FtF News #70 - 30th September 2020
China’s plan to be carbon neutral, and EVs for everyone (in California)
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
As usual, it’s been a heady week in the news - with Trump’s taxes (or lack thereof) dominating the airwaves, it might have been easy to miss the huge win that is China’s declaration of a 2060 carbon neutrality target. Whilst I’m sure some will call for more ambition still, it moves the needle considerably, and more importantly gives us hope that in these strange and trying times, not all is lost.
On a different note, I’m sure you noticed part one of my deep dive into the environmental impact of aviation drop into your inboxes on Sunday. If you’re interested in the complexities of flying, then please do give it a read. And if you’ve any thoughts or feedback, I’d love to hear them, as always! Part 2 will be coming to you this weekend (hopefully!), and exploring what the future of aviation may look like.
Alongside the release of this I’m re-enabling paid subscriptions to this newsletter. I have no intention of paywalling any articles going forward - I’ve always intended this content to be open to anyone and everyone - but if you feel like supporting my work, I’d be immensely grateful!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Just when the Atlantic storm season couldn’t get any more odd, there are now ‘zombie’ storms. Hurricane Paulette struck Bermuda, then lost strength (and named storm status). However, its remains drifted out into the ocean, where they regained strength and are now classified as a tropical storm once again. Whilst rare, this isn’t the first time this has happened - Hurricane Ivan did a similar thing back in 2004.
Whilst fires are continuing to wreak havoc in California, with a heatwave over the weekend, rain has brought some relief to Oregon. However, with that comes a new risk - landslides. Experts are worried that the rain could sweep dead trees and mud down into populated areas from the regions decimated by fire in recent weeks.
More than 450 long-finned pilot whales became stranded in Tasmania. Rescuers managed to save around 50, but at least 380 have died in the worst mass stranding in Australia’s history. Whilst tragic, it’s thought to be a natural event - the species is particularly vulnerable to mass strandings as they travel as large groups very close together.
After months of unprecedented clear skies due to lockdowns, India could see a return to smog in the coming weeks. This time of year is well known in the country for crop burning, which is one of the primary culprits behind seasonal smog in many major cities. The fires are illegal, but satellite images have already shown fire and smoke in northern Punjab.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Chinese environmental ambition
The biggest climate news of the week by far was China’s announcement that it will be targeting carbon neutrality by 2060 - a huge announcement for the world’s largest emitter. The country is aiming to reach peak emissions by 2030, before reaching carbon neutrality by or before 2060. It shows an ambition by China to become a leader in environmental issues, and step into the vacuum left by the US’ total absence. As always, Carbon Brief have thoroughly analysed the implications of the announcement - it could cut global warming by 0.25°C, whilst simultaneously boosting China’s GDP. There is also likely to be a ‘positive spillover’ effect worldwide, as the massive domestic scaling of renewable energy infrastructure will reduce prices for renewables globally.
At the weekend, one of China’s top climate research institutes laid out a possible roadmap for the country to hit its new target. It would see an enormous ramp up in renewable and nuclear energy, completely removing coal power. This could well be the end of the many coal plants in the pipeline currently, as if this plan comes to fruition, coal will be phased out before the plants have paid back the cost of construction. The roadmap sees a peak in emissions between 2025 and 2030, and by 2060 a ~350% increase in wind power, 380% increase in nuclear, and nearly 6-fold increase in solar energy. The cost? A mere $15tn, spread across the next 30 years.
California’s clean cars
California’s Governor signed an executive order this week phasing out sales of gasoline-powered cars by 2035. The California Air Resources Board will develop regulations to ensure every new passenger car and truck sold in the state is electric or zero emissions by 2035, though medium- and heavy-duty vehicles will have until 2045 to make a similar transition. Given the leading role California plays amongst environmentally-minded states, it’s likely that this will, directly or indirectly drive EV adoption in other parts of the US (though the regulations don’t prevent Californians from buying gasoline cars from other states). It also pits the state once again against the Trump administration, doubling down on its earlier emissions wins.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Some things never change…
An investigation by Unearthed and the Huffington Post has found that BP and Shell, despite their recent environmental leanings, are still members of anti-climate lobbying groups in both the US and Australia. When questioned about their membership of these organisations, they claimed they were either trying to reform from the inside, or were planning to review their membership going forward. Neither has disclosed the full list of such organisations that they are members of. Once again, whilst some big oil companies are making commendable moves in the right direction, old habits die hard.
In similar news, executives at the controversial Pebble Mine project in Alaska were recorded saying the project could be nine times larger than they’ve publicly admitted. The project has struggled to gain approval, with many in the local community saying that the mine will decimate local salmon populations on which their livelihoods depend. The project plans have been scaled back, but it appears the executives are banking on momentum to expand the mine if approval is granted.
Remember when Jeff Bezos launched his $10bn climate fund seven months back? It was a rare moment where the world’s richest man actually seemed to show some awareness outside of building his fortune ever larger. However, despite claiming that grants from the fund would start this summer, none have yet been issued, and there’s been no information suggesting that will change. Mr Bezos has made $73bn during the pandemic this year, and is now worth $184bn (probably more by the time this newsletter reaches you) - a sum so vast, it is near impossible for us to grasp, let alone for one man to use.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
It is still possible to slow the rate of climate change, but the weather events this year have driven home that climate change is very much happening now. The New York Times spoke to a selection of climate science experts to get their opinions on what happens next. One of the key takeaways: we still need to act, and more urgently than ever - things can get a lot worse.
With Europe pushing whole-heartedly into green hydrogen, Bloomberg looked at the how and why - why is hydrogen the fuel of choice for a green economy, and what needs to happen for it to become competitive? For those in search of more information, this Twitter thread is also insightful as to why we’re unlikely to see hydrogen shipped across the world as oil is today.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, and see you next week,
Oli