FtF News #190 – 1st November 2023
Storms aplenty, renewables on a roll, and wooden wind turbines
Hello again! It’s been quite the break since our last episode, and based on the massive backlog of climate news I’ve had to work through, it’s been rather eventful on the climate front. 2023 is far from over, but it’s feeling increasingly clear that this is a year where the weather has truly gone haywire. From massive storms to flooding to fire, it’s been relentless, and now it’s looking like the year will break the record for the hottest year, despite the cool start. Despite that, there are some promising signs – forecasts are suggesting global electricity emissions may peak this year, and peak oil might be as soon as next year. It does feel as though the good ship humanity is slowly changing course away from fossil fuels, and none too soon!
On a slightly different note, finding the time to put this newsletter together every two weeks is proving ever more tricky, so I’ve decided to put a call out for volunteers. If you would be interested in helping make Forge the Future happen, there’s plenty of options – from sourcing new stories, to editing, to writing deep dives or explainers (old hands may remember when we did some of those!). If this appeals, please do reach out by hitting reply on this newsletter.
As always, if you spot any stories you’d like to share, you can submit them here.
Wild Weather
Mother nature’s reactions to the ever-warming world
September was the hottest September on record, and was 0.9°C warmer than the September average from 1991-2020 – the largest such margin ever observed.
After recent weeks, analysis now suggests there is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, even with 3 months still remaining.
Australian towns have had to battle wildfires and floods within hours of each other, as dangerous wildfire weather was suddenly broken by a cold front which brought flash floods to some regions.
At least 14 people were killed by flooding in Sikkim, India, when a glacial lake suddenly burst after massive amounts of rainfall.
New York has joined the list of places struck by flooding this year, with extensive flooding at the start of October.
Extreme weather has damaged Europe’s olive harvest for the second year running, leaving many farmers struggling amidst rising labour and energy costs.
Hurricane Otis set new records for rapid intensification, with wind speeds increasing by 70 mph in just 12 hours, taking the storm to a Category 5 when it struck the Mexican coast.
Super Typhoon Bolaven, which brewed up in the Pacific in mid-October, became the strongest storm on Earth at the time, with winds topping 178 mph.
It’s Science!
The latest from in climate research and analysis
New analysis shows that extreme weather has cost around $16m per hour for the past 20 years.
On a similar vein, extreme weather has killed at least 15,000 people in Africa in 2023, with the majority killed by the recent disaster in Libya.
Antarctica has now lost 7.5tn tons of ice since 1997, and almost half of the ice shelves are showing ‘no sign of recovery’. Forecasts suggest that regardless of future emissions, significant melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet might now be inevitable.
Research suggests that warmer ocean temperatures are causing hurricanes to grow bigger and stronger much faster.
A new report on planetary ‘vital signs’ suggests that 20 of 35 such metrics are at new extremes.
Researchers have found microplastics in clouds on top of both Mount Fuji and Mount Oyama in Japan, suggesting there is almost nowhere on the planet free from plastics.
As many as one in six species is at risk of extinction in Great Britain, including 43% of birds, with the main culprits being climate change and intensive farming.
New analysis has found that rubber farming is driving nearly twice as much deforestation as previously thought, including in key biodiversity areas.
Aluminium production is an immensely dirty industry, and with demand forecast to grow 40% by 2030, shifting more to recycled aluminium is essential.
A new study suggests that higher snow reflectivity in the northern hemisphere due to lower air pollution will reduce snowmelt significantly.
Party Political Broadcast
Climate politics are a special creature indeed
Ireland has just rejected a new fossil gas import terminal on climate grounds, becoming likely the first nation to do so, bucking wider trends in Europe.
Meanwhile in the US, Biden is being urged to block a massive new gas export hub which if built would ship up to 24m tons of LNG per year.
The UK and EU are to push for a ban on subsidies for foreign coal, oil and gas projects at a closed-door OECD meeting next month.
EU ministers have backed CO2 targets for trucking, which would see average emissions for new trucks drop 45% by 2030, 65% by 2035, and 90% by 2040.
Stockholm plans to ban petrol and diesel cars entirely in part of the city from 2025 to reduce pollution.
