FtF News #196 – 7th February 2024
Election pressures, China’s massive new energy rollout, and the unlikely story of the Stanley cup
Hello again, and welcome back to Forge the Future! It’s only been a few weeks, but it feels like quite the while since I put one of these together. Fortunately there’s quite the spread of climate news, especially with elections due this year across the world. Leaders everywhere are scrambling to figure out which measures will appeal to their respective populaces, which unfortunately, with a strong lean towards right-wing, populist politics of late, means many (though by no means all) countries are pulling back from the strongest climate policies. Hopefully this period is just a blip in a longer trend towards more and greater climate action.
If you spot any stories you’d like to share, you can submit them here.
Wild Weather
Mother nature’s reactions to the ever-warming world
2023 was indeed the hottest year yet by a massive margin, falling some 1.48°C hotter than pre-industrial times, and 0.17°C above the previous hottest year, 2016.
Massive forest fires in Chile have killed 112 people so far in the country’s worst natural disaster since an earthquake in 2010.
A massive ‘atmospheric river’ event has caused a month’s worth of rain to fall in just a single day across much of California, with 500,000 losing power.
It’s Science!
The latest from in climate research and analysis
A preliminary study suggests that just the first two months of the conflict in Gaza caused more emissions than the annual footprint of more than 20 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. Military emissions are incredibly hard to measure, and few countries actually release data on their military activity, with under-reporting the norm.
A new study suggests that Greenland might be losing as much as 30m tonnes of ice per hour – 20% more than previously thought.
New research suggests that snowpack levels may decrease exponentially as the climate warms, posing huge risks to places that rely on snow-melt for water.
Eating a vegan or vegetarian diet could cut up to a third off food bills in the US, UK or Europe, though in lower income countries this is less true.
A new UN report predicts that extraction of raw materials will rise 60% by 2060, driven by demand for rare earth minerals and other clean technology inputs.
The emissions from bottom trawling could top 370m tonnes of CO2 per year – twice that from all the fuel burned by the world’s fishing vessels.
US emissions fell in 2023 for the first time since the pandemic, by around 1.9%, with coal burning falling to its lowest level in half a century.
People in the US throw about 76% of their recyclables into landfill, with recycling rates below 10% in a number of states.
Party Political Broadcast
Climate politics are a special creature indeed
The Biden administration has halted permitting for LNG export facilities after pressure from climate activists, slowing progress on expansion of US LNG exports. Despite this, US oil and gas production is predicted to reach new highs in 2024 and 2025.
John Kerry is to step down as Biden’s climate envoy in order to help with the President’s reelection campaign. With his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua also stepping down, the future of US-China climate relations looks uncertain.
Several major European countries, including Germany, France, the Netherlands and Spain, are urging the EU to push for a more ambitious 2040 climate target. However, with EU elections looming, a likely shift to the right could threaten any further climate action. The elections are the likely reason for the recent weakening of climate policies following massive protests by farmers, which has led to accusations of hypocrisy. Even so, EU emissions hit a 60 year low recently, with fossil fuel emissions dropping 8% last year to levels last seen in the 1960s.
Azerbaijan came under fire after unveiling a 28 person COP29 organising committee entirely made up of men, with an ex-oil industry president. The country did respond, adding another 12 women and 2 more men.
Rishi Sunak continues to tear up the UK’s climate policy, with a likely roll-back of a plan to fine boiler makers if they don’t manufacture more heat pumps. The move follows a tumultuous couple of weeks which saw Tory MP Chris Skidmore quit ahead of a vote on plans to issue more oil and gas licences, a vote which also drew public criticism from Alok Sharma, the ex-COP26 president. Despite this, the government granted 24 new oil and gas drilling licences, a move dubbed ‘grossly irresponsible’ by MPs and environmental campaigners. The UK’s environmental protections are also now massively weaker than when part of the EU, which not only impacts the environment but will hurt UK exports, as the EU is imposing tariffs due to the mismatch in policy. Much of this is driven by right wing papers, which this last year have reached record levels of opposition to climate action. Unsurprisingly, the CCC has warned the UK to act urgently to meet its international climate commitments.
Brazil’s new president seems to be keeping his word, with initial assessments suggesting deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by nearly 50% in 2023.
Money makes the world go around
The machinations of climate finance
China estimates that it will need a staggering ¥324tn (approximately 2.7x its 2022 GDP) to reach its climate goals, with most of the sum needed post 2030.
