valuing biodiversity, nature and the environment inherently, and has in the past led to greenwashing and actively damaging practices, both to environment and to vulnerable communities.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Climate impacts come in many forms, as can be seen at the Smithsonian museum in Washington D.C., the largest museum complex in the world. A number of the institution’s buildings are under threat both from rising sea levels as well as more frequent heavy rains. Long term fixes are pricey, and finding the money is far from easy, meaning museum staff are having to bodge fixes to protect the priceless collections. This is a pattern playing out across the world – whilst the Smithsonian name will likely ensure that ultimately it is able to fund a solution, many other treasures will not be so lucky.
Norilsk is not a name too many will have heard of, but those that have will likely know it for one thing: pollution. It is one of the most polluted cities on earth thanks to decades of metals mining and refining, and the city alone produces more sulphur dioxide annually than the entire of the US. Ironically, its position in the far north of Russia means it is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, but it is in the sway of one company, Norilsk Nickel, that has been responsible not only for all the pollution, but also provides virtually all of the jobs and income for the community.
Everyone loves David Attenborough, and so I had to feature this excellent article on both the man himself and his latest nature series, looking at the world of plants. It provides both an great overview of his long and storied career, as well as the constant role of technology in his documentation of nature and the environment for the world.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
A new survey suggests that over half of workers in the oil and gas industry are looking to jump ship to the booming renewables sector.
China’s use of controversial ‘cloud-seeding’ techniques ahead of the Communist Party’s centenary in July lowered air pollution by ⅔, according to a new study.
The US EPA has passed a rule forcing natural gas power plants to collect and publish data on a number of pollutants, making this data public for the first time.