Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Something that readers occasionally ask for is tips on how to personally take action on the items that come up each week. So many of the moving pieces of the climate crisis play out at corporate or governmental levels that I’m often not sure what to suggest. However, I’m a fan of the theory of balancing individual actions with bigger systemic change (see the excellent Minimal Viable Planet for a better explanation of this!). With that in mind, I thought I’d share this quiz from the NYT on the climate impact of a few every-day actions as a possible conversation starter :)
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
New research released this week puts the melting rate of the world’s ice sheets in line with the worst-case scenarios predicted by climate scientists. Sea levels are now rising 4mm a year, and the rises are in danger of outpacing existing climate models, potentially leaving many unprepared for the consequences. Another study has looked at how ice levels in the Bering Sea correspond with CO2 levels. They found that not only have recent winters reduced ice coverage to levels not seen in 5,500 years, but the sea ice appears to have a 100 year lag with respect to CO2. In other words, we may have already locked in an ice-free future for the Bering Sea. A final ice related study used satellite imagery to conduct the first major global assessment of glacial lakes, finding that they have increased in size by 50% in the last 30 years - yet another indication of our rapidly warming world.
A recent look at aviation emissions suggests that the non-CO2 effects of flying are far larger than previously thought, potentially accounting for ⅔ of the impacts. Flying not only releases CO2 high into the atmosphere, but contrails and other aircraft-induced cloud effects contribute to ‘radiative forcing’ - trapping more heat in the atmosphere. These effects have not been studied thoroughly, so whilst some effect is clear, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to the full damage. I’m in the process of wrapping up a deep dive on clean aviation that dives further into the aviation industry, and how aviation might be decarbonised - hopefully I’ll get that out to you in the next week or two.
On the topic of transport, the latest emissions data puts SUVs as the second largest contributor to the rise in global emissions in the last decade. Combined, SUVs output around 700 megatons of CO2 per year, which is around the same as the emissions of the UK and the Netherlands put together!
August has been confirmed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service as the fourth-warmest on record, with above average temperatures in the US and Europe balanced out by a cooler month in the Southern Hemisphere. Nevertheless, 2020 is still on track to be either the second warmest or warmest year ever. Denver is potentially going to break weather records for both heat and cold this week, with a 38°C heatwave last weekend changing to what could be 6 inches of snowfall on Tuesday.
In Africa, floods continue to take a heavy toll, with Sudan declaring a 3 month state of emergency over continuing floods. More than half a million people have been affected by floods in the country, with 99 killed. The rate of flooding has surpassed records from 1988 and 1946, and continues to rise. Nigeria lost over 25% of its national rice output in recent floods in the state of Kebbi, with at least 450,000 hectares of fields destroyed. Another five states have reported flood damage, and nearly 50 people have died in flooding in the country so far this year.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Green Goals
Germany has just raised its first ever green debt - €6.5bn of it. Reportedly, interest was extremely strong, and it will likely precipitate similar offerings from other European countries. Germany is looking to transfer its status as a leader in conventional debt into the green debt market, an area it has not previously taken part in. This is part of a wider push by the EU as a whole towards using green bonds as part of the bloc’s €750bn recovery fund, to tie money to environmental projects.
Germany is also pushing for more intermediate emissions goals for the EU as politicians draft a law to make carbon neutrality by 2050 a binding resolution. Currently, the EU has a commitment to reduce emissions by 40% by 2030 from 1990, but nothing further. This would place intermediate targets for 2040 as well, locking in a more concrete roadmap rather than just an endpoint. There is also a push to increase the 2030 goal to a 55% reduction as part of the same proposal.
Cleaning up Soap
Unilever has announced that it is spending €1bn to help its suppliers eliminate the use of fossil fuels in its cleaning products by 2030. It has been technically possible for some time, but the alternatives have been expensive, and there was not enough demand to lower prices through economies of scale - something that this announcement could see change.
Unilever has been pushing fairly hard on the environmental front (for a massive multi-national corporation, at least!), but large corporations often face supply chain issues - many of the products they sell are created by a myriad of other upstream companies. This both complicates cleaning up and gives companies a convenient get-out clause. However, with this announcement, and others (like Apple’s recent green plan), some of the biggest consumer companies are acknowledging this and working to tackle the issue. It’s early days, of course, and announcements are not the same as action, but hopefully this proves a precedent that others will follow.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Insuring the Uninsurable
Each year, when California burns, insurance raises its head. Insurance is a complex topic that I won’t claim to understand fully, but in the case of wildfires, the situation is getting complicated. Homeowners want insurance against fires and other calamities so that, should the worst happen, they can at least claim something to rebuild their lives.
However, with the breadth of fires (and thus claims) in recent years, insurers are running out of money. They face a choice: raise premiums (which states can block), or refuse to insure the most fire-prone areas. California enacted a one-off ban on such refusals last year, but that is expiring, and with fires rolling through the state once again, many homeowners are unable to obtain insurance at all.
Whilst currently this is mostly limited to California, given the trend towards more severe weather and disasters, what happens here could be a test case for similar situations across the US and elsewhere. In flood-prone regions, the US is finally moving towards a policy of managed retreat, rather than stubbornly rebuilding every time, though it remains to be seen whether this would work in California, where fire-prone areas are some of the few where housing is affordable.
Useless Utilities
A study looking at over 3000 utility companies worldwide has found that only around 14% of them have prioritised growth in renewable energy over gas or coal. 12% had their highest growth in those fuels, and indeed half of those growing renewables are also increasing fossil fuel capacity. Most utilities are passive, just managing existing capacity. What does this mean? The growth in renewables, on the utility front, is in the hands of relatively few players, and that a lot of fossil fuel capacity is locked in for some time to come. To effectively decarbonise, these trends will need to change, and fast.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli