FtF News #61 - July 29th
Apple’s climate aspirations, the end of the polar bear, and climate immigration
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your guide to all things going on in the climate world this week.
Thanks to everyone who reached out after last week’s edition and gave me feedback and suggestions - it’s all greatly appreciated! I’m going to stick with the same format for this week, but may still mix it up in the future, depending on what the news brings each week. As always, if you’ve got any thoughts or feedback, please do let me know at oli@forgethefuture.com.
I’m also working on the first deep dive, which will be looking at how we clean up aviation, and how the aviation industry may adapt to the changing climate. As with so many climate areas, it ends up intersecting many different areas, from politics to technology to business structures, so hopefully I can do it justice!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
A new study out this week has helped to bring new light to the potential range of warming we face in the future. The authors helpfully published an explainer in Carbon Brief of the real-world implications of their work, which focuses on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) - a measure of how much the world might warm for a doubling of CO2.
This alone is an immensely hard problem, which is why predictions of warming often feature such a wide range of possible temperatures. This latest study helps narrow the bounds, which is both good and bad news - it lowers the likelihood that we will see truly extreme warming beyond 4.5°C, but also rules out much lower climate sensitivity, where the planet might only warm 1.5°C even with a large increase in CO2.
Another paper has found that the days of the polar bear are sadly numbered, as the changing conditions in the Arctic mean that the animals will face ever increasing fasting seasons. The iconic bear, long a symbol of the region, is likely to be gone entirely by 2100 bar a few isolated sub-populations.
North Atlantic Right Whales have been upgraded to ‘critically endangered’, which it is hoped might give a boost to measures to protect them. There are fewer than 250 mature individuals left, and they face constant threat from fishing fleets, which frequently strike or ensnare them.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Wider scope
Apple announced a sweeping climate plan this week, with the headline goal of reducing its climate impact to net zero by 2030. To do this, it is working with suppliers to switch to renewable energy, as well as changing packaging, improving recycling of used products and more. The plan looks to be one of the more comprehensive efforts, although the company still lags on allowing repairs from third parties, and it really needs to move away from policies of planned obsolescence in its primary product lines if it wants to cut down on impact.
On the subject of scope 3 emissions, a number of corporations have launched a new forum, the Transform to Net Zero Initiative, to speed up the transition to net zero. The new body includes Maersk, Microsoft, Starbucks, Nike, and more, and aims to encourage businesses worldwide to adopt science-based targets that cover their scope 3 emissions. The names on the list are encouraging, and include a number of companies like Unilever and Microsoft that have already made substantial pledges. It remains to be seen, however, if this new pledge is just hot air.
Flying clean
The UK government has made a number of green funding announcements this week, including £400m funding towards a ‘FlyZero’ initiative. The UK government, despite its commitment to net zero by 2050, has so far struggled to unveil meaningful policies to support the goal. There’s a pressing need for more work on clean aviation, but it’s currently unclear if this new funding is a serious commitment to zero emissions aviation or a publicity stunt.
The industry is certainly struggling at the moment, despite vast bailouts, and just this week British Airways announced that it will be retiring its entire fleet of 747 jumbo jets four years early. It was the world’s largest operator of the aircraft, but they’re no longer economically viable. This follows the end of Airbus’ A380 production last year - the era of truly gigantic jet airliners may be coming to an end, although the aviation industry as a whole (COVID-19 aside) shows no sign of slowing.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Immigration Impasse
The New York Times published an amazing article this week in partnership with ProPublica on climate migration. It is by no means an easy read, but it highlights the real complexities of immigration, particularly induced by climate change. As in many other areas, the climate exacerbates existing problems and magnifies their impacts, and there’s no one simple solution. What seems clear though, is that climate immigration will only become more severe, and the burden is largely being borne by those countries with the least capacity to adapt.
Water woes
India is home to an enormous population, but severely lacks access to water, and is likely to bear the brunt of much of the coming warming of the planet. The country is facing a struggle to wean farmers away from traditional crops such as rice and wheat, which require large amounts of water, but due to government subsidies and guaranteed purchases, offer financial stability in an otherwise uncertain environment.
Oh America...
SoCalGas, the largest gas utility in the US, has been pulled up by a watchdog on charges that it has been using public money to fund campaigns against clean energy regulations across California. The utility claims the campaigns were funded from investor funds rather than ratepayer bills, but refuses to handover accounts that would prove the matter one way or the other.
The Trump administration has overturned an Obama-era veto on a planned gold and copper mine in Alaska which, if opened, would be the largest in North America. Local activists are outraged by the proposal, which has been fought over for much of the past two decades. Given the timing, there is still a significant chance that this latest ruling could be vetoed once again should Joe Biden ascend to the presidency later this year.
That’s all for this week - I’m trying to keep things a little more concise for once! As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any thoughts or feedback, do let me know!
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli