FtF News #87 – 3rd February 2021
The shift to EVs accelerates, and the UK is slipping on its climate commitments
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
We’re somehow already in February, with the weeks blurring together into an endless cycle of locked down repetition (for those of us in the UK at least). Still, with generally positive news coming from across the pond, it feels like the world may be slowly getting back on track. Whilst the constant headlines of climate doom are certainly wearing, I enjoyed this piece from The Atlantic on staying positive and striving for progress. I think this sentence really sums up the climate crisis very well:
Looking at these problems from a distance, they seem like impenetrable, mountainous barriers to a good future, but in every case, there is a path through.
It can often seem hopeless, but there’s always a way forward. Here’s hoping we can find it.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
In what’s becoming a regular theme, another study of the effects of weather has found that 480,000 people were killed by extreme weather events in the last 20 years. The events are estimated to have cost the global economy $2.56tn. Puerto Rico, Myanmar and Haiti were the worst hit areas, and generally the effects were far more severe in less developed countries, once again highlighting the need for increased funding to help such nations adapt or mitigate the effects of climate change. Good timing for an Oxfam report this week, which highlighted the increasing climate inequality linked to wealth – the richest 1% have emitted twice as much as the poorest 50% of the world’s population over the past 25 years.
The first global assessment of shark and ray numbers has found a staggering drop in population, with oceanic sharks and rays declining by 71% since 1970. The main cause is overfishing, with even incidental catches often welcomed by fishermen. However, with increasing research has come better understanding of how to reduce incidental catches, but implementation will require support from governments across the world.
Humpback whales may also be struggling in a warming world, with the number of calves being born declining significantly in the last 15 years. Baleen whales were thought to be more resilient than many other creatures to the changes in the seas, but this finding suggests that they may be more affected than previously understood.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
It’s electrifying!
The Biden administration’s shift towards a climate-centric focus has prompted GM to move forward its electrification plans. The company plans to have an all-electric vehicle lineup by 2035, ahead of full carbon neutrality by 2040. It has quite the hill to climb though – only 20,000 of the 2.55m vehicles it sold in the US last year were electric. Included in those presidential announcements was a proclamation that all federal vehicles will be replaced by electric, US-made vehicles. Given that the federal vehicle fleet numbers some 650,000, that’s a good boost for US EVs, though it is unlikely to fuel an electric transition on its own. EV sales rose 43% globally in 2020, with many experts saying that the tipping point is not far off now. Cost is one of the biggest barriers to switching at the moment, though once people do make the leap, over 90% say they wouldn’t go back to a fossil fuel vehicle.
Electrification of vehicles as a whole is accelerating massively. Whilst funding is still lower than renewable energy investment, it is growing far faster, and electrification is spreading from cars to trucks, construction vehicles and even ferries. Even some oil companies are seeing the writing on the wall, with Shell this week purchasing the UK’s largest public EV charging network, Ubitricity, for an undisclosed amount. The company is also scaling up investments in wind power as it tries to make good on its 2050 net-zero promise.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
It’s all in the details
The UK has been pushing strongly towards a cleaner future, but behind the big 2050 net-zero target, things are slipping on a number of fronts. Home heating is one such area, with heat pump installations currently 20 times below the 600,000 annual installs targeted for 2028. Adoption is poor, with many either not knowing what they are, or struggling to put up the significant costs for installation. They are also proving costly for homes with poor insulation, a chronic problem in the UK (I can attest to my own flat’s inability to retain heat!). The much-hyped £2bn Green Homes scheme, a bid to assist homeowners with the costs of improving their houses, has fallen completely flat, with poor organisation and slow implementation meaning customers can’t get vouchers, and installers aren’t getting paid.
Elsewhere, the UK is also falling behind on EV infrastructure ahead of the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales. To be ready for the ban, the UK needs to install 35,000 chargers a year, and is currently only installing around 7,000.
On the power front, the UK is generally performing well, with 2020 the first year that renewables overtook fossil fuels as the biggest source of electricity – 42% versus 41% coming from fossil fuels. However, this week a legal bid to stop the country building what will become Europe’s largest gas power plant has failed, with approval coming despite criticism of the environmental impact. Once built, the plant could produce up to 75% of the UK power sector’s emissions.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Grist has featured several excerpts from a new book offering positive visions of a world beyond the climate crisis, and philosophies and ideas that could take us there. We all need a little inspiration from time to time!
Another Grist story worth reading this week is their look at Little Village, Chicago. The area is consistently one of the most polluted in the city, as well as suffering from high unemployment. Unsurprisingly, it’s also largely non-white, and despite having the highest rates of coronavirus cases in the city, residents are less likely to receive vaccines than those elsewhere. It highlights once again how connected various forms of injustice are – those affected by pollution are generally those hardest hit by so many other issues – poverty, unemployment, COVID. However, that also means that a coordinated solution has the potential to solve many problems in one sweep.
Hydropower is Africa’s biggest renewable energy source, but is threatened by climate change, which could impact power generation. A new study suggests that floating solar could be the solution – not only could it hook into existing grid connections, it could help mitigate evaporation and improve output from the hydro stations as well. Covering just 1% of African reservoirs could equal the electricity generated from hydropower and increase electricity generation from dams by 50%.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
An investigation found that Alberta paid $28k for a report painting hundreds of climate journalists as part of a grand environmental conspiracy theory.
Japan’s famous tiny Kei cars could be under threat from electrification, which is pushing prices beyond the range of their main buyers.
Mastercard has set a net-zero goal for 2050 – the first main payment processor to do so.
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them – you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli