Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Christmas is fast approaching, though it’s hard to feel particularly festive this year. The UK is easing COVID restrictions for people to travel during the break, but while understandable, it’s hard to see it as a good idea. It’s going to be a stressful few weeks for many, and with the near inevitable prospect of post-Christmas lockdowns looming, it’s hard to really get into the spirit of things. That being said, I’ll pass on a festive Christmas if the UK can manage to avoid a no-deal exit from the EU, but sometimes we don’t get what we wish for.
I came across this amazing interactive Sankey chart showing the history of US energy from 1800 through to 2019. Does anyone know of any equivalent sites or charts for other places in the world? It feels like an amazing tool to explore the evolution of not just energy, but the changing state of social and technological progress - it’d be amazing to see how such histories differ across the world!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Australia’s fire season has begun again, with a major fire burning through half of Fraser Island since it started around seven weeks ago. This year’s fire season is expected to be less intense due to the influence of La Niña, but some fires are still inevitable. On top of the flames, NSW and Queensland are under flood warnings after the area received nearly half a metre of rain in 24 hours - the flood warnings even covering fire-struck Fraser Island.
Research on the effect of last year’s Australian wildfires found that the amount of smoke particles pushed in the upper atmosphere was so great it had a (slight) cooling effect on the globe, similar to a major volcanic eruption. This was due to the pyrocumulonimbus clouds - huge storm clouds caused by the fires, that whipped smoke particles far up into the upper atmosphere, where they can still be detected even now by satellite instruments. A ‘volcanic scale’ pyrocumulonimbus event has only been seen once before, though a warming world means such events will become more likely, increasing the urgency of understanding the behaviour of these phenomena.
Break Free From Plastic’s annual survey of plastic waste has named Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Nestlé the top plastic polluters for the third year in a row. The companies are accused of ‘zero progress’, with Coke in particular responsible for more waste than the other two firms combined. All three firms have claimed to be making headway in reducing their waste problem, but that’s not yet reflecting in the amount of waste ending up in the environment, which is still rising year on year.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
A mixed bag
This last weekend saw a UN Climate Summit, joint-hosted by the UK and France. It celebrated five years since the Paris agreement, and was widely seen as a chance for countries to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The UK increased its 2030 emissions target to 68% below 1990 levels in advance of the meeting, and also finally agreed to stop financing overseas oil and gas projects - something it has sunk £3.5m into in the last five years.
Overall, reactions have been mixed to the summit, as it contained relatively few big new pledges. Many were hoping Chinese Premier Xi Jinping would give more details on September’s net-zero pledge, but bar some small lowering of emissions intensity targets, little was forthcoming. Pakistan announced that it will build no more new coal-fired power stations, and plans for 60% of its energy to come from renewables by 2030, which is a significant move for the country.
An announcement that came just before the UN summit was that EU leaders finally agreed to a 55% emissions cut by 2030, up from the previous target of 40%. The deal was eventually agreed by allowing Eastern European nations to decarbonise more slowly, making up the balance with rapid cuts elsewhere, as well as a sizeable fund to help ease the transition.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Reality still looms
The UN summit this week took place just after the publication of the annual UNEP Emissions Gap report, which breaks down the difference between where current policies and targets will take us and what’s needed to avoid drastic warming. Carbon Brief dived deep into the details, but the gist is that whilst countries are much more ambitious than before, we’re still a long way from enough action to avoid even 2°C of warming. The number of countries with net-zero goals has nearly doubled from last year, and with the US included covers 63% of global emissions, but a huge amount more ambition is needed to keep warming below 2°C or even 1.5°C (a goal that looks further out of reach each year).
Another concern is whether countries are sticking to the goals they’ve already set - only nine G20 members are on track to meet their 2030 commitments, and five are definitely off track. This has been a constant concern for environmentalists, who note that while goals for 2050 sound good, they need backing with shorter term goals and real policy changes to have meaningful impact.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
As I mentioned on Twitter when I posted last week’s newsletter, the CCC (the advisory committee who inform the UK’s climate policy) released their sixth carbon budget last Wednesday. This is a big one, as it’s the first that’s separate from the EU ETS, and also includes the 2050 net-zero goal, and for the first time covers international aviation and shipping - sectors usually left out of major climate policy. As always, Carbon Brief have analysed the reports in depth - their coverage is excellent.
The Nature Conservancy has become a huge supplier of carbon offsets, providing the means for major companies such as JP Morgan Chase, Disney and BlackRock to claim much reduced carbon footprints. However, an investigation has shown that many of the claimed benefits are paper thin, with the Nature Conservancy selling offsets for protecting forests that were never in any danger of being cut down. Offsets are a complex and messy subject, although likely necessary for a speedy decarbonisation, but efforts like this undermine legitimate efforts to prevent environmental damage or store carbon.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
A huge new alternative meat factory will open in Boston (no not that Boston, this one), hopefully bringing economies of scale to vegetarian meat options in the UK.
Clean aviation is progressing apace, with British Airways partnering with startup ZeroAvia on hydrogen aircraft, and Iceland planning for all domestic flights to be electric by 2030.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them - you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli