Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Welcome back to a new year! I took a week out of writing the newsletter last week, given the generally quiet state of climate news over the festive period. Today, I thought I’d start off 2021 by looking back at the last year through a climate lens. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s dive in!
State of the world
2020 was quite the year, weather-wise. Globally, temperature records were felled across the globe, with heatwaves in Europe, the Arctic, the US, Australia and elsewhere. Death Valley saw the highest temperature ever recorded on the planet, at 130°F/54.4°C. The final temperature assessments for the year have yet to be tallied, but in late December, 2020 was looking to be either the warmest or second warmest year ever. Virtually all temperature models are now in agreement that the world has warmed well over 1°C since pre-industrial times, making the task of preventing 1.5+°C warming ever more challenging.
The Arctic in particular saw warming unlike that seen in any other year, with the entire Arctic Circle sitting over 6.6°C warmer on average, with smaller regions reaching over 20°C above their normal averages. The region also suffered devastating wildfires across much of the first half of the year, producing smoke clouds the size of Europe. Arctic ice coverage reached the second lowest level ever, and started to refreeze significantly later than any prior year. Good news for shipping, but not good for the planet - the Arctic has likely already transitioned to a different climate, with more severe changes expected in future.
Speaking of wildfires, the US suffered a particularly brutal year, with California and much of the US West enduring the worst fire season it has ever seen, with 10.3m acres of ground burned. Unlike fires in the Arctic and Amazon, which seemed distant to many, this affected millions in an advanced western nation, with world media flooded with apocalyptic orange, smoke-filled skies. Let us not forget that 2020 also saw equally devastating wildfires across much of Australia, with vast regions of the country’s forests burned to the ground, and as many as three billion animals lost in the flames.
Much of the world also saw flooding this year, including Vietnam, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, as well as large parts of Africa and even Western Europe. Many of the same regions also saw droughts in the same year, compounding problems. Another massive hit to crops came from the locust swarms that swept through much of East Africa, as well as across the Arabian peninsula all the way through to Pakistan. Whilst not directly linked to warming, they are likely exacerbated by it, and the next generation of locusts are already swarming, promising little respite for the nations devastated by the insects.
Finally, mention of weather in 2020 would not be complete without mention of storms. The Atlantic storm season featured the most named storms ever, as well as the most that made landfall in the US. This year’s Pacific storm season was also brutal, with a number of massive storms in quick succession, including Typhoon Goni - the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall ever recorded.
The Human Dimension
The year, of course, was dominated by COVID-19 and the resulting global pandemic. Travel stopped, countries panicked, many were thrown into lockdowns. The luckier were able to continue to work from home, though many have either had to continue as before through the whole situation, struggling to avoid infecting themselves or those around them, or else have lost their jobs entirely.
For many, the pandemic brought home the rising inequality in the world today. The difference between the haves and the have-nots became more apparent than ever before - supermarket workers and nurses struggling with long hours, poor pay and lacking PPE, whilst billionaire business tycoons decried the impacts of the virus and railed against lockdowns and stimulus payments. The year has also seen a brighter light brought on racial inequality - the death of George Floyd triggering widespread anger and protests about systemic inequities across much of the developed world.
And, lest we think these are somehow not relevant for a climate publication, 2020 was a year that also showed how linked all of these dynamics are. Report after report showed how much of the burden of the climate crisis lies on the shoulders of the most privileged in society - the top 1% account for over double the emissions of the poorest 50%, with the global North responsible for around 92% of excess emissions. Similarly, many reports have highlighted how much of the impact of climate change falls on the impoverished, both in less developed nations, but also the disadvantaged in the developed world. That outsize impact also falls on the shoulders of women, of people of colour, of indigenous peoples, on under-represented groups the world over.
Notes of hope
The year also saw some hopeful notes amidst the chaos. November saw Joe Biden elected in the US, ousting Donald Trump (despite his protests to the contrary), though the result was closer than many would’ve liked. This hopefully marks an end to Trump era of systematic anti-environmental stance, which saw nearly 100 major policies weakened or rolled back, not to mention the US leaving the Paris Agreement.
Notably, the elections also saw possibly the most radical platform ever adopted by a major party candidate. Joe Biden was possibly the least radical of the various Democratic presidential candidates (he is incredibly committed to toeing the middle ground), but despite that, he ran on a platform of huge decarbonisation, of green action and climate justice, committing to spending trillions on improving the US’ environmental impact. After his win, he’s bringing in the most diverse cabinet seen in US history - another testament to how mainstream climate and equality have finally become.
2020 also saw some major net-zero commitments from some of the biggest economies in the world, most notably China, which committed to carbon neutrality by 2060. South Korea and Japan also made similar pledges, and the EU and the UK both tightened their commitments. Whilst such commitments mean little without concrete action to back them up (something we’re largely still waiting on), they would have been unthinkable just a year or two ago. Progress may be late, but it is happening, and momentum is starting to build.
Renewable energy has continued to be a global success story, despite the pandemic and resulting economic slowdown. The year saw nearly 7% growth in global renewable energy generation, despite a decline in energy demand. Their price continues to plummet, and ever higher renewable penetration continues to demonstrate how far grids can green. South Australia saw 100% of its demand met by solar for a period this year, and Tasmania has declared itself 100% powered by renewable energy. The UK went over two months without using coal power (the longest period since the Industrial Revolution), and during recent winter storms generated over 50% of its energy from wind power.
Complacency is not an option
This year has also highlighted some huge issues that are increasingly relevant to the climate crisis. One is the role of business. We live in a world dominated by wealth and corporate power, and that system needs to own up to its role in the crisis we face. COVID-19 clearly demonstrated the limit to individual actions - with a huge proportion of the populations of many countries forced to stop many polluting activities, such as flying, eating out, commuting, and more, global emissions fell a mere 7%. If such a huge and destructive forced shutdown can’t dent emissions majorly, clearly the bulk of the problem lies elsewhere.
The year has also seen many of the wealthiest in the world become richer than ever, with the stock market sailing ever higher, all whilst so many have lost their jobs, become ill or died as a result of this pandemic. It feels clear that the system is out of balance, and needs a large readjustment. The solution is as yet unclear, but more accountability for the most powerful individuals and corporations across the globe seems a must for overcoming the looming threat of climate change.
Another key threat in 2020 has been disinformation. Our increasing reliance on tech companies and the internet has seen our societies blindsided by their vulnerability to disinformation. There have always been those with fringe beliefs, but this year has seen a rise in vaccine denial, conspiracy theories, white supremacy and much more. Merely highlighting the truth is no longer enough to combat such issues, we need to address the system that not only allows such beliefs to spread, but actively encourages and profits from them. Disinformation as it stands threatens climate change action, democracy, public health and far more.
There’s so much more that happened in 2020 that I’ve not had a chance to cover - farmers’ protests in India, protests against police brutality in Nigeria, and countless other events - but compressing a year into a single email is hard, let alone one as eventful as 2020.
Looking back, and forwards
Personally, it's been a really tough year. I’ve continued to struggle with mental health issues over much of 2020, which has made it hard to keep going. Nevertheless, I’m extremely mindful of the privilege I have - I’m financially secure enough that I’ve been able to last the year without an income, and being able to work from home is a luxury many do not have. I’ve been able to continue working full time on climate-related projects, though a sustainable income from this is still a long way off. Despite this, I struggle to think of another cause I'd rather be working towards, and I’m hoping some new projects I started this year may start to show progress in the coming months.
Thank you all for reading and supporting Forge the Future - your comments, suggestions and feedback are what keep me turning these out each week. As always, you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com. Here’s hoping 2021 turns out well for all of us.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli