FtF News #138 – 2nd February 2022
Greek snow, changing coffee climes and the hidden emissions of gas stoves
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
As I put together this week’s edition, I’ve been mulling over an article by Amy Westervelt that I read this weekend (from the excellent Hot Take). Entitled ‘Dreaming in Paris’, it discusses the shift in climate discussions from 2016 to now. When the Paris Agreement was signed, the general feeling was that the goals were too weak, too unambitious. Now, 5+ years later, as the world wakes up to just how hard reaching 1.5°C is going to be (especially given several more years of inaction), some are suggesting pushing back the goalposts, lowering the ambition.
However, the piece argues very strongly that this is exactly what we cannot do, and I think it’s an excellent message to keep in mind when dealing with climate change. To quote:
“Are we on track to get to zero? Hell no. Can we get on track to get there? It's not looking great. Does that mean we shift the goalposts and aim lower? No! “When all else fails, lower your expectations,” is the worst possible mantra for the climate movement. Realism is fine, necessary even, but you don't stop fighting for what you know is right, or change your definition of “livable”, just because it looks like you're not going to get there.”
Once again, this week’s issue was ably assisted by Syuan Ruei Chang, who contributed a number of the articles and stories featured this week.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
It’s been a week of wild weather, with storms, flooding, snow and more. South Africa is reeling from record rainfall that has swamped many provinces including key farming districts. The rain comes on the back of years of extreme heat and drought for the country, once again highlighting the growing extremes in weather.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ana swept across Malawi and Mozambique, wreaking destruction and killing dozens. The storms have caused strong winds and heavy rain, damaging tens of thousands of homes, as well as knocking out Malawi’s principal hydroelectric power station. Even as the countries race to assess and deal with the damage, another storm is forming out in the Indian Ocean.
Southern Europe has been dealing with severe snowfall. Whilst snow is not unknown in Turkey and Greece, the storms left parts of Istanbul under more than 30 inches of snow, and left hundreds of drivers stranded near Athens. One coastal resort in Turkey saw its first snowfall in 29 years, and Montenegro saw a record low of -33.2°C. Forecasts suggest the cold snap is set to continue through this week.
Latin America has seen a pair of oil spills – one in the Ecuadorian Amazon and one on the Peruvian coast. The former is believed to be mostly contained, but occurred within the Cayambe Coca national park, and has affected an area of 21,000 square metres of biodiverse rainforest. The Peruvian spill involves the country’s largest oil refinery, operated by Spanish firm Repsol. The size of the incident was revised upwards significantly to over 10,000 barrels, and is estimated to have affected up to 90 miles of coastline. A judge has banned several senior Repsol officials from leaving the country until the incident has been investigated more thoroughly.
Growers of key tropical crops such as coffee, cashews and avocados are likely to see major impacts from climate change, according to a new study. Shifting temperature and rainfall patterns will shift the areas where these crops can be grown, impacting the livelihoods of many small-scale farmers who depend on them. Brazil could lose up to 80% of its best Arabica coffee land, and there are likely to be major impacts on other crops in the Dominican Republic, Peru, Indonesia and Benin.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Blowing a gale
Once again, China is showing off its ability to move at a pace and scale unmatched by the rest of the world – in 2021 it jumped to become the country with the largest offshore wind capacity in the world, by building more capacity in one year than the rest of the world has in the last five. The country now has half of the world’s total – 26GW of a global 54GW, with 15GW of that added last year.
However, due to the immense scale of the nation, China is far from green, and continues to lean heavily on fossil fuels. However, the country’s electricity council estimates that non-fossil fuel sources will make up 50% of the Chinese energy mix by the end of this year, for a total of 1300GW of non-polluting energy capacity. It still remains to be seen how China will rein in its immense coal dependence, though it has pledged to ‘control’ coal consumption through to 2025. The country is currently rushing to clear skies ahead of the Winter Olympics, with Beijing air quality plunging into hazardous levels with just days to go.
Not so fast
A US federal court has voided the recent massive auction of oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico. The sale has been quite the saga, with Biden enacting a moratorium on federal leasing when he came into office, which was then struck down by a Louisiana court case, allowing the sale to go ahead. Interestingly, the judge in this most recent case based his decision upon analysis from 2016 that showed when US oil output went up, global oil consumption (and hence emissions) also rose significantly. This is a marked departure from previous assessments, as not only is it pushing for consideration of climate impacts, but it focuses on the global picture rather than simply domestic emissions, making for a much stronger case.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Now we’re cooking with gas…
A new study from Stanford University has found that emissions from gas stoves are far larger than previously thought. This study didn’t look at the side-effects of burning gas (which has already been shown to be extremely unhealthy), but rather at the leaking of unburned gas. Natural gas is mostly methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, and the analysis showed that as much as 1.3% of the gas used by typical US stoves leaks out unburned. Nearly three quarters of this occurs when the stove is turned off, and across the whole country adds up to the equivalent of half a million fossil fuel-powered cars, suggesting that the EPA is currently vastly undercounting residential emissions.
Cash for trees, but without the cash?
Norway and Indonesia have had a major deal for the past ten years where the Nordic country agreed to pay Indonesia to reduce its deforestation. Unfortunately, analysis of the outcomes suggest that whilst some 87m tonnes of CO2 emissions were prevented by pausing logging permits, that added up to just 3-4% of Indonesia’s Paris Agreement goals – not great for a country where around 50% of emissions from 2000-2016 came from deforestation. Moreover, Norway agreed to pay Indonesia $5 per tonne of emissions prevented, but has paid just $56m overall, working out to a far lower rate. The study praised the deal as broadly positive (albeit without massive results), but emphasised that Norway needs to follow through on its promises, and actually pay up.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
US politics are a strange and complex beast at the best of times, and this week Grist published a dive into a particularly gritty case in Ohio. The speaker of the state House of Representatives has been arrested for orchestrating a huge $60m political campaign to elect like-minded politicians and then push through a huge energy bill, all paid for by electricity utilities, who saw an opportunity to secure billions in funding for coal power whilst setting renewables back years, if not decades. Scary stuff!
For our second long read, we take a trip to Senegal. The country has seen a boom in plastic waste, both domestic and imported, in recent decades, but alongside that has grown a massive informal recycling industry, where thousands work to extract value from others’ refuse. However, with increasing global awareness of the waste issue, the government is finally taking action, and is poised to bring recycling into official hands. However that leaves the question: what happens to the vast informal industry that supports so many? Who will be left behind in the inevitable upheaval and change to come?
Finally, we journey back to the US, to Idaho, where a massive cobalt deposit brings up questions of the balance between exploitation and restoration. Cobalt is vital for the clean energy industry, and much of the world is dependent on mining in the DRC. A US source for the metal would be welcomed by many, but the area where the mining would take place still bears the scars of previous mining efforts, for which the remediation is likely to take decades.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
LA is to phase out oil and gas drilling – a major win given that the city currently has the world’s largest concentration of urban oil fields.
A key permit has been revoked for the Mountain Valley oil pipeline, citing a failure to predict and prevent various environmental impacts from the project.
Australian regulators have found that major coal miner Peabody has repeatedly submitted wildly incorrect emissions reports to the government.