FtF News #85 – 20th January 2021
Rising SUV emissions, the impact of air pollution, and hello to President Biden
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
This edition is coming to you on the day of Joe Biden’s inauguration, though as usual, I’m writing this on Tuesday. Here’s hoping all goes smoothly, and the transition of power goes without a hitch. I think we’ve all had more than our fill of right-wing terrorists attempting to disrupt the democratic process for now. The wounds do still require healing, and the US (and elsewhere) has a long road to travel to reach a more unified position. However, in a time when COVID-19 still rages across much of the world, and the climate continues to worsen, I’ll take a bit of hopeful news for once!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
Turkey is currently suffering a severe drought, with Istanbul down to just 45 days of water, and other major cities not far behind. The drought has been building for some time, and is thought to be due to a combination of aggressive development and climate change, with the problem intensifying in recent years.
A new study has linked PM2.5 particulate pollution to hundreds of thousands of stillbirths and miscarriages in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh each year. This is one of the first studies to try and link pregnancy loss to air pollution, and found that it could be responsible for up to 7% of all such losses between 2000 and 2016. Continuing the air pollution trend, new analysis of data from the lockdowns last year has found that pollution didn’t dip nearly as much as previously thought. Whilst NO2 dropped noticeably, the dip was half of what was previously reported, and PM2.5 levels barely dropped or even increased in all bar the most polluted of the cities analysed.
Russia is preparing to make the earliest ever shipment along the Northern Sea Route – the shipping channel across the north of Russia. If successful, it would be nearly two weeks earlier than last year, which was a new record itself. The shipping route broke records last year by opening earlier and staying open far later than any previous years, a trend that is only likely to continue. It’s feared that if plans to use the route more extensively come to pass, the Arctic will become ever more polluted. Only this week a study found microplastics in 96 of 97 water samples from across the region, a damning sign of the damage already done.
There have been repeated studies highlighting the impact of humanity on insect life, but broader research has concluded that the planet is losing 1-2% of all insect species each year. More study is required, as currently it’s not clear if this shocking level of decline is limited just to insects, or indicative of similar declines across all biodiversity. A large group of leading climate experts have warned yet again of a future of mass extinction and climate disruption, urging both the public and governments to take the threat of climate change and biodiversity loss far more seriously than they do now.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
A Changing of the Guard
Today sees the inauguration of Joe Biden, and hopefully a change of pace in the US. It will be good to see the back of Trump in so many ways – his anti-environmentalist agenda was just one dimension to a presidency that has sown division and put paid to the myth of American exceptionalism in the eyes of many beyond US borders. However, his legacy will take a long time to unravel, from regulation changes to the deep-seated divides that split the country more strongly than any time in recent memory.
A Biden presidency should hopefully bring a renewed focus on the environment, with the new president planning to rejoin the Paris Agreement immediately, as well as reportedly cancelling the controversial Keystone XL pipeline on day 1. Longer term, it’s hard to say what the new administration will bring – however radical the Democratic platform was for this election, such plans are inevitably tempered by the realities of political office. However, hopefully the mighty ship USA will begin to turn more towards a climate positive heading, although it may be slower than we might want.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
The Rise of the Land Barge
According to the IEA, carbon emissions fell across all sectors in 2020 bar one – SUVs. SUV sales have been rising rapidly for the past decade, and in advanced economies are often the only area of energy-related emissions growth. Overall, SUV emissions have nearly tripled in the past decade, and are now equivalent to the entire maritime industry. Whilst EVs will displace some of this (44% of new EV models are SUVs this year), 97% of SUVs sold are powered by fossil fuels, and even electric SUVs consume significantly more energy than their more compact counterparts. In the US, SUV sales are now over 50% of all vehicle sales, and only set to rise further.
The Climate Debt grows
The UN has warned that countries are adapting too slowly to climate change, especially to the effects of extreme weather. In particular, development aid is sorely lacking – only $30bn is currently provided each year, less than half of the $70bn needed right now, let alone the $140-300bn that will be required by the end of the decade. Green COVID economic recovery plans could help bridge some of this gap, but there needs to be a reversal of the current trends towards nationalism seen across the world.
In related news, a new study has examined the impact of climate change on child nutrition. It has found that for many children in low- and middle-income countries, the negative impacts of climate change could well outweigh even the positive impacts of economic development. Whilst child malnutrition has been on the decline for decades, the number affected has risen since 2015, with 1 in 5 children suffering today. Of those, the vast majority are in low- and middle-income countries.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
An increasing number of firms are incorporating carbon capture into their plans to zero out their emissions. However, the planet can only accommodate a certain volume of new trees, and the sheer amount of carbon capture and offsets being promised means that the numbers don’t add up – there may not be enough land to go around. This is compounded by companies turning to offsets rather than tackling the more tricky task of reducing their emissions. Ultimately, we need to be more critical of companies’ net zero plans, calling out firms that rely too heavily on offsets.
E-commerce firms have gone from strength to strength as many work from home during the pandemic. However, what’s often less publicised is the impact that these industries have on the communities which host their warehouses and distribution centres – often deprived neighbourhoods which suffer under constant noise and air pollution.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
A Bangladeshi man has successfully fought deportation from France due to the high air pollution in his homeland.
The EU will need to double the share of electricity produced by renewables to nearly 70% by 2030 to hit climate neutrality by 2050.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them – you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli