FtF News #209 – 11th August 2024
China to set fixed emissions goals, carbon offsets are further discredited, and the problems of designer eco-cities
I recently read this excellent look back at Octavia Butler’s rather prescient novel, Parable of the Sower. It’s set in 2024, and even though it was written over 30 years ago, it captures much of the chaos and uncertainty of climate change eerily well.
It got me thinking again about the power of story-telling – both in highlighting the dangers of not tackling the climate and those who would oppose action on it, but also in inspiring hope. I recently finished Cory Doctorow’s latest novel, The Lost Cause, which tells the story of young people taking action to build a better future in the face of climate chaos and pushback from aggressive right-wing movements (something that feels very close to home this week in the UK). I think there’s a huge role for more stories that centre climate change and narratives that show the kinds of worlds we can and should build as we tackle this crisis.
If you spot any stories you’d like to share, you can submit them here.
Wild Weather
Mother nature’s reactions to the ever-warming world
Much of Europe has seen record temperatures, with Barcelona reaching 40°C, London 32°C, and Paris 37°C. The cause was a heat dome over the region, which a rapid attribution study has already linked to climate change.
The hot weather is one of several ordeals for athletes at the Paris Olympics, with triathlon events in the Seine postponed after heavy rain made the river unsafe to swim in.
Wildfire conditions have spread across much of western North America, including Canada, Oregon and California, where the Park Fire has rapidly grown to be the fourth largest fire in the state’s history.
The unprecedented wildfires that swept Brazil’s Pantanal wetland in June were made 4-5x more likely and 40% more intense by climate change.
More than 120 people have died from heatstroke in July in Tokyo after temperatures hit record highs, more than 2°C above the 30 year average.
Antarctica is suffering a heatwave that has seen temperatures 10°C above average for the past month, with some days reaching 28°C above normal.
A landslide in Kerala, India caused by heavy rain has killed 167 people, with 200 injured, and 191 still missing.
Heavy rain and flooding in Sudan has impacted thousands, including many internal migrants who were already in a vulnerable position.
It’s Science!
The latest from in climate research and analysis
Global methane emissions are rising at the fastest rate in decades, thanks to oil and gas production, livestock, as well as climate change-induced natural emissions.
New research suggests that every 0.1°C of temperature overshoot above 1.5°C of warming will increase the risk of crossing key tipping points, even if the overshoot is temporary.
According to recent analysis, China’s emissions fell 1% in Q2 of 2024, the first quarterly drop since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Research suggests that wider adoption of heat pumps could reduce China’s building and light industry emissions by up to 75%.
Analysis has found that meeting UK climate targets through to 2037 would deliver £164bn in benefits just in six cities, with the majority being social benefits.
The UK’s rivers and groundwater is polluted by more than 500 chemicals, with more than half toxic to aquatic life in some way.
Party Political Broadcast
Climate politics are a special creature indeed
Climate groups in the US are (mostly) celebrating Kamala Harris’ pick of Tim Walz, Minnesota’s governor, as her vice presidential nominee. Walz has pushed forward a climate first agenda in his home state, although some have noted he failed to block the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline.
Harris also secured the backing of the Green New Deal Network, a coalition of progressive youth and environmental justice groups which refused to endorse Biden.
Analysis has found that 123 seats in the US Congress are occupied by climate change deniers – nearly a quarter – and those officials have received $52m in lifetime campaign donations from the fossil fuel industry.
The EU is likely to push China to contribute to climate aid at COP29, according to the bloc’s draft negotiating position.
Speaking of China, the country has announced that for its 15th five-year plan, starting in 2026, it will set hard emissions goals for the first time, rather than emissions intensity targets.
The International Seabed Authority has just elected Leticia Carvalho, a Brazilian oceanographer, as its next secretary general, in what is hoped will be a slowing of pushes to commercialise and mine the seabed for metals.
Money makes the world go around
The machinations of climate finance
A new report from the Rockefeller Foundation highlights that massive financial assistance will be needed to help the poorest countries in the world create decarbonised power generation, if they are to prosper without becoming massive sources of emissions.
The UK’s rail operator will have to spend £2.8bn over five years to increase resilience against extreme weather as a result of climate change.
Haha, Business!
Climate happenings in the corporate world
The livestock industry has been linked to a major campaign to ban or discredit the upcoming field of cultivated meat, which would offer (in theory) a more sustainable alternative to animal agriculture.
In a blow to the voluntary carbon credit market, SBTi has a major report which concluded that they are largely ineffective. Further driving this home, certification body ICVCM decided not to endorse renewable energy carbon credits, which are around 32% of the current voluntary market.
BP is to issue dividends worth $7bn this year, as it announced nearly $3bn in quarterly profits.
Glencore has decided against splitting off its coal business after shareholders decided profits were more important than pollution.
Drax power plant was the UK’s largest emitter in 2023, but has claimed £22bn in subsidies, despite emitting 4x as much as the UK’s last remaining coal power plant.
Air New Zealand has abandoned its 2030 emissions goal, saying that it is too hard to get more efficient aircraft and cleaner fuels. SAFs are still too expensive, and thanks to Boeing’s safety issues, Airbus has orders backed up to 2030.
The Future is Electric
EVs and all things electrification
EVs and hybrids have surpassed 50% of car sales in China for the first time – a major milestone for the world’s largest car market.
Uber has announced a partnership with BYD to put 100,000 EVs on the ride-hailing platform, in a deal that notably excludes the US entirely.
Clean Green Energy Machine
Renewables versus coal – a look at the changing energy system
One of the most comprehensive surveys yet completed of US oil and gas methane emissions has found that levels are 8x higher than industry targets.
The UK government has announced a record £1.5bn in funding for its next renewable energy auction, after last year’s auction failed to attract bids.
Wind and solar produced 30% of the EU’s electricity for the first half of 2024, more than fossil fuels for the first time.
Breakthroughs
New inventions to inspire hope
Methane-detecting satellites are proving a valuable route to having greater insight on methane emissions worldwide.
Some solar companies are turning to robotics to help construct solar farms, though there is a delicate balance between renewables rollout and maintaining jobs.
A startup has produced a device that can pull water from the air with just sunlight, which promises to deliver clean water anywhere on the planet.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
California billionaires have been trying to buy up areas of the state to build a new eco-city, but such model settlements have been tried many times before, and none have succeeded, especially on a for-profit basis.