FtF News #192 – 29th November 2023
The temperature continues to rise ahead of a fossil fuel-centric COP28
COP28 is due to start tomorrow, and as usual there’ve been a small rush of minor announcements and proclamations hoping to stake a line in the sand ahead of the negotiations. There’ve also been a series of revelations suggesting that concerns about fossil fuel influence this year are well justified, with the UAE seemingly playing fast and loose with their presidency.
It’s also notable that the US president is not attending this year. Having made their big climate announcement, the US is taking more of a back seat, perhaps realising that despite passing the IRA, becoming the world’s biggest gas exporter isn’t the best look. Meanwhile China, to the annoyance of many in the west, continues to quietly roll out renewables at an unprecedented pace.
It generally seems that China is not big on global agreements and making big showy targets, but when it says it’s going to do something, you’d best expect exactly that! Its domination of green technologies may cause much of the world pause, but ultimately, China saw this coming, and positioned itself accordingly. Europe and the US are now rushing to play catch-up because they waited far too long to act. Hopefully the resultant geopolitical pressure means a huge global roll-out of clean technologies, and not a retreat into posturing and nationalistic tendencies.
As always, if you spot any stories you’d like to share, you can submit them here.
Wild Weather
Mother nature’s reactions to the ever-warming world
Somalia has suffered its worst floods in a century, with at least 32 killed, and around 1.6m people affected by the flooding.
Extreme heat in Brazil is causing havoc – the heat index rose to nearly 60°C in some areas in the eighth heatwave of the year so far. The heat was so intense that a fan died of heat exhaustion at a Taylor Swift concert in Rio.
Drought and heat are also delaying the country’s soybean planting, which is likely to have a knock-on impact on corn, which given Brazil’s status as the world’s largest exporter of both crops, will have global consequences.
Canada’s wildfires are still burning, and have now destroyed 18.5 million hectares. With another drought-filled winter ahead, next year could be even worse.
Global average temperatures tipped briefly past 2°C above pre-industrial levels, just a couple of months after passing 1.5°C.
It’s Science!
The latest from in climate research and analysis
New analysis suggests that China’s rollout of renewable energy is so massive that the country’s emissions may peak this year, before entering a steady decline.
A new UN report on the run-up to COP28 predicts a 9% rise in emissions by 2030, down from the 11% predicted last year, but well short of the 45% decrease needed to keep warming to 1.5°C.
Another report by the UNEP found that based on current pledges, the world is on track for 2.9°C of warming, although even there, most countries’ climate plans do not match up to their net-zero goals.
Party Political Broadcast
Climate politics are a special creature indeed
The UAE is not looking good ahead of COP28 – leaked planning documents have shown that the country is planning to use COP28 to close oil and gas deals with multiple nations, and promote its own interests.
The state renewables firm Masdar is also far from the renewable energy giant it claims to be, with just 3.8GW of projects deployed, versus the 20GW it publicly describes.
Meanwhile Adnoc, the nation’s oil firm, has the largest ‘net-zero-busting’ expansion plans of any company in the world. Fossil fuel production sites in the country are also flaring near daily, despite having a commitment to zero routine flaring dating back nearly 20 years.
Neighbours Saudi Arabia are not much better – an undercover investigation has found that they have a vast global investment plan to hook poorer countries on its fossil fuel products.
China and the US have released a joint statement on their shared intent to boost clean energy deployment and increase global production of renewables.
The EU has provisionally agreed to ban exports of plastic waste to non-OECD countries from the middle of 2026, as part of wider negotiations on plastic waste.
Those same negotiations were thwarted by a number of oil-producing countries, including Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, who tried to block any attempts to reduce production of plastic.
California is to ban new gasoline-powered lawn mowers and other landscaping tools from next year due to the outsize emissions such equipment produces.
Money makes the world go around
The machinations of climate finance
Developed nations have finally hit their long-overdue target to supply $100bn in annual climate finance to developing nations as of last year. The sum was promised by 2020, but the news may still engender some good faith ahead of a COP with a lot of focus on climate finance.
Haha, Business!
Climate happenings in the corporate world
A new study has found that many companies that make net-zero pledges then directly lobby against those efforts, in what they call ‘net-zero greenwash’.
New York state is suing PepsiCo over plastic waste in the Buffalo River, in what is likely one of the first instances of a state suing a plastics producer and invoking public nuisance law.
The Future is Electric
EVs and all things electrification
Electric mopeds, bikes and tricycles now number 280m, and have already cut oil demand by around 1% – 4x the amount displaced by electric cars.
Electric delivery vehicles are starting to roll out en masse in Europe and China, though currently adoption is struggling in the US, thanks to a lack of options.
The proportion of new EVs that are SUVs continues to grow, raising concerns over their ever growing impact.
The UK’s ASA has banned two new adverts for the Toyota Hilux for encouraging driving in a manner that disregards impact on nature and the environment.
Whilst not directly EV related, Austin has become the largest city in the US to revoke parking minimums, in what hopefully might push back against urban sprawl and car-centric urban design.
Clean Green Energy Machine
Renewables versus coal – a look at the changing energy system
US oil and gas production is set to break a new record in 2023 despite their climate goals, with predictions putting oil output at more than double that of a decade ago.
Portugal recently ran on 100% renewables for 6 days in a row, as the country’s renewables roll-out continues apace.
Nigeria and Germany have agreed a $500m renewable energy deal, where investment in Nigerian renewables is exchanged for gas that would otherwise have been flared.
Breakthroughs
New inventions to inspire hope
A new study has found that combining modern sails with advanced routing to find the best winds could cut emissions of the shipping industry by up to a third.
A Caltech team is amongst a number of groups around the world working on beaming solar power down from space. There’s a lot of ‘if’s involved, but if it works and can be scaled, it could unlock clean power anywhere on the planet.
Climate Inequity
A hard look at the inequities of the climate crisis
The richest 1% now account for more carbon emissions than the poorest 66%, according to a new Oxfam report, and are responsible for at least 16% of all emissions.
With a more specific focus, emissions in the UK are majorly skewed towards the wealthiest, whilst UK climate levies tend to hit the poorest hardest.
The private jets of some 200 celebrities, CEOs, oligarchs and billionaires have racked up 11 years in the air since the start of 2022 – equivalent to 40,000 average UK citizens.
Whilst there’s a lot of pressure on developing nations to transition to renewables, a new study suggests that a more equitable approach would see developed countries cut emissions much faster to give more time for everyone else.
Speaking truths
Efforts in activism and awareness
The UN has formally warned the UK government over harsh sentences handed out to Just Stop Oil protesters, saying their punishment will stifle legitimate protest.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Private companies have found a new resource to exploit in Africa – water. In Senegal, many locals are finding foreign companies are destroying water reserves to grow crops for export, with precious little recourse.
On a similar theme, this more visual article tries to chart the ‘embedded’ water that is traded as part of the goods shipped around the world every year.
By now, we’ve all heard of carbon credits, as well as their less than salubrious reputation. However, a number of companies are now attempting to create ‘plastic credits’, where a company recycles plastic in one place to offset use elsewhere. It is hardly surprising to find that it already looks to be a massive sham.
Waste pickers play a key part in recycling in countries without formalised systems, and they are advocating to be included in upcoming global treaties on plastic waste, to avoid both destroying livelihoods and preserve vital knowledge on waste reclamation.