FtF News #76 - 11th November 2020
A Biden win in the US, and the continuing rise of renewables
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
The big news this week, climate or otherwise, is that Biden has won the US election, after one of the most fraught and highest stakes contests in recent memory. Even in the few days since the announcement, the tone has changed, and an air of competency has started to return. He may not be the radical some climate activists wanted (Ezra Klein has a great deep dive into Biden’s outlook and thinking if you can spare the time), but he’s the president the US needs right now - he’s competent, safe and concerned about the right topics - managing the pandemic, tackling the climate crisis, and pushing for justice and equality.
The start of my personal climate journey was around 2016 - a year which saw Trump elected, and here in the UK, the Brexit referendum. The times since have seen many positive notes, but also a strong current of frustration. The US result indicates that maybe, the world is shifting in a more hopeful direction.
Particularly in the UK, there’s a long way still to go - we have our own Trump clone (in Biden’s words, no less), and are heading towards a disastrous exit from the EU at the end of this year. However, with COP26 on the horizon, there’s hope that the UK might turn things around, and show that it is still capable of setting a strong example, especially with more capable hands at the wheel across the Atlantic.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Hurricane Eta has wreaked destruction in Central America, with widespread flooding and landslides in Nicaragua. The storm hit as a Category 4 Hurricane, with sustained winds of 140mph, and caused havoc, with at least 50 killed. It has now swept out across the Gulf and struck the Florida Keys, though as a much weaker tropical storm, hopefully the damage will be minimal.
The Pacific storm season continues apace. Storm Atsani fortunately missed the Philippines, which are still recovering from Goni, and fizzled out in the South China Sea. Now, the region is bracing for Etau, the next storm in line, which is forecast to strike Vietnam late on Tuesday - a country still recovering from major mudslides from storm Molave. Whilst the storm season this year in the Pacific less severe than that in the Atlantic, the destruction caused by multiple storms in quick succession is taking its toll on a number of countries in the region.
CO2 emissions in Brazil have climbed significantly in recent years, largely due to deforestation and forest fires. Emissions last year were 10% above previous years, and this year is forecast to be 20% up. With deforestation responsible for 44% of Brazil’s emissions, the numbers significantly undermine Jair Bolsonaro’s attempts to restore the country’s environmental credentials in recent months, especially given the dip in other emissions thanks to the coronavirus pandemic.
New research from Greenpeace suggests that Africa could be in line for severe temperature increases in the coming decades - as much as 2-6°C by 2100. The catalogue of effects of this is daunting - more frequent heat waves, less rain in the south and north, more rain in central and east Africa, and a higher likelihood of uncontrolled fires and cyclones. Africa is one of the fastest growing regions in the world, and also one with little resilience to weather extremes. Once again, the effects of climate change are likely to fall disproportionately on those least responsible for causing it.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
A return to a saner world
Hopefully the US election signals a change in the country’s approach to climate. Joe Biden, despite being firmly a centrist, has ended up adopting the strongest climate platform of any presidential candidate ever, which is not to be underestimated. In a turn typical of 2020, however, we may need to wait until January to truly see how effective a Biden presidency will be - the Democrats need a Senate majority to enact major changes, and that rests on the two senatorial races in Georgia, both of which have gone to run off votes. With so much resting on these two candidates, huge amounts of money and time will pour into the contests, very much changing the dynamics.
It was feared in 2016 that lack of US leadership on the climate would potentially lead to global inaction, but if anything, the opposite has happened. The past couple of years particularly has seen both the EU and China stepping up as new leaders on the climate front, and more recently Japan and South Korea also pushing in this direction. With the US having reneged on the Kyoto Protocol and now the Paris Agreement, it will have to work hard to regain trust as a climate actor - something Trump will no doubt do his best to sabotage in his remaining days in office.
Green growth
The IEA’s about turn on renewables has continued with their latest Renewables report, covered by Carbon Brief this week. In short, renewables have been far less affected by COVID than other power generation methods, and have continued to grow apace. The next five years could see wind and solar capacity double, enough to meet 99% of global electricity demand increase. Much of the growth is in Europe and the US, where it will outpace demand increase, displacing existing fossil fuel infrastructure, whereas Asia’s demand growth will likely outpace new renewable capacity.
Spanish utility Iberdrola has unveiled a plan to triple its renewable capacity by 2030, spending €75bn to do so. The speed of the scale up is impressive - quadrupling its solar capacity, and growing offshore wind seven-fold! Over in Australia, another huge battery project has been announced for the state of Victoria, a collaboration between Neoen and Tesla. The 300MW battery would be amongst the largest in the world, and help Australia manage its ever-growing solar fleet.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Bad air and worse plumbing
This week has been largely free from many negative climate news - a rarity! However, unfortunately there’s always something. A new study found that nearly 1.1m people in the US live without piped indoor plumbing, mostly in major cities such as New York and LA. In a sadly unsurprising turn, those living in such conditions are overwhelmingly more likely to be minorities and people of colour - another legacy of racist economic and housing policies.
In India, unfortunately the stubble-burning season is in full effect, and Delhi and its surrounding area have seen very high levels of air pollution for a number of days. Air pollution is unfortunately always bad at this time of year due to the continued fires, which continue to be set despite being illegal. The COVID-19 pandemic meant clear skies for the first time in decades over many Indian cities, which makes this return to heavy pollution all the more stark by contrast.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Scientific American published an excellent exploration of how to effectively communicate scientific ideas to an audience who may not be receptive. Karin Kirk spent two months talking to hundreds of voters ahead of the US election, and found that even where there are deep divides in understanding and beliefs, there are still plenty of ways to empathise and communicate with even the most staunchly anti-climate folks.
New research suggests that corporate emissions data estimated by third party services just isn’t good enough right now. Third party firms have been trying for a while to guess emissions to help investors figure out the climate impact of firms that don’t disclose their emissions, but this research suggests that ultimately we will need universally mandated and verified emissions disclosures from everyone.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli
What about the new book of Bill Gates? is it good? does it talk about diet?