FtF News #80 - 9th December 2020
Winter is coming (though you wouldn’t know it from the weather)
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
I’ll be honest, most of my attention at the moment is focused on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, which will make, or (more likely given current progress) break a lot of things here in the UK as 2021 begins. However, it was definitely encouraging to see that the UK is making some progress on the climate front, with a new 2030 emissions pledge this week (see below for more). It may be in the name of saving face for the upcoming UN climate conference this weekend, but nevertheless it puts the UK on a pretty positive path, and hopefully will inspire others to do the same.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed what many suspected - November was the warmest ever, 0.1°C above the previous record (from 2016 and 2019), and 0.8°C above the 1981-2010 average. Regardless of what happens in December, 2020 will be amongst the hottest 6 years ever, coming in either as the warmest or second warmest year ever. Right on cue, wildfires have made a resurgence in California, with tens of thousands fleeing their homes, and more still left without power. Australia is undergoing a massive heatwave, with the east of the country seeing temperatures nearly 20°C above average for this time of year.
The year has seen a brutal variety of extreme weather across the world, with Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General, recently summing up the year bluntly saying ‘humanity is waging war on nature’. Just this week saw official Brazilian figures confirming that deforestation in the country hit a 12 year high this year, up 9.5% from 2019 - largely blamed on President Bolsonaro’s tacit encouragement of deforestation and destruction of biodiversity.
Carbon Brief covered a couple of interesting climate-focused papers this week. The first looks at the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climatic pattern that affects weather from Africa all the way to Australia, and that is partly responsible for the wildfires down under at the start of 2020, and the flooding and locust swarms that have plagued Africa. The link between the Dipole and global warming has not been understood until recently, but it now looks as though warming will cause an decrease in mild Dipole events and an increase in severe ones - meaning that 2020 could be a taste of what’s to come.
The second paper explores the role of humidity in warming. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and due to land warming faster than oceans, relative humidity over land is generally decreasing as the planet warms. The effects of this can include more rainfall and extreme events such as hurricanes, as well as increasing the likelihood of wildfires. Monitoring ocean surface humidity is key to understanding this better, but unfortunately, the number of ships providing those measurements is decreasing, lowering the amount of data available.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Pledging to do more
The UK may be making a real shambles of Brexit, but at least they seem to have grasped climate change rather more firmly. In the lead-up to a UK-hosted UN climate summit on December 12th, the UK has increased its 2030 emissions pledge to a 68% cut versus 1990 levels, nearly the maximum of the options it was considering. The previous goal was 57%, but that was set before the UK committed to reaching net-zero by 2050. It still remains to be seen how the UK will meet this new pledge, but it’s a step in the right direction, and may help encourage the EU, which is still weighing up a 55% 2030 goal.
New Zealand declared a climate emergency this week, passing the motion tabled by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The legislation is largely symbolic, but the call for the country to take responsibility for future generations and its South Pacific neighbours is very much welcome. Many of the current pledges and legislation passed across the world are symbolic, but as Climate Action Tracker recently estimated, recent pledges have in theory brought the world from a 2.9°C temperature rise in 2100 to around 2.1°C. More is still needed, but it’s looking like it may actually be possible to reach a 1.5°C world. We do, however, need to hold world leaders accountable to those pledges, and make sure that once the headlines fade, the concrete actions still happen to make these huge global shifts happen.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
#Astongate
A report compiled by Aston Martin and several other carmakers claimed that the time for EVs to “pay back” their production emissions was way higher than in reality. The report claimed a figure three times that supported by scientific literature, and was widely reported by the UK press. Aston Martin is trying to distance itself from the publication, but there are strong links to senior figures within the company. The report was released shortly after the UK’s announcement that its ban on combustion engined vehicles will move up to 2030, and comes as Aston Martin is struggling with a transition to hybrid or electric vehicles.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
A look at Exxon’s largest carbon capture project in La Barge, Wyoming, which was immediately shelved due to COVID-induced spending cuts, despite the company spending billions on oil extraction elsewhere. Whilst oil companies are best placed to implement carbon capture, right now the incentives and regulations just aren’t there to ensure they do what’s right.
US federal air quality monitors, despite being used to inform air quality regulations, have a catalogue of problems and are barely fit for purpose. Reuters dives into the many issues with the monitoring network, from monitors being deliberately placed out of polluted areas, monitors not being on during key events, and the monitors being capped at low levels, hiding true pollution levels.
The New York Times explored the impacts of air pollution, particularly wildfire smoke, on children’s health in California. Whilst the article focuses on the massive impacts of wildfires in the state, particularly this year, the lessons and patterns apply across the world, with so many places suffering from poor air quality across the globe.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
The first lab grown meat has been approved for sale in Singapore.
A California startup claims to have created batteries which could be up to 80% better than lithium-ion.
The UK’s first electric-only charging station has opened in Essex, the first of a planned 100.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli