FtF News #91 – 3rd March 2021
More climate action required as emissions return to pre-COVID levels...
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Before we dive into things, I just wanted to mention another project that I’ve been working on in the background since the middle of last year. Avid readers may remember the deep-dive I wrote on the environmental impact of aviation for FtF. That research inspired me to take a deeper look at clean aviation, and I’ve been working to understand more ever since! I’m no aviation expert, but am figuring things out as I go, and writing up my progress alongside other insights on decarbonising aviation – check it out here if you’re interested. Anyhow, onto the news!
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the oceanic current that powers the Gulf Stream, is at its weakest in over 1,000 years. Climate change is the most likely cause, and further weakening could see more storms hitting the UK, more intense winters, and an increase in heatwaves and droughts across Europe. It’s thought that the current could weaken a further 34-45% by 2100, at which point it could become irreversibly unstable. That’s a long way off for now, but even a weakening could see significant weather shifts across Europe.
Polar bears and narwhals are using as much as four times as much energy to survive due to major Arctic sea ice loss. The bears in particular are adapted for a low energy lifestyle, and are having to hunt for longer or to prey on less energy-dense foods to survive. Similar impacts are likely across the Arctic ecosystem as specialist species find their adaptations unsuited to the rapidly changing environment.
A new study of river colours in the US has discovered that over a third of previously-blue rivers have turned either yellow or green in the past three decades. The reasons why are unclear, as rivers can change colour for many reasons, but could range from sediment, to algae, to human impacts.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
China’s climate ambitions might be growing?
Much coverage of China’s climate impact has centred on the growing dissonance between its net-zero target and its vast fleet of upcoming coal power plants. However, this week saw a new statement from State Grid, one of the country’s major utilities, covering around 90% of the country. It is planning to focus work on transmission lines, pumped hydro and EV charging, in what some are suggesting could be a sign of the policy direction of China’s next 5 year plan. The 5 year plans are the biggest top-level indicators of Chinese policy, and the 14th plan, which will run through to 2025, is being decided upon this week. Hopefully this announcement, along with a significant scaling of hydrogen plans by Sinopec, the Chinese oil major, signal more concrete climate policies (and maybe even an ambitious updated NDC – China and the US have yet to submit their 2020 NDCs to the UN).
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Time to pick up the pace
Speaking of NDCs, a new UN ‘synthesis’ report looked at the updated climate pledges submitted as part of the Paris Agreement. The agreement works on the basis that ambitions ratchet up over time, but last year (when the first updated NDCs were due) saw underwhelming progress. Even the most ambitious new pledges, from the EU and UK, will result in minimal real emissions cuts. Overall, across all new pledges, emissions will only drop 3% more than the original 2015 pledges by 2030, and emissions levels will only drop 0.5% versus 2010 levels, versus the 45% experts say is needed to keep warming at or below 1.5°C.
A similar message comes from elsewhere – European companies’ emissions are way too high, and Denmark’s climate watchdog called out the country for not making enough progress against its pledged targets. Meanwhile, the latest data from the IEA suggests that the COVID-induced dip in emissions is already over, with December emissions 2% higher than 2019 levels. The UK’s National Audit Office this week highlighted that car emissions are down just 1% since 2011, with growth in EVs being countered by increased road traffic and increased sales of SUVs.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Carbon Brief this week looked at marine climate tipping points, an oft-discussed topic. Rather than focusing on the big headline tipping points, such as the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, this article examines less well-known but high probability, high impact marine tipping points, fueled by factors such as deoxygenation, ocean acidification and warming. The damage to our oceans is often less visible than that to land, but the effects are massive and potentially extremely long-lasting.
Stories about fossil fuel interests lobbying down climate bills in the US is (sadly) nothing new for this newsletter, but I found this article from the Guardian a fascinating read nevertheless. It’s the first piece by a new news platform called Floodlight, that’s looking at the impacts of climate change and climate disinformation on real people, and examines gas companies in Texas. More specifically, it looks at how various gas companies have lobbied and funded campaigns to water down climate bills in numerous Texan cities. Whilst ordinary Texans largely support climate action, corporate influence is so strong that many cities and states increasingly can’t take significant steps without getting buy-in from industry, which naturally comes with heavy caveats.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
San Antonio has been left with a reported $1bn power bill after the recent winter storms, which could take a decade to pay off.
The API, the famed/dreaded fossil fuel lobbying group, may finally be coming around to the idea of a carbon price. Are they finally bowing to the inevitable?
That’s all I have for you this week. As always, thank you for reading, and if you liked it, why not share it with a friend? If you’ve any thoughts, feedback or suggestions, I’d love to hear them – you can reach me at oli@forgethefuture.com.
Stay safe, wear a mask, and see you next week,
Oli