Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
December has arrived, and with it some calming in the pace of climate news. There’s some final efforts to wrap things up by the end of the year, such as the EU’s possible higher 2030 emissions target (yay!) or Trump desperately rolling back some last pieces of environmental legislation (please stop), but largely, things are quietening down. After the rest of 2020, a little calm is more than welcome!
A welcome surprise was the announcement that Tasmania is officially 100% powered by renewables, thanks to heavy investment in hydro and wind power - the first Australian state to reach this goal. However, they’re not stopping there, with plans to extend capacity to 200% of power demand, turning the excess into green hydrogen. Hopefully, the coming years will see much more of this sort of news!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
It’s been a relatively quiet week on the weather front, after months of devastating storms and fires. Hopefully it is a genuine respite and not just that the weather events are happening in regions with less news coverage.
The Arctic is continuing its year of record heat, with a study this week showing the entire Arctic Circle (some 7.7 million square miles) averaging 6.6°C above normal. Whilst some areas are near normal temperatures for this time of year, there are some regions over 20°C warmer than normal. Warmer temperatures are also showing in Australia, which has had its hottest spring on record, despite the cooling effect of the La Niña weather phenomenon. Max temperatures in November were 2.9°C above average, with a number of cities and towns seeing heat records broken in the last few days of the month.
Warming has also manifested in other ways - cold weather drownings are rising rapidly in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in regions where many activities take place on ice. In a number of countries, activities from skating to hunting and fishing take place partially or completely on ice, and as the weather warms, ice that used to be reliable is no longer.
Something a little different to end with - a new report looked at the importance of clear graphics in IPCC reports. With the next major report due next year, the paper looked at how decision makers interpreted two graphics - one intuitive and one counter-intuitive. Unsurprisingly, more people drew the correct conclusion from the intuitive graphic, but those who assessed the counter-intuitive one incorrectly were more convinced of their answer. In a field so often filled with numbers, clear visualisations are vital, especially when they directly inform climate policy decisions.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
It’s Electric
Europe has seen really strong growth in EVs this year, and September saw new EV registrations overtake those of diesels for the first time, making up 1 in 4 new cars. Of pure electrics, Tesla still leads sales, but VW and Renault are catching up fast. The overall EV numbers still include a number of different forms of hybrid, including ‘plug-in hybrids’ - vehicles that can run on pure electric, and can be charged from a socket, but still have an engine. These have been pushed heavily by manufacturers as a good compromise between combustion vehicles and pure electric, but a new report has found that in real world driving, their emissions can be as much as 89% above reported test results. A revision of test protocols may be in order if manufacturers are to avoid sneaking around emissions targets with such vehicles.
The EU, as part of its deliberations on the Green Deal, is looking to bring in tougher standards on batteries next month. The region is trying to establish itself as a global hub for EVs and batteries away from the current leaders in SE Asia, and as part of that is looking to set stricter standards for battery manufacture, covering everything from responsible sourcing of raw materials, use of clean energy through to end-of-life concerns. As always, the size of the EU means any regulations it sets could potentially ripple out globally, and encourage manufacturers worldwide to conform.
Superblocks!
Barcelona’s superblock system has been written about extensively before - the city’s plan to create large pedestrianised zones has enraptured some and enraged others - but now the city is going further. It has unveiled a plan for the largest yet ‘superblock’, closing off 21 different streets in one of the city’s densest areas to the majority of traffic, creating 21 new pedestrian plazas and 6.6 hectares of new green space. The superblock scheme is one of the most ambitious revamps of a major European city this century, and has the potential to majorly cut pollution and improve the health of residents once complete.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
The cluck stops here
An investigation into the supply chains for chicken in the UK has revealed that many of the birds raised in the UK for major chains from Tesco to McDonald’s are fed on soy linked to deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado. Much of the soy imported for animal feed is supplied by US giant Cargill, and though it denies the links, large amounts come from farms within the most heavily deforested regions. The Cerrado is a huge tropical savanna region, and much like the Amazon, is a hotbed of diversity, and has been similarly hit by heavy deforestation for agriculture.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Hydrogen is everywhere in discussions of decarbonisation, but is a hugely complex subject - whilst it can be used for just about anything, that doesn’t mean it should or will be. Carbon Brief, in their usual style, dive deep into the topic, covering just about every possible dimension of hydrogen as a vehicle for decarbonisation (including its use in vehicles). Be warned - this one is really long.
Since the 90s, the largest public oil and gas companies have become known as the oil majors, with the largest known as ‘supermajors’. Now. however, we’re approaching an era where the next supermajors may be clean energy companies - firms that have invested heavily into renewables and are poised to play a larger part in the future than the oil majors of old.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli