FtF News #62 - 5th August 2020
The turning point for coal, heat inequality...oh, and the Amazon’s on fire again
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate happenings.
Much of Europe seems to be gradually emerging from various states of lockdown, and for many, things are starting to head back to some form of normality, albeit with more facemasks and hand sanitiser. The full effects of the pandemic on society I suspect will not become clear for years to come, and I feel like the lasting effects will not be those we expect. The human cost has been massive, but although things may start to feel normal once again, the world has undoubtedly been shifted. Time will tell as to what direction it has moved, and we can only hope it’s for the better.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
I guess it was only a matter of time before Brazil was in the news for environmental destruction. The number of fires in the Brazilian Amazon during July was up 28% versus last year, despite a ban on fires put in part way through the month. The Pantanal, the world’s largest wetland, is also suffering from the worst fires in 22 years, with more than double the number from this time last year. The fire season doesn’t normally peak there until September, but unusually dry conditions have caused fires to balloon out of control more easily.
Carbon Brief’s second ‘State of the Climate’ report for 2020 was released this week, and it makes for grim reading. 2020 is currently on track to be either the warmest or second warmest year on record. This is despite the previous record year, 2016, having a very strong El Niño effect which exacerbated the warming - something that is not the case this year.
Massive floods continue to inundate Bangladesh, with around a quarter of the entire country flooded. Millions have lost everything, and this is just part of a wider cycle of increased storms and extreme weather that is continuing to pummel the low-lying country. Once again, the climate crisis has the largest impacts on those who have contributed the least to it.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
The beginning of the end for coal?
The energy landscape has shifted significantly this year as a result of the coronavirus outbreak and resulting fallout. This week saw the announcement that global coal-fired power capacity dropped for the first time ever over the first half of 2020, despite a huge boost in capacity from China. The drop was small - around 0.1% of global capacity - but signals a shift in the energy landscape. Bangladesh is reportedly considering scrapping 90% of its planned coal power plants, and Vietnam is also reconsidering planned projects, as the economic outlook for coal shifts significantly. It is coming as a shock to some - Poland is struggling to balance the ever worsening economics of coal against the large numbers of jobs the industry supports.
On the clean energy front, 50% of electricity produced in Germany was green over the first half of this year, despite low growth in onshore wind in the country. Germany is struggling to push through onshore wind projects against backlash from residents, and is considering financial incentives, as it is currently way behind on progress towards 2030 wind capacity targets. Offshore wind is proving much more of a success in Europe, with some projects potentially looking at ‘negative subsidies’ - where they will end up returning money to the government rather than the other way around.
Charging ahead
GM signed a deal with EV charging operator EVgo to build a network of 2,750 chargers across the US. This could potentially cut through some of the inevitable chicken-and-egg problem - you can’t have EVs without chargers, and there’s no point building chargers if there aren’t EVs to use them. Another issue that is still being worked out is the plethora of charging standards across the globe - there are at least 8 or 9 major standards, and this adds another potential barrier to adoption, at least until one takes a clear lead.
DPD are to run a pilot of the ‘world’s first’ purpose-built fully-electric 16 ton delivery truck in London. The vehicle is specifically designed for city driving, and with DPD rapidly working to electrify their fleet, this’ll be one to watch. Indeed, DPD have expressed frustration at the lack of commercial EVs available - something I suspect will change in the next few years as more and more delivery firms look for green options.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
The impact of income
A major paper released by the Climate Impact Lab dives deep into the impacts of heat across the globe as the planet warms. Particularly, they focused on how differing incomes would affect heat-based mortality rates. Unsurprisingly, those who are less well off will be hit far harder than those with higher incomes, to a shocking degree. This points to a balance that we need to strike in tackling the climate crisis - moving to a cleaner world must not come at the expense of economic growth for the poorest in the world, as wealth in itself can help save people.
Unfortunately, money tends to flow to the richest in society, leaving the poorest hit time and again. The New York Times covered the difficulties Houston is facing trying to adapt flood rules to push money towards those who would have the hardest time rebuilding. For years, the money has been allocated to the most valuable property, leaving vulnerable communities with no way to rebuild. This is reminiscent of many decisions made in the US and around the world, where consequences are dismissed as those affected are under-represented groups who can’t easily fight back - whether against toxic coal ash ponds or ‘Superfund’ sites, many of which are increasingly at risk of flooding.
The curse of ‘both-sides-ism’
A study out of Brown University found that the US media has been consistently biased in its coverage of climate change. Over the past 30 years, three of the most influential news sources gave significantly more coverage to stories against climate action than those supporting it. They also found that the least covered stories came from groups with expertise in science and technology.
That’s it for this week, as always, thank you for reading! The new style hopefully lends itself to providing more context to the stories I touch upon, but I’m conscious as always of the mounting pile of stories left on the cutting room floor. What do you think? Did I miss something crucial? Do you prefer my more verbose offerings of late, or did you enjoy my more concise approach in the past? Let me know! I always appreciate feedback.
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli