FtF News #175 – 8th March 2023
An impending El Niño, a UN treaty to protect the oceans, and the complexity of electrifying trucks
Is it March already? This year is flying past – it really feels like everything is happening faster and faster year on year (or maybe I’m just getting older). It’s definitely felt like one of those weeks where study after study shows that climate change is not just approaching, but here, right now.
It can get a bit overwhelming, but as always, mixed in amongst the warning signs and wildfires, there are positive signs – the UN Treaty of the High Seas, agreed upon after a decade of negotiations, the EU carbon price passing €100/tonne, another new hydrogen powered aircraft taking to the skies. A problem this big will never be solved all at once, but alongside all that evidence of the problem itself, there’s real signs that we’re starting to move the world towards a better path.
Once again, this week’s issue was ably assisted by Syuan Ruei Chang, who contributed a number of the articles and stories featured this week. If you spot any stories you’d like to share, you can submit them here.
Wild Weather
Mother nature’s reactions to the ever-warming world
Argentina is seeing a wave of extreme weather, from mid-summer frosts and droughts that are impacting crops, to record heat scorching the capital, Buenos Aires.
France is facing its driest winter in 64 years, and is considering unprecedented water restrictions for the time of year as a result.
This year’s spring in the US is the earliest in 40 years of records, with plants blooming 10-20 days earlier than they used to.
California is dealing with major snowfall, including in regions such as LA which rarely receive such weather. The heavy winter storms may have killed over half of the Monarch butterflies which overwinter along the state coastline.
Cuba is battling massive forest fires in the east of the country, which have burned over 2,000 hectares so far.
The rare triple La Niña weather pattern is largely expected to flip to the warmer El Niño this year, which is likely to bring an early taste of 1.5°C to many parts of the world.
It’s Science!
The latest from in climate research and analysis
Global CO2 emissions hit a new record last year, despite European and Chinese emissions declining, though worryingly around 1/5th of the emissions growth was linked to extreme weather events.
Emissions from high-methane foods such as meat, dairy and rice could be enough to push us past 1.5°C, although it should be possible to reduce these by up to 55%.
New analysis from the IEA has found that methane emissions from the energy sector continue to rise, despite being largely avoidable at minimal cost.
Boreal forest fires continue to worsen, with satellite image analysis showing that in 2021, such fires contributed 21% of all wildfire emissions, up from around 10% in the 2000s.
Scientists have proven a clear correlation between rainfall and deforestation, which could prove a way to persuade countries of the benefits of leaving their rainforests intact.
A study has found that cutting air pollution can improve children’s lung function development, and reduce how many end up with significant issues.
Party Political Broadcast
Climate politics are a special creature indeed
UN states have finally agreed upon a treaty to protect the high seas – those parts of the ocean not owned by any one nation – after nearly a decade of negotiations. The treaty aims to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030, limiting shipping, fishing and seabed mining.
Vanuatu’s call for the ICJ to rule on international climate justice has now gained backing from over 100 nations as the tiny country builds support for the motion.
Indian Ocean states have agreed to a temporary ban on various types of industrial fishing gear in an attempt to let fish stocks recover.
China is reportedly considering making ESG disclosures mandatory for domestic public companies to coerce more into reducing their impact .
EU countries continue to fight over whether nuclear energy should be considered green, with powerful voices on both sides making agreement unlikely for now.
Thailand is to ban plastic waste imports from 2025, the latest SE Asian state to cut off imports from wealthy western countries exporting their rubbish.
The EU is pushing ahead with reforms to packaging rules that could cause a global shift in how companies approach plastic waste, partly triggered by the increasing difficulty of exporting said refuse.
Money makes the world go around
The machinations of climate finance
Government subsidies to fossil fuels reached a record $1tn last year, according to the IEA – more than double the sum invested in renewable energy sources.
The EU carbon price has hit €100/tonne for the first time, climbing 20% just this year, and analysts suggest it could reach €150 as soon as next winter.
