FtF News #98 – 21st April 2021
A US climate pledge at last, ever-cheaper wind power, and coal continues to cling on
Hello, and welcome to Forge the Future, your weekly rundown of the latest climate news.
Well, apart from a slightly bizarre April snowstorm, it seems spring has finally arrived here in the UK. I must say the warmth is very welcome after what has felt like a very long grey winter in lockdown!
Earth Day is also this week (it’s tomorrow, if you’ve missed mention of it elsewhere!). The US is holding a major international climate summit to mark the occasion as part of its renewed environmental ambitions – more on that below.
State of the world
Climate research and findings, weather events and studies
A new study has found that just 3% of the world’s ecosystems remain fully intact, without impact from humanity. Previous studies based on satellite imagery have suggested that 20-40% of the surface remained untouched, but ground surveys have found that key species were absent in much more of the planet than previously thought. However, the study’s authors suggest that reintroduction of key species into certain ecosystems could help restore a significant proportion of the earth.
Drought-induced wildfires have been sweeping through much of Nepal and some parts of northern India. More than 2,700 fires were recorded between November and March, and air pollution has been spiking across the country. The fires have also destroyed vital firewood and grazing land, which will have knock-on impacts for many communities. Whilst many of the fires are thought to have been started by people (both accidentally and intentionally), the exceptional drought has meant they have spread far more rapidly than they would in less dry years.
A tropical cyclone has completely flattened a western Australian town, after wreaking havoc in parts of eastern Indonesia and Timor-Leste. That earlier damage killed at least 138 people, with many more missing, but the storm was fortunately less energetic by the time it struck the Australian coast – whilst the damage was severe, it doesn’t seem to have resulted in further loss of life. Such storms hitting the western Aussie coast are not unprecedented, but very unusual, and the frequency may be increasing.
New research suggests that rising temperatures are causing havoc with the Indian monsoon, with each 1°C of warming likely to increase rainfall by 5%. Much of India’s crops are heavily dependent on the monsoon, and either too much or too little rain can spell disaster. Unfortunately, warming is also making the monsoon less predictable, and that variability means that farmers are hard pushed to adapt or prepare adequately.
Canada may well be massively underestimating its methane emissions, if a new study is to be believed. On the ground measurements suggest that actual emissions are as much as 50% more than official estimates. Methane emissions are receiving increased focus in recent years, and with that has come a realisation worldwide that current estimates are often significantly undercounting the problem. Hopefully with more data will come renewed energy to tackle the sources of the potent greenhouse gas.
Planet positives
Moving towards a greener and more equitable world
Green ambitions
As I mentioned at the start, the US is holding an Earth Day climate summit, and is expected to unveil its updated Paris Agreement NDC beforehand. Nothing is confirmed, but it’s speculated that the US will aim for a 50% cut in emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. That would be a massive hike in ambition and demonstrate a huge reversal from past administrations. However, the amount of action required to make that happen is enormous, and much of it rides on the recently unveiled multi-trillion dollar infrastructure bill. However, with US politics being what it is, the passing of the bill (at least in a relatively intact state) is in no way guaranteed.
Even if the US achieves that target, it would hardly make it a climate leader. The EU agreed last year to a 55% cut in emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels (the US target, if adjusted back to that baseline, would be just a 40% cut). The UK is now coming forward with another updated NDC, proposing a massive 78% cut in emissions by 2030 versus the 1990 baseline. However, whilst the UK target looks impressive, as mentioned in previous posts the policies to back that up have been rather lacking, so it remains to be seen whether it is a serious ambition or more bluster.
Blowing a gale
The meteoric drop in the price of solar is well known by now in climate circles, but wind has also fallen dramatically, with prices dropping 71% in just 11 years. Moreover, a new study of wind energy prices suggests that they could fall another 50% by 2050, and potentially further still. Considering that wind is cost-competitive with other energy sources already, that puts wind power in a very strong position indeed. The driver for these huge drops? Lower capital and operating costs, and ever larger and more efficient turbines. Onshore turbines are expected to average 5.5MW each by 2035 (with a 174m diameter), whilst offshore wind turbines are expected to grow to a whopping 17MW average, with rotor diameters of 250m. It’s hard to visualise just how massive that is – each blade would be taller than the London Eye, and the whole structure would easily be the tallest building in most major cities.
Adverse circumstances
Events that move the needle in the wrong direction
Coal is down, but not out
Draft policy documents suggest India may still build more coal power plants, as it remains the cheapest source of electricity despite the climate and health consequences. Coal power’s contribution to Indian electricity generation fell for the second consecutive year in 2020, marking a sharp departure from over a decade of straight growth. The news comes as the IEA published its latest energy forecast for 2021, which suggests that the world is on track for the second largest rise in energy-related carbon emissions ever this year. The main driver? Coal plants being built across Asia. This massive rise in emissions would reverse 80% of the fall seen last year, sending us back in the wrong direction.
However, before everyone goes pointing fingers at developing nations, it’s worth considering who is financing those coal plants. New research attempts to trace funding sources for new coal plants, and finds that whilst most of the plants are located in Asia, funding sources are much more widespread, with large swathes of funding coming from developed nations in Europe and North America. The findings highlight the importance of clamping down on countries funding coal power outside their own shores – whilst some restrictions have been put in place, much more can be done in this area to reduce the continued growth of coal, and ensure that funding is funnelled into more sustainable energy sources.
Long Reads
Interesting deep-dives into climate-related topics
Inside Climate News has conducted an 18 month investigation into harmful emissions arising from various heavy oil products stored in heated tanks. The investigation not only uncovered emissions way higher than expected, but highlighted the often glaring discrepancies between the EPA’s equations to estimate emissions (often provided by the API) and real world measurements.
Oil companies cutting emissions is generally seen as a good thing. However, the way many of them are doing so is by simply divesting their most polluting assets. Unfortunately, this merely transfers the assets to less visible owners, who continue to operate them out of the spotlight. There’s a real need for a mechanism to safely and cleanly wind down polluting operations rather than simply offloading them to the highest bidder.
Quick Headlines
Some quick climate news nuggets to sate your appetite
The US federal government (the world’s largest single electricity consumer) has pledged to buy 24/7 carbon-free energy as part of the government’s new infrastructure bill.
Google has unveiled a timelapse feature in Google Earth, allowing you to scan through how the planet has changed in the last 40 years.