Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
It’s often hard to stay positive in today’s world. 2020, the year that seemingly never ends, has brought such a combination of crises that many of us will be glad to see it gone. However, it does feel like maybe things are turning a corner. Biden’s election is a huge boost in the US, and the announcement of likely vaccine candidates brings hope that maybe our masked isolation may yet end.
Progress is never smooth - history is a constant oscillation between progress and regression on so many issues. However, despite the many tragedies this year, we’ve seen some real forward momentum. Climate awareness is more widespread than ever before. The Black Lives Matter movement, though born out of tragedy, showed that awareness of racial injustice is broad, and there is massive desire to change. The world faces a lot of problems, but we’re moving forward. Sometimes, things slip back, but nevertheless, there is improvement in so many areas. To quote Barack Obama from a recent interview:
“better is good. Nothing wrong with better.”
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Storm seasons continue apace, despite how late in the year we’re getting. In the Atlantic, storm Theta became the 29th storm of the year, breaking the record for most storms in one season. Shortly after, Iota formed, and rapidly intensified into a category 5 hurricane, possibly the strongest seen this year. After smashing across Providencia, it made landfall in Nicaragua as a category 4, less than two weeks after Eta hit the same region. The impact of this is likely to be disastrous - the area was wrecked by Eta, and is in no state to face another, even more powerful storm. In particular, the Caribbean coast is home to indigenous communities that, aside from storms, have been hit hard by COVID, and have been fighting for years for recognition by their own governments.
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Typhoon Vamco ploughed through the Philippines and has hit Vietnam - the 13th storm this year to do so. Both countries have been continually pummelled by storms this year, with the Philippines having endured 21 storms so far.
Glaciers around the world continue to retreat. The Mer de Glace, France’s largest, has lost over ⅓ of its volume since 1990, with much of that loss occurring since 2000. Action on climate change could determine whether the Alps have any glaciers left at all by the end of the century. A similar story can be seen in China, where a study of glaciers in the Qilian mountains found a 7% retreat since 1950. Moreover, the rate of retreat was 50% faster from 1990-2010 than in the preceding decades. A change to or loss of the glaciers is likely to massively impact people in the region, who depend heavily on glacial water and the related weather patterns to grow their crops.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
A fresh, green start
In what is hopefully a sign of things to come, US President-elect Joe Biden has raised climate change in every single conversation he has had with world leaders so far. Whilst it remains to be seen what a Biden presidency looks like, climate does seem to be being taken seriously. However, even if Biden does not act as decisively as his campaign promised (whether through a mellowing of policy or Senate blockading), there is still considerable hope from the US front. The devolved nature of US politics means many decisions can be made at the state level, and there things already are looking encouraging.
Arizona on Friday approved rules to require utilities to provide 100% carbon-free energy by 2050, the third state to approve such legislation. This is a big step up from previous rules, which just specified 15% renewables by 2025. A host of far-reaching environmental rules are cropping up across the country, such as California and New Jersey calling for 100% EVs by 2035, showing that states can act decisively even without federal support.
Risky business
The UK has become one of the first countries in the world to mandate that companies disclose climate risks to their operations. Whilst some firms already do so voluntarily, mandatory reporting is vital for levelling the playing field, and helping investors determine climate exposure and move money away from environmentally damaging businesses. The plan comes into effect for the largest companies from 2021, with a scaled rollout to all businesses by 2025.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Sore loser
The Trump administration seems determined to wreak as much havoc as possible in its final weeks. Aside from continuing to spread disinformation about election results and refusing to cooperate with the handover, the administration is seemingly rushing through every last anti-climate policy they can. Last week saw the removal of the head of the US Global Change Research Project, after Trump rejected their latest report - his successor is likely to be David Legates, a Heartland Institute alumnus well known for his anti-climate stance. Now, the administration is pushing to hold a sale of oil drilling leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Normally, such a sale would take months of back and forth, but the process is being expedited, likely to try and sell the leases before Biden takes power and can stop the process.
Unequal emissions
A new study of 2018 aviation emissions found that just 1% of flyers caused half of emissions. With aviation traffic massively down due to COVID-19, the current period is seen as an ideal opportunity to establish mechanisms to limit or reduce the impact of aviation before it inevitably resurges. The cost of aviation’s environmental impact has been estimated at over $100bn a year, and with (frequent) fliers generally among the wealthiest people globally, aviation has been deemed potentially the most inequitable major emissions source.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Sometimes, pictures speak louder than words, so I’m including a photo-heavy entry this week - an exploration of the Citarum river in West Java - one of the most polluted rivers in the world. The river is relied upon by millions, but is choked with waste, chemicals and sewage, decimating wildlife and causing huge health impacts for many who live around it.
The New York Times published a deep dive into FTI, a consulting firm linked to pro fossil fuel campaigns for many of the largest oil companies. As well as leading PR and marketing campaigns, the firm funded grassroots organisations that opposed environmental legislation, and monitored climate activists online.
Finally, I wanted to include something a bit different. Some of you may have already read The Atlantic’s recent interview with Obama, but if you haven’t, I highly recommend it. Whilst not directly related to climate change, he discusses in depth the rise of disinformation and polarisation, which is a huge threat to both climate action and a well functioning society.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli