FtF News #156 – 15th June 2022

A gold-rush for gas, space debris, and three years of FtF

Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.

It feels hard to believe at times, but I’ve been writing this newsletter for over three years now. That time has seen a lot of changes, both in the newsletter and in my life around it. There’s been a global pandemic, an attempted coup in the US, and much more! In my own journey, I’ve gone from a climate newbie to dedicating my career to it, which has been quite a ride! Along the way, FtF has also changed, with different formats, deep dives and various other experiments.

As I’m writing this, I’m currently embarking on a new stage in my non-FtF journey – I’m in the process of starting a new company with a couple of other awesome climate-focused folks. As part of that, FtF is probably going to have to change as well – I do enjoy putting together this newsletter every week, but the time demands of this and an early stage startup are already proving tough!

On that front, I’ve got a question – which parts of FtF do you most enjoy? Is there a particular section you look forward to each week?

Once again, this week’s issue was ably assisted by Syuan Ruei Chang, who contributed a number of the articles and stories featured this week.

State of the world

Climate research and findings, weather events and studies

The Greek wildfire season has started already, with around 60 fires burning across the country, including a significant blaze near the capital, Athens. Last year saw fires raging across much of southern Europe, and this year is likely to see more of the same.

Researchers have found microplastics in fresh snow on the Ross Ice Shelf. At this point they’ve been detected in virtually every location on the planet, from deep ocean trenches to the tops of mountain ranges. They’ve been found on Antarctica before, but this is the first time the tiny particles have been found in fresh snowfall.

A new study suggests that a number of key changes to how we make and use our cars and homes could reduce their emissions by at least a third. Steel, concrete and other raw materials for cars and houses make up a huge proportion of global emissions, but the research suggests that a variety of shifts, including ride sharing, smaller cars and more compact housing could be key to reducing impact. Crucially, none of the changes suggested required any technological breakthrough, though they would need coordinated action from both citizens and politicians.

Decarbonising aviation is a topic dear to my heart, but a new report by the International Council on Clean Transportation suggests it’s not going to be an easy route. The non-profit attempted to map out various scenarios for reducing flying emissions, and even their most aggressive model was still only in line with a 1.75°C world. Almost every route sees demand having to fall alongside major ramps in ticket prices, with the majority of emissions reductions coming from sustainable fuels, which although much hyped by the industry, exist in tiny quantities currently, and command a huge price premium.

Planet positives

Moving towards a greener and more equitable world

Speed and Scale

China, for all its complexity and opaque political dynamics, continues to impress in terms of both the rapidity and sheer scale of its climate manoeuvres. Barely 10 years ago, Chinese cities had some of the worst air pollution in the world, but after widespread measures to clean up, the country lowered levels of PM2.5 pollution by 40% in just seven years (it took the US around 30 years to achieve a similar reduction). The size of the shift was enough to decrease air pollution levels globally, albeit only slightly, despite the rest of the world actually worsening. However, pollution in Beijing is still around three times worse than LA, one of the most polluted cities in the US.

Meanwhile, PowerChina has announced plans to construct over 200 pumped hydro stations for a total of 270GW of new capacity by 2025. China had already announced major increases in hydro power in its latest 5 Year Plan, but even the announced ~120GW pales in comparison to what was announced this week, which is more than the entire electricity generation capacity of Japan, and would be enough to meet 23% of China’s peak demand on its own.

Adverse circumstances

Events that move the needle in the wrong direction

Stepping on the Gas

High energy prices are threatening to undo climate progress, as Climate Action Tracker warns of a new “gold rush” for fossil fuel and infrastructure – notably gas. Production of fossil fuels has risen in many countries, as has investment into infrastructure, leading to the global energy system risking being “locked-in” to another decade of high emission sources. High prices from the war in Ukraine have also enabled the revival of oil sands in Alberta, which are expensive in both the costs of production and impacts on the climate, being one of the dirtiest fossil fuels around. Meanwhile, against the wishes of the local council, UK’s housing minister Stuart Andrew will allow oil and gas exploration near the Surrey Area of Natural Beauty (AONB), a move that has been decried for destroying natural beauty, undermining local democracy and worsening the climate crisis in one fell swoop.

Empty Promises

Particularly in the US, the rise in renewables has been accompanied by Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs). These were designed as a mechanism to incentivise building out renewable energy capacity, with energy companies able to sell RECs alongside their energy to companies who wished to support the green transition. However, RECs are increasingly being used in place of actually decarbonising energy supplies, with companies buying ever more of them and marking them down against their carbon footprint, despite research showing that purchase of RECs has little to no effect on whether solar or wind farms are being built. Between 2015-19, surveyed companies used RECs for ⅔ of their reported reductions in electricity supply emissions, suggesting that they’ve found yet another method to greenwash.

Long Reads

Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics

Our first long read this week is a look at Salt Lake City, which exists in a delicate ecological balancing act, with the eponymous lake and its inflow rivers supporting the city and its variety of industries and people. However, the fast growth of the area’s population is combining with climate change-induced shifts to upset that balance, and the lake has shrunk by ⅔ in recent decades. If it dries out completely, the whole area is likely to crumble, but arresting the change requires not only battling climate change, but population growth and norms that see any restriction on water use as anathema.

Then to a very different topic – space! Space debris seems far removed from the climate crisis, but in many ways the way that the situation is developing is very similar, with satellites, rocket boosters and other debris discarded without a care, until it starts to create very real impacts on daily operations. Cleanup is possible, but is far more expensive than not littering in the first place, and with no single body to enforce it, it’s easy for nations to continue ignoring the problem until it’s too late.

Quick Headlines

Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite

• MEPs have rejected attempts to water down the EU’s plan to end sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2035.

• The UK is scrapping its subsidies for electric cars, saying it wants to support charging and electrification of other vehicle types instead.

• The Ocean Cleanup, the Dutch NGO tackling oceanic plastic waste, has trialled a fence to stop plastic pollution from one of the world’s most polluted rivers reaching the sea.