FtF News #199 – 20th March 2024

El Niño peaks with coral bleaching looking likely, the true climate impact of a Trump win, and the gender inequity of climate events

I’ve been thinking a lot recently about the role of corporate power in the climate movement – especially when it comes to swaying politics, particularly in the US, but also around the world. Given the increasing focus on quarterly results over long term benefits, where companies are prioritising share buy-backs and dividends even over their own future success, I do find myself wondering whether we as a society have leaned too hard into the market driven, corporate-centric approach to solving climate change. Whilst I do think it’s too late to drop the market system entirely, I do worry that an over-reliance on it puts us too much at the whim of CEOs who are ultimately responsible to their shareholders rather than the planet. Maybe the degrowth-ers are onto something?

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Wild Weather

Mother nature’s reactions to the ever-warming world

• February was the ninth month in a row of record heat, reaching 1.77°C above pre-industrial levels, with heat records tumbling globally as El Niño peaks, and sea surface temperatures continuing their alarmingly high trend with no sign of slowing.

• Those sky-high sea temperatures are looking likely to precipitate a fourth mass coral bleaching event, which could impact corals across the southern hemisphere.

• Such a bleaching would be the fifth major bleaching event in 8 years for the Great Barrier Reef.

• Much of Southern Africa has suffered the driest February since records began, killing crops and massively impacting hydro power output. The drought is affecting large parts of Zambia, Botswana and Zimbabwe.

• At least 35 people have been killed by a freak snow and rain event in NW Pakistan, with some of the areas hit not having seen snow in 25-30 years.

• Texan wildfires have led to the state recording its second-highest wildfire emissions in two decades for January and February, emitting around 3.4m tonnes of CO2.

It’s Science!

The latest from in climate research and analysis

• New research has found that air pollution levels have significantly improved in Europe in the last 20 years, although 98% of Europeans still live in areas exceeding the WHO’s recommended levels.

• In a similar vein, a new report from IQAir has found that the countries with the worst air pollution globally are in the Middle East, Africa and Central and Southern Asia (though it is worth noting that much of sub-Saharan Africa still lacks enough data to be quantified).

• A new report on AI casts doubt on the technology’s ability to assist in tackling the crisis, pointing to its ever-growing energy demands and role in the rapid generation of climate disinformation.

• US methane leaks from oil and gas are likely much worse than previously estimated by the EPA, according to data gathered from aerial surveys.

• The European Environment Agency has performed its first climate risk assessment, finding that the bloc is unprepared for the rapidly growing climate risks it faces.

• A report has found that just 17% of the world’s largest companies have a credible plan to reduce corporate flying emissions, with the 25 largest companies responsible for a third of all analysed emissions.

Party Political Broadcast

Climate politics are a special creature indeed

• Analysis by Carbon Brief suggests that a Trump victory in this year’s US election could lead to an additional 4 billion tonnes of emissions by 2030 – equivalent to the annual emissions of the world’s 140 lowest-emitting countries.

• Analysts have been dismayed by the latest UK budget, which failed to capitalise on the massive growth in the country’s green sector, and froze fuel tax for the 14th year in a row whilst allowing train fares to grow still further.

• New York’s Attorney General is suing JBS USA, accusing the world’s largest meat-packing company of fraud over its claims to be net-zero by 2040.

Money makes the world go around

The machinations of climate finance

• A UN official has estimated that Africa will be $2.5tn short of the finance needed to cope with climate change by 2030 – a worrying statistic indeed given that climate is already costing African economies around 5% of their GDP annually.

• The US SEC has finally unveiled a much-hyped climate disclosure rule, but after industry pushback, the resulting legislation doesn’t touch on scope 3 emissions, and has been decried as far too weak.

Haha, Business!

Climate happenings in the corporate world

• In a now-unsurprising revelation, new evidence has shown that the oil industry actively sought to block the adoption of clean tech for more than half a century, even as it benefited from significant government subsidies itself.

• Shell has rolled back or cancelled several key emissions targets as it refocuses on oil and gas, planning to expand its LNG business by up to 30% by 2030.

• Exxon CEO Darren Woods received massive backlash after saying that lack of public demand for climate action is responsible for the world’s failure to act.

The Future is Electric

EVs and all things electrification

• China’s support of clean fuels for trucking is paying off, with electric and fuel-cell medium- and heavy-duty trucks making up 10% of new sales, with light-duty at 16%. This suggests that the clean trucking transition may not be as far off as many have thought.

• A new study has found that (perhaps unsurprisingly) simply replacing existing cars with EVs does little to tackle the underlying harms of a car-centric society.

Clean Green Energy Machine

Renewables versus coal – a look at the changing energy system

• Last year saw US solar become a majority of new energy capacity added to the grid – the first time this has happened for a renewable energy source since the hydroelectric boom in WWII.

• A major renewables developer has made a pledge to spend £10bn on massive new battery storage facilities in the UK in a much-needed boost to grid stability.

• After the last UK offshore wind auction attracted zero bids, the UK government is to offer £800m in support for the next round, as its target of 50GW by 2030 looks increasingly out of reach.

• Electricity prices in Spain have dropped to almost zero as solar and wind power spiked, with day-ahead prices remaining below €10/MWh for the last week.

Breakthroughs

New inventions to inspire hope

• Swancor Holding is one of a few companies looking at new resins that could allow for much easier recycling of wind turbine blades, the disposal of which is a growing problem.

• Rondo is combining clay bricks with electric heating coils to generate much-needed high temperature industrial heat without fossil fuels.

• Companies are finally starting to make a dent in the snowmobile market, replacing existing noisy and polluting machines with quiet but powerful electric variants.

Climate Inequity

A hard look at the inequities of the climate crisis

• New UN research has found that women in rural areas are harder hit financially by climate change than men, and this gap is only likely to widen further.

• Youth activists campaigning for climate action and human rights need better protection, as currently they are often denied even the protections offered to older activists.

Long Reads

Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics

• Much of the current approach to tackling climate change relies on decoupling economic growth from emissions, but whilst progress has been made on this front, a number of economists are now arguing that it will not happen nearly fast enough to prevent catastrophic warming. Instead, they argue for degrowth economics, focusing (particularly in wealthier countries) on improving quality of life, whilst reducing or eliminating overall GDP growth.