FtF News #160 – 27th July 2022
Record-breaking heat, Jet Zero and the abnormal profits of the oil sector
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly(-ish!) rundown of the latest climate news.
Well, it’s been quite an eventful two weeks, particularly weather-wise – the UK and European heatwave has reminded everyone that yes, climate change is here, and it’s not going to be fun! It’s unfortunate that it takes major events in the Western world to cause this level of ‘climate awakening’, despite many areas particularly in the global south having experienced extremes like this for years. Still, if it brings more people into the climate fold, that can only be a good thing.
On the FtF front, as you’ve probably noted, the schedule has been a little less regular of late, as my startup commitments don’t give me nearly as much time as I used to have to put this newsletter together. As a result, I’ve decided to move to a two weekly schedule from now on, and I’ll be trying out a simpler format from the next post onwards to reduce my workload a bit. It’s the first major change in a while, but hopefully it’s a positive one!
Once again, this week’s issue was ably assisted by Syuan Ruei Chang, who contributed a number of the articles and stories featured this week.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Much of the climate weather coverage these past two weeks has been on European heatwaves, with much of France, Spain, the UK and Portugal sweltering. Mainland Europe saw temperature records falling in many areas, alongside major wildfires that led to thousands being evacuated in several countries. Embarrassingly, a 35,000 acre wildfire in Spain was actually (accidentally) started by a tree planting company in an ironic twist. The heat and fires have sent air pollution soaring across the continent.
Meanwhile, the UK saw temperature records broken by around 1.5°C as the country broke 40°C for the first time. London’s fire service saw its busiest day since WWII amidst the heat, and a huge number of train services had to be cancelled entirely. Unfortunately, it also proved an opportunity for climate denial to take the stage in several major right wing media outlets in an impressive show of cognitive dissonance. Whilst the heatwave demonstrated how poorly the UK’s infrastructure and housing deals with extreme heat, the effects were far from evenly distributed, with the worst affected being deprived areas, with many poorer urban developments left sweltering.
A new study has attempted to quantify the damage inflicted by countries due to climate impacts, and found that the US has caused a staggering $1.9tn in damages to other countries through its emissions since 1990. A good thing that Joe Manchin has decided, after months of negotiating climate provisions in a major bill, that he will… block all climate provisions in any major bill! The top five countries – the US, China, Russia, India and Brazil – contributed $6tn over that time, a total of 11% of annual global GDP. However, most northern and western nations, whilst contributing heavily, have received few of the impacts themselves. The research didn’t include biodiversity loss, cultural harm and deaths from disasters, so the true cost is likely even greater.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Baby steps
Last week saw success for a legal challenge brought by Friends of the Earth, ClientEarth and the Good Law Project. The case sought to challenge the UK government’s net zero policies, and resulted in a ruling by the judge that the government has to explain exactly how its policies will reach net zero by 2050 – something many have hoped for, as currently policy and targets seem poorly aligned to many.
India is rumoured to be preparing a new submission under the Paris Agreement in September. Whilst the nation announced a net zero goal of 2070 at COP26 last year, its climate strategy has been declared insufficient so far. However, in most international summits, India has pushed strongly for more funding for developing nations to decarbonise, and says stronger plans are predicated on significant support from richer nations – it wants $1tn just for itself by 2030 to decarbonise faster (of an estimated $12tn total that the country will need by 2060).
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Head in the clouds
The UK has finally released its highly anticipated net zero strategy for aviation, dubbed ‘Jet Zero’. Unfortunately, the strategy falls way short of being suitable, ignoring the majority of advice from the government’s climate advisors, the CCC in favour of a reliance on unproven tech like SAFs and zero emissions flights. Ultimately, even in the ‘high ambition’ scenarios, the government’s new plan still has flights emitting 19m tonnes of CO2-e by 2050, which will need removing for the UK to reach net zero – a tall order given the current state of carbon removal tech. The CCC warned that the only real way to reduce flight emissions would be to reduce demand, something the government has actively ruled out altogether, instead suggesting passenger numbers could grow 70% by 2050.
Another aviation topic that’s been discussed heavily of late is the outsize impact of private jets, with the discovery that a number of high profile celebrities have been using their planes for flights lasting just minutes, producing vast quantities of emissions. Whilst private jets are a relatively small proportion of aviation, traffic is growing rapidly, and they’re primarily used on small journeys by the richest of the rich. Transport and Environment released a report last week detailing the impact of these flights in Europe – the flights are 5-14x more polluting than an equivalent commercial flight, and the majority are on routes already covered by high speed rail! However, maybe there’s an opportunity here for the ultra-rich to bootstrap the future of zero emissions flight, given their predilection for such short journeys by air.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
A dive into the challenges facing the Gavião people, who are dealing with the impacts of an enormous iron ore rail line that carves through their land. Whilst they have been compensated for the impact of the railway, the decision has split their once united community, and the project has caused major environmental and cultural shifts that will likely not recover. Now, the company wants to build a second line alongside the first, which is likely to worsen all of these problems.
Eastern Australia is facing increasingly frequent and extreme cycles of flooding. As has been seen in the US and elsewhere, this is leaving some residents trapped in an eternal loop of trying to rebuild, then being flooded once again. Despite this, the government is suspending the need for developers to consider flood risks amidst a housing shortage, risking yet more people being trapped in the same situation.
Pastoralism is a traditional form of sustainable livestock farming that has been practised in Senegal for generations, but the latest generation is struggling to adapt to tougher conditions. These can force herders to march their cattle for a month or more to find fresh grazing, bringing them into increasing conflict with farmers who don’t want them damaging their crops. Whilst pastoralism is one of the best systems for the parched Sahel, it is increasingly under threat.
A look into the backstory behind the Red Hill fuel leak in Hawai’i, where fuel has leaked on and off from massive fuel bunkers into the island of O’ahu’s only aquifer, contaminating the water supplies of around 93,000 people. However, the struggle for justice here is just part of a much longer and larger story of military impunity and US colonialism going all the way back to the island nation’s capture over a century ago.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
New analysis suggests the oil sector has delivered $2.8bn in pure profit per year for 50 years straight – no wonder the oil lobby has such power across the world.
Pacific Island national leaders have declared a climate emergency following a recent gathering of the Pacific Islands Forum.
India is planning a $10bn tender for 50,000 electric buses in order to accelerate the decarbonisation of public transport.
The UK’s Environment Agency has called for water company execs to be jailed for their role in rapidly worsening water pollution across the country.