FtF News #139 – 9th February 2022
Severe storms, UK climate policy misgivings and the increasing uncertainty of a world amidst the climate crisis
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
I think a lot about the disconnect between our daily actions and the immense scale of the climate crisis. Working in the field helps alleviate at least some climate anxiety for me, but I can very much empathise with those without such a direct outlet who feel overwhelmed. The New York Times took a look at how much more common such anxieties are versus just a decade ago, and for good reason.
It can often feel like there’s nothing we can do on a personal level, that all the blame and all the change lies with corporations and governments. That is definitely true in many ways – we live in a society, after all, and many of the systemic levers are out of our direct control. However, personal emissions are far from equal, and even within a nation like the UK, the wealthiest 5% consume more than the bottom 20%. Behaviour change is hard though, and with the proliferation of offsetting tools, it’s tempting to just pay to make the guilt go away.
It’s easy to slip into binary thinking – either individual change or corporate change, but climate change is very much a case of all hands on deck – we need to do everything that can be done. And just maybe, that avoided flight or veggie burger might help alleviate a little of the ever-present climate dread!
Once again, this week’s issue was ably assisted by Syuan Ruei Chang, who contributed a number of the articles and stories featured this week.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
This week has seen more wild weather across the world. Madagascar is reeling from a second major storm in just a couple of weeks – Cyclone Batsirai swept across the country, killing 21 and displacing over 60,000. The storm comes on the tail of Tropical Storm Ana’s devastation, dealing a double blow. As many as 300,000 people may ultimately have to leave their homes due to the combined efforts of both storms, and they have also taken out much needed crops close to harvest, worsening the country’s dire food shortages. Floods and landslides have also struck Quito, Ecuador’s capital, killing two dozen and injuring many more, in the single heaviest day of rain since 2003.
The Great Barrier Reef is on the verge of another major bleaching event, with sea temperatures at record levels for much of the past few months. Corals can recover from bleaching, but with such events happening ever more frequently, they are not getting the opportunity. A new study suggests that if the world reaches 1.5°C of warming, just 0.2% of corals are likely to escape severe bleaching, suggesting we may face a world where reefs are a mere memory.
The US north-east was blanketed with snow after another severe winter storm last weekend. Such storms are on the rise, with both the number of storms and their severity increasing. There’s not yet a conclusive link to climate change, but increased snowfall is likely induced by warmer oceans, and some posit that the weather changes are another fallout from the increasingly unstable polar vortex.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Nowhere to hide
A new report has found that as much as 8-12% of the oil and gas industry’s methane emissions come from ‘ultra-emitting’ bursts from wells and pipelines – a mix of maintenance and accidents. Whilst on the surface this isn’t great news, as methane is a potent greenhouse gas, it does have its positive sides. Firstly, the report validates once again the use of satellites to track methane emissions accurately and quickly, making sourcing such incidents much faster. Secondly, the fact that such a large portion of methane emissions comes from a relatively small number of sources suggests that preventing them could be relatively cheap and straight-forward.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Ministerial misgivings
The UK is once again struggling with green policies. A report from the Business, Energy and Industry Strategy Committee has warned that plans to decarbonise homes are way short of where they need to be, and ‘lack strategic direction’ (hardly a surprise for anyone following UK politics of late!). Stop-start policies and a lack of serious incentives has meant heat pump installations and insulation improvements are majorly lacking. Despite the Conservatives’ lack-lustre approach to green policy, energy saving measures have cut around £1,000 off UK annual energy bills in the last two decades.
However, a growing movement in the party is pushing to slow down or cancel the UK’s net zero target altogether, blaming cost-of-living increases on green policies. Unfortunately, the tactics they seem to be using are very reminiscent of those used to undermine support for the EU around Brexit, tying in public pain points to climate change, and ultimately advocating for climate delay and further fossil fuel extraction. The energy utilities themselves are vigorously defending the net zero target after having invested significantly into renewable energy in support of the goals. What a mess!
Out with the old, in with… the old?
The USPS is under pressure from the Biden administration over its bid to replace its ageing fleet of vehicles. The postal service was supposed to consider environmental impacts when choosing and negotiating the contract, but reportedly only conducted the analysis after the contract with Oshkosh was awarded. It failed to disclose key economic assumptions, and underestimated emissions impacts.
As a result, the new vehicles are far from ideal. Initially, the contract was supposed to purchase somewhere between 50,000 and 160,000 new vehicles with a mix of technologies – some would be battery electric, and some with fuel-efficient engines, able to be converted to electric down the line. However, somehow by the time the contract was completed, only 10% were electric, and the rest would manage a paltry 8.6mpg (versus 8.2mpg for current USPS vehicles), with no plan to convert them later on. For its part, the USPS says it was hamstrung by financial considerations, and could include more efficient vehicles with more funding.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Many of us across the world have no doubt felt the impacts of higher oil and gas prices in recent months. There are a host of immediate reasons behind the increase, but arguably it’s a consequence of shifts in supply and demand due to climate change. What’s not yet certain is what the impact will be. It could well drive a backlash against climate policies, as has been seen in the past, or it could accelerate the transition to cleaner energy to escape the turmoil. Much of that path is up to government policies and strategy, and it isn’t yet clear how this will play out across the globe.
Another area where climate change is having an impact is prices. Whilst more vulnerable parts of the world feel climate change in the most direct forms – storms, floods, droughts and more – for developed nations, the first visible signs are likely to be higher prices. Climate change is making it harder to guarantee supplies of many goods taken for granted, from coffee to lumber. What is trickier is how to respond to those price rises. Inflation is often tackled by fiscal policy, but if the goods themselves can’t be produced on a warmer planet, that isn’t going to work.
For our last story, we’re changing tack completely. The BBC took a look at the quest to create ‘meaty’ plant-based meat, and asks whether completely replicating meat is even a worthwhile goal. Food is a complex and emotive topic, and there’s no definitive right answer here. What’s key is ensuring that meat and dairy consumption trends down, particularly in the western world, however that is accomplished.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
A new study suggests there may be 9,200 more tree species than previously thought.
Exxon Mobil is the latest oil firm to post massive profits as oil and gas prices soar.
Switzerland is working to reduce barriers to deploying renewables to speed progress to its 2030 climate goals.
A Dutch firm has developed a new form of undersea pumped hydro to store excess energy from offshore wind farms.