FtF News #153 – 25th May 2022
The Aussie climate win, the effects of heat on sleep and the hitherto uncounted emissions of your bank account
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
It was great to see this week that Scott Morrison’s climate-ignoring Australian government finally fell to a more climate-positive party. It does seem more and more like elections are being won and lost on climate issues, which is a really key tipping point – politics often seems to lag other areas in terms of climate awareness, so seeing it reflected in this arena gives me real hope that the giant cog-wheels of global action are turning at last. Of course, the sorts of mild commitments and loose promises that are the norm right now are far from adequate, but we shouldn’t ignore the very real progress being made.
Once again, this week’s issue was ably assisted by Syuan Ruei Chang, who contributed a number of the articles and stories featured this week.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Heat and fire continue to dominate the weather as 2022 progresses, with Spain bracing for scorching temperatures this week – some areas could see as much as 10-20°C above normal May temperatures. Over in the US, the largest of the numerous wildfires in New Mexico has now become the largest in state history, and given its low containment, it is not likely to slow any time soon.
The Indian and Pakistani heatwave continues to wreak havoc, and the first attribution studies suggest the event could have been made as much as 30 times more likely by climate change. In some areas of Pakistan, livestock are dropping like flies thanks to extreme heat and a lack of water – a real problem for the many communities that depend on the animals. India has moved rapidly to shut down wheat exports after the heat hit harvests in the NW hard, further pressuring already sky-high global wheat prices.
A study out this week looked at one of the more unexpected consequences of high temperatures – poor sleep. The researchers conducted one of the most thorough studies yet of sleep disruption, looking at 47,000 people across 68 countries, and found a strong correlation with ambient temperatures. Perhaps surprisingly, those in warmer countries were as affected by similar temperatures as those in cooler nations, suggesting that even without heatwaves, many people in places like India and Pakistan are already impacted.
Finally, research has found that premature deaths from pollution have risen by ⅔ globally since the year 2000. Of those, more than 90% have occurred in rapidly developing low- and middle-income countries, with improvements in areas like water-borne pathogens and sanitation offset by increased fossil fuel use, rising populations and unplanned urbanisation. Over 9m people die from pollution each year – 1 in 6 deaths worldwide – more than road traffic, HIV/Aids, malaria and TB combined.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
The Right Incentive
The EU has announced the details of its huge €300bn plan to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels. The plan calls for a significant acceleration in the roll-out of renewables across the bloc, along with a major push on energy efficiency and ways to reduce overall energy demand. The goal is to cut gas consumption by around ⅔, as well as doubling renewable power capacity by 2030. Not all of the plan is clean – there is money allocated to LNG facilities and other fossil fuel equipment – but overall around 80% of the expected reduction in Russian gas will come from non-fossil sources, with just 4% of the planned investment going to fossil fuels.
Climate wins down under
Australia’s Labor Party has come out on top in the country’s recent elections, signalling a change in direction for Aussie climate policy. Whilst the party did not take a super radical position on climate, it nevertheless campaigned on a platform of climate action. The new PM has pushed for a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030, and supports initiatives to improve EV take-up in the country. The big elephant in the room is Australia’s huge fossil fuel exports, which so far the Labor Party has kept quiet about. However, given the gains for the Greens and pro-climate independents, pressure may grow in parliament for more aggressive action on that front.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
War: what is it good for?
McKinsey has attempted to map out the impacts of the ongoing war in Ukraine on the global net-zero transition. In the more immediate term, Russia’s dominance of key metals in the renewables space means global supply chains in these areas – solar, batteries and more – are likely to struggle for some time to come. The war is also pushing more money back into fossil fuels in the short term, including coal, as an attempt to stem the steep rise in energy prices. However, in the longer term, it looks as though the conflict will ultimately push more money towards renewables as nations look to secure their energy independence wherever possible (see this week’s Planet Positives for the EU’s measures on this front).
Showing their colours
Comments by HSBC’s head of sustainable finance Stuart Kirk sent waves through the world of ESG investing, as he disparaged the risks of climate change for investors and branding climate warnings as “unsubstantiated” and “shrill”. Despite the Bank of England’s first stress test revealing £340 billion in climate-related losses by 2050, it appears that the sector is far from being on board to tackling climate change. Whilst HSBC suspended Kirk following his remarks, it remains unclear how much his views differ from those of his employer – banks are continuing to funnel vast sums into fossil fuel development and ignoring the resultant impact. A new report found that the sizable cash stockpiles of the tech giants could, in the hands of bankers, be generating more emissions than the companies themselves.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Offsets are just one of those topics that never quite goes away in the climate space – a host of studies have shown the misleading and often inaccurate claims of all manner of offset schemes, yet still many industries use them to try and cancel out their emissions. The New York Times produced a great overview on the many complexities of navigating offsets and their various issues. As one expert commented, perhaps the best approach from a personal perspective is to, ‘think of it as a donation, not as buying credits to cover your emissions’ – they might not cancel out your flying habit, but offsetting projects do produce some real benefits.
China’s energy policy is a subject of constant fascination for those of us watching from abroad. It’s the world’s single biggest polluter, and is still expanding coal power capacity, but is also pushing forward with renewables in a way no other nation can match. Carbon Brief covered a study attempting to understand what this will mean for China’s 2030 climate goals. The news, as always, is mixed – the country is due to go significantly beyond its goals, potentially peaking emissions as soon as 2025, but even this titanic achievement is not in line with a 1.5°C world.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
Tesla has been dropped from the S&P 500 ESG index due to concerns over working conditions and its handling of safety investigations.
Nissan and Mitsubishi have unveiled the first electric ‘kei’ micro-cars for the Japanese market.
The US DoE is planning to put billions into direct-air capture projects to try and scale up the technology and reduce costs.