The EU’s latest projections suggest that the bloc will require around €1.4tn per year of investment into clean energy to meet net-zero power requirements.
Indonesia is reviving plans for a $10.6bn sea wall to save Jakarta from sinking yet further into the sea, as subsidence combines with sea level rise.
Haha, Business!
Climate happenings in the corporate world
Propane industry bodies in the US are now trying to rebrand the fuel as a clean alternative to avoid associations with emissions and keep their social acceptability.
Shell has decided to pull out of onshore oil entirely in Nigeria after nearly a century, following decades of pollution and grassroots lawsuits against its operations.
BP is now facing pressure from activist investors to ditch its clean energy pledges entirely, as the fossil fuel industry doubles down on their core business.
This long read into the revolving door relationship between Palau and The Nature Conservancy highlights many of the challenges facing small oceanic nations and the power of big NGOs in dictating government policy.
The Future is Electric
EVs and all things electrification
Voters in Paris have approved a change to triple on-street parking fees for large vehicles, hopefully dissuading SUVs from visiting the city centre.
We are now likely well past ‘peak internal-combustion engine vehicles’, with ICE sales falling every year since 2017, with numbers now down 23% from their peak.
The US has installed more than 1,000 new public fast charging stations in H2 2023 – a 16% increase – hopefully this will start to remove charging anxiety for many.
Australia is planning new vehicle fuel efficiency standards for 2025. Whilst only bringing the country in line with the US of fifty years ago, it’s still a big step forward.
Delivery companies talk up their electrification efforts a lot, but most of the big players are struggling, with the economics of moving to EVs proving hard to manage versus tight margins and a vast global fleet of vehicles to upgrade.
Clean Green Energy Machine
Renewables versus coal – a look at the changing energy system
The EU will need to double electricity production by 2050 to reach net zero, as the demands of electrified systems strain current production.
Nuclear power is likely to break global records in 2025, even as the UK’s newest plant has been delayed to 2031, with costs rising to £35bn. For some reason, this has prompted the UK government to call for the ‘biggest nuclear power expansion in 70 years’.
New renewable energy capacity grew by 50% last year, meaning that the world could still just about meet the COP28 target of tripling capacity by 2030.
Much of that was driven by China, which added 216.9GW of solar alone last year – more than the US has ever installed, and more than double what it installed in 2022. China likely accounted for 58% of solar and 60% of global wind installations last year.
It is perhaps unsurprising then that clean energy was the top driver of China’s economic growth in 2023, contributing a massive ¥11.4tn ($1.6tn) to the economy.
All this means that the world will add enough renewables in the next five years to power the equivalent of the US and Canada combined.
Breakthroughs
New inventions to inspire hope
A new collaboration between Vestas and ArcelorMittal will supply wind turbines with towers made of recycled steel to the Baltic Power wind farm, significantly cutting overall manufacturing emissions.
Climate Inequity
A hard look at the inequities of the climate crisis
Miami is just one of a number of cities being struck by ‘climate gentrification’, where poorer Black neighbourhoods are becoming desirable thanks to rising sea levels. The result is the original occupants being forced out in favour of newer, richer tenants.
Speaking truths
Efforts in activism and awareness
Seven youth plaintiffs are suing the Peruvian state over its failure to curb deforestation in the Amazon, and mitigate climate change.
This interview with an anti-LNG activist in the US South makes for interesting reading – seeing the journey from refinery worker to LNG activist as he saw the impact that such facilities had on the communities they are sited within.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
The EU’s latest climate plans call for huge amounts of carbon capture. This look at the Norwegian Longship project gives an idea of the cost, scale and complexity of scaling carbon capture and storage to useful levels.
Amidst the rush for battery materials, the story of those on the ground often gets forgotten – this exploration of artisanal cobalt mining in the DRC is eye-opening.
The cruise industry talks up a storm over new, greener ships, but with the impact of cruises is likely even higher than flights and demand skyrocketing, the industry has a serious climate reckoning ahead.
Stanley’s reusable cups became a massive viral hit, but with the vessels turning into collectors items, how much sustainability benefit can the company really claim?
Some US cities are starting to enact deconstruction ordinances, stipulating that old buildings must be taken apart and reused. However, as always, the devil’s in the details.
Mass timber is often claimed as the sustainable future of the building industry, but quantifying how much carbon is actually saved turns out to be a tricky business.
For something a little different, Grist have announced the winners of their 2200 Climate Fiction for Future Ancestors short story competition – these are always worth a read to imagine alternative climate-centric futures!