FtF News #84 - 13th January 2021
Electric vehicles, the legacy of 2020, and of course, the attempted coup
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
As perhaps was inevitable, 2021 has started off much where 2020 left off. The UK is in lockdown for the foreseeable future, and in my home city of London, we’re seeing case levels rising above 1 in 30 people. We did at least finally secure a Brexit deal (at the last possible minute, naturally), though the full implications of it are still being worked out. On the environmental front, it seems to be a mixed bag – on the one hand, it commits the EU and UK to improving emissions targets in lockstep, meaning neither can fall behind or risk the entire agreement. On the other hand, we’re already seeing signs of post-Brexit rule relaxation, including neonicotinoid use and the UK’s continued export of plastic waste to developing countries.
The big story this week was of course the attempted coup in the US. Much has been written about this by more knowledgeable and savvy commentators than me, but it says a lot for the fractured state of the world, the rise of disinformation and conspiracy over facts. Perhaps most worryingly, it shows what many have been saying for a while – white supremacy and fascism, far from being a niche and dying cause championed by a few bigots, is alive and well, and growing as a movement. The rise of eco-fascism is alarming - and something that will become a growing threat as the effects of climate change become ever more apparent.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
It’s official – 2020 was the joint hottest year on record, tying with 2016. The planet is now 1.25°C above pre-industrial temperatures, and last year saw temperature records fall across the world, and heatwaves strike across much of the world. The year also saw a huge number of climate and weather-related disasters across the world, with insurance companies seeing record payouts. The payouts were mostly concentrated in the developed world, particularly the US, which saw 22 billion-dollar disasters last year (another record). However, that underplays the significance of disasters in the developing world, which often have a lower dollar cost but a far higher human one – Cyclone Amphan displaced 4.9m people.
A new study has estimated that committed emissions (those already in the atmosphere) could be enough to take the planet to 2.3°C – well beyond targets set by international agreements. However, that warming may be spread over centuries, so it’s not game over yet – there’s still plenty of reason to keep pushing emissions down as rapidly as possible.
Bali is struggling with a massive influx of plastic rubbish on its famous beaches, with some areas removing as much as 60 tons a day of plastic waste. The problem is particularly severe during the monsoon season, and is escalating each year. Officials are looking to clamp down on waste disposal across Indonesia, but the ultimate solution will be to move away from plastic wherever possible – a solution which will take years to fully implement.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Green goals
It’s been a good week for US climate activists, as a record turnout in the Georgia Senate run-off elections led to both seats turning Democrat. This gives the party the narrowest of majorities in the Senate (50-50 with VP Kamala Harris acting as the tiebreaker) in addition to holding the House. However, they still lack the ‘supermajority’ of 60 to pass major pieces of legislation without risking a filibuster, so either bills will have to take different forms, or try and garner bipartisan support – a tricky prospect in such divided times, particularly on a topic such as climate action.
Unfortunately, as the transition team starts to work on a handover, they’re finding that the Trump administration has done more damage than previously released. Particularly in the EPA, they’ve found deeper budget cuts, wider staff losses and more systematic elimination of climate change programs than was previously apparent. A source described ‘very carefully directed budget cuts’ to the precise programs and areas required to roll back the changes that the administration made.
Electrifying
Over 50% of new car sales in 2020 in Norway were battery electric vehicles for the first time – a crucial milestone in the journey to full electrification. Individual months have seen 50% or more BEV sales, but this is the first time the goal has been reached for the entire year. December alone saw BEV sales hit 66.7% of all new car sales.
Tesla delivered 499,550 vehicles in 2020, just shy of its half-million target, which was set before the pandemic took hold. The vehicle-maker has not avoided controversy this year, particularly around Elon Musk’s COVID denial, but nevertheless, this is an important milestone. The company’s share price has skyrocketed this year, rising over 1000% since the start of 2020. This has elevated Musk rapidly to become one of the world’s richest men, with a net worth of nearly $200bn. I’m glad that green innovation is being rewarded, but I can’t help but feel uneasy that so much wealth and power is concentrated in the hands of so few.
Despite Tesla’s growth, US vehicles actually became more polluting and less fuel efficient in 2019 for the first time in five years. The trend is at least in part due to the Trump administration’s rollback of emissions rules, leaving car-makers more able to create polluting vehicles. Another big factor is the rapid rise of SUVs and pickup trucks, which made up almost 76% of new vehicle sales in 2020, up from around 50% in 2012. This trend is particularly stark in the US, but is visible worldwide, and is currently outweighing the benefits brought by the rise of electric vehicles.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Some are more equal than others
Over 140,000 people lost their jobs in the US in December. Hidden within that headline figure was the worrying statistic that 165,000 women lost jobs, whilst 16,000 men found work. This massive gender-based disparity shows the outsize impact of the pandemic on women, who’re often in less stable work (and so let go first), and also carry the majority of the care burden. They pick up most childcare and household needs, which have increased hugely as so many have had to home school or care for families at home. Whilst this number is solely related to the pandemic, the same is true more broadly for climate change – women will be impacted far more than men, and progress on equality will be set back, possibly irrevocably.
A greener future
A new study modelling the future of Africa’s energy system suggests that renewables will account for less than 10% of the continent’s electricity generation by 2030. Massive investment is required to improve the rollout of renewables, which have seen limited take-up despite the massive latent potential for both wind and solar power. Africa is already seeing huge costs each year from climate-induced weather disasters, and struggles under a huge burden of development debt. Unless this situation is reversed, Africa may struggle to unleash its huge potential in the years to come.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
The New York Times covered the fascinating career of Dr Linda Zall, who spent much of her career working behind the scenes at the CIA. One of her main achievements was to unlock spy satellite imagery for use by the environmental sciences. The $50bn spying programs were set up to observe the US’ opponents during the Cold War, but also catalogued the huge changes in the polar regions and elsewhere over nearly six decades – information that has helped scientists out immensely since the imagery was released.
One of the many debates when assigning emissions is how to deal with goods traded across the world. Assigning to either the producer or consumer tends to misrepresent the distribution of responsibility. Carbon Brief looks at a new method that more fairly distributes emissions from traded goods between both consumer and producer based on elasticity of supply and demand.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
Massachusetts is to require 100% of new car sales to be electric by 2035, matching a similar measure by California.
Japan has approved a plan to fund a coal-fired power plant in Vietnam, going against its recently announced green ambitions, as well as previous plans to curb funding of overseas fossil fuel projects
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them – you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli