FtF News #78 - 25th November 2020
The UK’s 10 point green plan, Trump’s last hurrah and ever more CO2
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
It can sometimes feel somewhat Groundhog Day-esque writing these newsletters. With the UK still in lockdown, barring major events days and even weeks start to blur together. However, despite the pandemic, the world is moving forward, if haltingly at times. This week saw Justin Trudeau announce formal legislation to lock in Canada’s 2050 net-zero pledge. It neatly avoids setting any targets until 2030, allowing the current government to grab the glory and then avoid the troublesome business of implementation. Still, it’s a first step towards a more concrete plan to reduce emissions, and as such should be welcomed.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
The WMO has confirmed that 2019 CO2 levels hit an all time high, and 2020 is likely to see a further increase. Whilst they predict human GHG emissions will dip by 4.2-7.5% this year due to COVID-19 lockdowns, they call it a ‘tiny blip’, and small enough to be swallowed by regular fluctuations in CO2 levels. US emissions are predicted to fall 9.2% this year - the lowest since 1983, when the economy was 40% of its current size. The biggest hit was to transport - the biggest single contributor to US emissions. Whilst a rebound is expected next year, levels are still likely to be below 1990 levels - a trend that needs to continue.
A new report from the Red Cross estimates that 20% of the world’s population has been affected by a climate change-related disaster in the past decade. Such disasters have killed 410,000 people, with another 1.4bn affected, overwhelmingly in Africa and Asia. The number of such events has risen by 35% since the 1990s. In related news, of the $43.6bn in funding allocated to increase access to power, sub-Saharan Africa receives only 20%, despite having 70% of the world’s energy deficient population. In a number of nations, as little as 30% of the population have access to power.
A major investigation of the glaciers around Mt Everest has found that they have thinned by more than 100m since the 1960s, echoing similar findings from across the globe. The Himalayas are of key significance given their location and the volume of ice they contain - some have dubbed the region the world’s 3rd ice cap. Meltwaters from the area support many of the major rivers of southern and eastern Asia, from the Yangtze to the Ganges.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
UK Climate Action
Just as I published last week’s edition, the UK announced a 10 point plan on green action. It’s been hailed as a green recovery plan, with the potential to create 250,000 new jobs across the economy - something sorely needed in light of Brexit and COVID-19. Perhaps the biggest announcement was a 2030 ban on combustion engined cars - brought forward significantly from the previous date. Whilst a headline figure of £12bn in funding was touted, only around £3bn was ‘new’ funding - the rest having been promised in previous announcements or as part of the Conservative Party’s election manifesto. Nevertheless, it shows a commitment to electric vehicle infrastructure and wind power, although measures in other areas are more vague - support for nuclear power was mentioned as well as carbon capture, though the actual numbers and projects are as yet unspecified.
More importantly, the plan, whilst comprehensive, still fails to bridge the gap between current emissions and the UK’s 2050 net-zero target. The new measures cover around 55% of the difference, but so far no more information has been revealed about what will make up the remainder. The Climate Change Committee, who advise the government on climate action, will be releasing their recommendations for the UK’s sixth carbon budget in early December, which may give more insight into how those remaining emissions can be reduced or mitigated.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
A Bridge over troubled waters
Shipping is, alongside aviation, one of the biggest sources of emissions not covered by the Paris Agreement. Recently, the IMO (the UN body responsible for the industry) has been gathering to try and put together a deal to regulate and reduce shipping emissions. However, much like aviation, the discussions have been complex, and there is worry that any final agreement that gets universal buy-in will be too weak to induce meaningful progress. There are a lot of competing dynamics at play in shipping - it is by its nature a global industry - and reaching a consensus may be impossible. The EU is threatening to include shipping in its own emissions trading scheme if no decisive agreement comes out of the IMO, which could force change given that a fifth of global shipping would be affected. I’m planning to cover shipping for an upcoming Forge the Future deep dive, so hopefully will be able to explore the ins and outs more thoroughly there.
The Last Hurrah
The determination of the Trump administration to force through every last bit of pro-industry, anti-environment legislation is frankly, impressive. This week has seen the administration racing to put in place a rule to stop banks discriminating against Arctic oil drilling projects - a move to counter virtually every major bank vetoing finance for such projects. Supporting that is a loosening of safety restrictions on Arctic drilling, put in place after a rig ran aground in 2012. What’s especially bizarre about this drive to open up the Arctic for drilling is that it doesn’t even make economic sense, especially with current low oil prices. There are no drilling efforts in place now, and no companies are stepping up to take advantage of these changes.
The Arctic is not the only front being assaulted - the Trump administration has finalised a rule weakening the application of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This would allow the US Forest Service to use loopholes to bypass NEPA requirements for environmental reviews on logging or road building plans in the nearly 200m acres of forest it manages. This is part of a long-running effort to dismantle NEPA, which is often used by activists to force review of projects and is heavily disliked by many corporate interests.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Bloomberg has a couple of interesting longer reads this week. First up: a look at one of the key figures behind China’s 2060 net-zero declaration - Xie Zhenhua. One of China’s key climate diplomats, he helped bring China into the Paris agreement, and is seen as a key bridge between the Communist Party and international climate science and negotiation.
Second, a look at Imperial Valley - one of the poorest regions of California, but one that could be the heart of a lithium extraction boom as the state aims to reduce reliance on foreign lithium for the ever-increasing needs of a growing battery industry. The hope is that lithium extraction could not only supply the metal domestically, but also help rejuvenate a region with high unemployment that has been struck particularly hard by COVID-19.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli