FtF News #155 – 8th June 2022
Tyre pollution, the sad state of the Rio Grande and novel clean energy solutions
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
This week’s newsletter is a little shorter than usual – the long Jubilee weekend here in the UK and its associated bank holidays have meant there’s been a little less climate news than normal! Instead, I’ve decided to cover a few more Long Reads this time around, to give you some less immediate but hopefully still interesting content.
Once again, this week’s issue was ably assisted by Syuan Ruei Chang, who contributed a number of the articles and stories featured this week.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Brazil has seen yet more torrential rain, resulting in flooding and catastrophic landslides in the state of Pernambuco, in the NE of the country. Over 100 people are dead, with more still unaccounted for, and thousands more have been displaced. Unfortunately, the extreme weather has not yet cleared, complicating rescue and recovery efforts. Meanwhile, Mexico has seen its strongest ever May hurricane – Hurricane Agatha struck the east coast as a Cat 2 storm with 105mph winds. The storm is projected to pass right across the country and out into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could fuel the first storm of the Atlantic storm season.
CO2 levels reached their annual peak recently, and yet again this year has seen a new record, with atmospheric CO2 reaching just under 421ppm, solidly 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. A new paper found that even if emissions were halted right now, we would only have a 42% chance of keeping global temperatures below 1.5°C – the window of opportunity continues to narrow.
New studies have shown the shockingly high levels of pollution produced by vehicle tyres. Analysis of particles from tyres suggests they could be producing nearly 2,000 times more pollution than exhausts. Whilst exhaust pollution has been strictly monitored and reduced in past decades, tyre pollution has actually become worse thanks to more, heavier vehicles. Tyres produce over 1tn ultra-fine particles (under 23nm) per kilometre driven, with around 300,000 tonnes of rubber lost from tyres in the US and UK each year. The super fine nature of much of the pollution means it slides under most regulations, yet is also so small it can pass directly into organs via our blood.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Exponential EVs
BNEF have released their latest Electric Vehicle Outlook, summarising the state of the electric vehicle market, as well as their predictions for the coming years. Whilst much has been made of lithium shortages due to global supply chain issues and skyrocketing battery demand, EVs are still very much on the rise. Of note is BNEF’s suggestion that whilst the overall number of vehicles globally may continue to rise, the number of ICE vehicles may well have already peaked and be declining. It’s also interesting that much of the impact and sales of EVs are in the 2- and 3-wheeler markets, which are not as big in the West, but are vast in countries like India and China.
Some pundits are still concerned about the high price of lithium, which could cause battery prices to increase for the first time in a decade, and delay the tipping point of EVs becoming cheaper than ICE vehicles without subsidy. However, a recent study looked at vehicle prices in the US, and found that for many states, EVs are already less costly than their fossil fuel-powered counterparts. Most people buy cars on finance, so headline prices are less important than ongoing monthly costs, which are markedly lower for EVs thanks to low running costs.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Protection, but only on paper
The UK has a host of offshore marine protected areas (MPAs), but despite being set up to protect vulnerable parts of the seabed and their associated ecosystems, 90% of them are being bottom-trawled and dredged. Tracking by Global Fishing Watch found fishing vessels spent 132,000 hours in MPAs last year, with nearly 32,000 of those involving bottom trawling. Even this estimate is likely undercounting, as the NGO was only able to identify the types of gear used on half the boats analysed. The UK has banned bottom trawling in just two MPAs so far, and action on others has lagged for years.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
The Rio Grande is a river of legend, but these days it’s but a shadow of its former self. For decades, more and more water has been pulled away to feed farms, draining the river so far that much of the south of it is dry for most of the year. Damming the river has also prevented once regular floods that replenished the unique ecosystems along its length, not to mention producing the soil that those water-extracting farmers depend upon. Measures are now being taken to try and save what’s left, but it might be too little too late.
The Niger Delta is one of the most polluted places on the planet, thanks to decades of oil extraction, with (mostly foreign) oil companies taking their fill and barely acting on thousands of spills that poisoned ground, water, and local villagers. However, in 2004, one affected village decided to fight back, and with the help of an NGO, sued Shell over a number of devasting oil leaks. Finally, in 2021, after years of delaying tactics, a court in the Netherlands finally ruled in favour of the villagers. Whilst the win was much celebrated, Shell has yet to pay out, and it remains to be seen just how long the plaintiffs might have to wait for meaningful compensation.
Onto something a little more positive – ocean power! Ocean thermal energy conversion is a technology that generates electricity from the difference in temperature between warm surface waters and the cold of the deep ocean. Currently, it remains at small scale and relatively high price, but whilst it can’t compete with wind and solar on the mainland, it could prove an ideal technology for remote island nations in the tropics. Such countries still need baseload power, and a renewable alternative could also prevent costly fossil fuel imports.
Finally, a look at fusion – the quintessential ‘always 20 years away’ technology – but advances in magnet technology by a company called Commonwealth Fusion mean that the ultimate power source might finally be within reach. Of course there’s still years of work to build out power plants, but it seems like finally the challenges that remain are beyond the science realm and into the world of engineering, which is hugely exciting.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
Scientists have found what they believe to be the world’s largest plant – a 4,500 year old ribbon weed that covers over 200sq km of seabed off the Australian coast.
Japan is urging citizens to cut power usage amidst high fuel prices and impending high summer temperatures.
Indonesia has drafted a bill to subsidise renewable energy and open a nuclear power plant to try and meet its net-zero emissions goals.