The Net-Zero Banking Alliance is on increasingly rocky ground, with green banks threatening to leave as the biggest members refuse to stop pouring hundreds of billions into fossil fuels. Most members have a ratio of less than 1:1 clean energy to fossil fuel investments, despite a stated initial goal of the alliance being a 4:1 ratio.
Analysis suggests that UK flood damage costs could rise by 20% due to climate change, as another study has found that US homes in flood zones are overvalued to the tune of billions, and a third report has concluded that Germany could face up to €900bn in costs due to climate change by 2050.
Haha, Business!
Climate happenings in the corporate world
Lufthansa has been banned from using an ad campaign that claimed to ‘protect the future’ by the UK’s ASA. The news comes as the Royal Society warns that no reasonable low emissions alternative to conventional jet fuel yet exists.
Six fossil fuel companies donated at least $700m to 27 universities across the US from 2010-20.
Drax joins the leagues of energy companies posting record profits, with its takings rising 83.6% to £731m.
BP’s CEO is expected to receive a massive bonus up to £11.4m shortly after it too posted massive profits.
The Future is Electric
Renewables, EVs and all things electrification
California has ambitious plans to electrify its trucks, but the transition, as in cars, is complex – range limitations mean only certain routes are suitable so far, and the upfront costs are proving a big barrier for many owner-operators.
A new study has found that heat pumps are up to three times cheaper than green hydrogen as a home heating solution, despite significant efforts towards the latter in some countries.
The UK has been paying hundreds of millions to turn on wind turbines and turn on gas generators instead, as major power interconnects are not powerful enough to handle the power being generated.
The chief executive of Scottish Power has urged reformation of the planning process for offshore wind, bemoaning the overheads that can mean projects take up to a decade to complete.
Nissan is speeding up its electrification efforts, and now plans for 98% of European sales to be hybrid or electric by 2026.
Price-capped EV incentives introduced as part of the US IRA already seem to be bringing used EV prices down as dealers ensure vehicles qualify for the credits.
Breakthroughs
New inventions to inspire hope
Universal Hydrogen has flown the largest ever hydrogen fuel-cell powered aircraft, breaking a record set just a few months before by ZeroAvia. The company is making both retrofit kits for regional aircraft as well as a containerised fuel solution to make supply easier.
The UN has suggested that solar geoengineering may be our only option to cool the planet on a reasonable timescale, but warned that major research and governance is required before further steps are made.
Climate Inequity
A hard look at the inequities of the climate crisis
The largest Native American lobby group has called for a moratorium on offshore wind, saying their concerns have been ignored and they have been cut out of the development process.
Greta Thunberg drew headlines after being arrested at a protest for similar reasons, this time in Norway, where a huge wind park was put up in Sámi lands.
Bloomberg created a visual article illustrating just how enormous the impact of Elon Musk’s private jet is – he flew 171 times in 2022, creating a footprint at least 140x that of the average US citizen.
Speaking truths
Efforts in activism and awareness
Eduardo Mendúa, an Ecuadorian who fought oil extraction on Indigenous lands, has been killed in an attack likely motivated by his activism.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
The New Yorker re-examines the environmental impact of SUVs, and why whilst converting them to electric helps, it’s nowhere near a full solution.
Japan has a complicated relationship with nuclear power, but with energy prices soaring, the country is starting to warm to the technology for the first time since the Fukushima disaster.
Gabon has long protected its rainforests with care, but as its oil reserves run down, it now needs to find a way to grow and prosper, ideally without cutting down its trees.
Whilst the new electric Ford F-150 claims to be clean and green, aluminium for its massive body is sourced from problematic mines and refineries in the Amazon linked to mass pollution.
In the wake of Lula’s reelection, Brazil’s environmental protection agency Ibama are back on the offensive, pushing against a vast wave of illegal miners pressuring Indigenous tribes deep in the Amazon.