New EU rules could help spur large-scale battery recycling, by both requiring manufacturers to collect waste batteries, but also to use recycled materials in new ones.
Many local governments in the US are exploiting a loophole in the Clean Air Act to avoid reporting excess air pollution, masking the true level of impact.
Money makes the world go around
The machinations of climate finance
The EU has launched the first phase of its carbon border tariff, the first such system in the world, which will require importers to report the emissions from producing the goods they bring in, and from 2026, they will have to pay for those emissions.
Thanks to the UK government tanking its own carbon price, UK businesses are now faced with significant fees to the EU, as many UK exports to the EU now come under the new tariff.
The UK has also fallen 40% behind on its £11.6bn climate finance pledge to developing countries, and would have to double spending to meet the target.
The Biden administration is putting up to $7bn into seven regional hubs to make and use clean hydrogen, and promote it as a fuel.
Moving half of the funds spent on fossil fuel heating subsidies to heat pumps could transition all European home heating to renewables by 2040.
Haha, Business!
Climate happenings in the corporate world
A new investigation has revealed the massive influence of the meat and dairy lobby in pushing the UN FAO to downplay the impact of agriculture on the climate crisis.
European airlines are up in arms about Dutch plans to phase out fossil fuel subsidies across the EU, with airlines receiving €3.6bn from the Dutch government alone this year.
Their US counterparts, despite talking up their green credentials, are lagging their European brethren in introducing so-called sustainable fuels.
After years of testing, Lego has dropped plans to make bricks from recycled bottles, after discovering that requirements for new equipment meant the material wouldn’t actually reduce overall emissions.
Shell has, in its latest bizarre PR adventure, started sponsoring influencers on popular battle royale game Fortnite.
The Future is Electric
EVs and all things electrification
Maybe not quite EVs, but the UK government recently cancelled the northern leg of the long-awaited HS2 high speed rail line, crushing dreams of better public transport to the north of the UK.
Clean Green Energy Machine
Renewables versus coal – a look at the changing energy system
A report from energy thinktank Ember forecasts that global electricity emissions may peak this year, as renewable installations continue to accelerate.
The IEA’s latest report similarly shows that renewables are on an ‘unstoppable’ rise, though they warn that fossil fuel investment must be halved.
Australia recently generated enough renewable electricity to meet 98.6% of its total demand – the highest level yet seen in the country.
The US Department of Energy has announced a $3.5bn upgrade to the country’s electrical grid, improving transmission and reliability.
The world’s largest offshore wind farm, Dogger Bank, has supplied its first power to the grid – the facility will produce 3.6GW once fully operational.
UK PM Rishi Sunak is planning to restrict solar installations on farmland, which campaigners say will raise bills and put UK energy security at risk.
Combining solar parks with prairie in the US could be a way to both boost clean energy and restore biomes and biodiversity across the country.
Breakthroughs
New inventions to inspire hope
Scientists have found a new way to make hydrogen from waste plastic that also produces graphene as a byproduct, which could make profitable green hydrogen a reality.
A startup in Sweden is making wind turbines from wood, and is currently assembling the world’s tallest wood turbine, which will stand 150m tall once complete.
Climate Inequity
A hard look at the inequities of the climate crisis
Poorer areas of England have less protection against development for green spaces, meaning already unequal access to nature is likely to be exacerbated.
Speaking truths
Efforts in activism and awareness
The Pope has issued a second edict on the climate, calling out the lack of action and encouraging the world to do more.
Human rights experts have warned against European crackdowns on climate protesters, with the UK leading the way in draconian rules and enforcement.
Greta Thunberg was arrested in London whilst protesting against a conference described as ‘the Oscars of oil’.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Pontevedra, Spain started limiting cars way back in the 90s, and over two decades later, the city’s businesses are booming and the population is growing.
The so-called ‘Green Revolution’ of the 1960s was famed for supposedly averting mass famine in India, but new evidence suggests that the story is not so clear.
Japan’s last remaining coal mine is now used to train coal workers from across the world, and is in many ways emblematic of Japan’s reluctance to let go of the fuel.
Climeworks is trying to be the go-to company to capture CO2 from the air and store it permanently underground, but it’s a long, slow journey to scale the technology.